280
AWUS01 KWNH 061927
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-070125-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0160
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
325 PM EDT Wed May 06 2026

Areas affected...Far East TX through much of LA, MS, and western
AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061925Z - 070125Z

SUMMARY...Increasing threat of heavy rainfall with scattered to
widespread convective development initiating ahead of a
slow-moving cold front to the north. Primed environmental
conditions will allow for locally enhanced rainfall rates with
totals approaching 2-4" in some of the heavier cells that develop.
Isolated to widely scattered flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite composite indicate a rapidly
growing convective initiation regime across areas of far eastern
TX extending northeast through LA/MS/AL. A cold front situated
over east TX through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the
northern tier of AL/MS will continue to slowly sag southward with
multiple areas of surface low pressure riding along the front in
the process. First surface low is analyzed across east TX with an
enhanced convergence pattern centered to the east of the low as
flow remains backed within the area situated between the TX/LA
border north of the Lower Sabine. Area MUCAPE is between 2000-3000
J/kg in this location according to the latest mesoanalysis along
with a moisture rich environment signaled by PWAT anomalies ~2
standard deviations above normal, a testament to a deep moist
convective environment suitable for locally enhanced rates and
potential for areas to see a quick couple inches of rainfall
during impact. 12z HREF was quite robust in the signal for
neighborhood probs of >1"/hr at times with a swath of 50-80% probs
located from the TX/LA line to points northeast through much of MS
into western AL. This correlates well with the boundary layer
convergence anticipated along and ahead of the approaching cold
front as the front approaches the fairly buoyant environment
further south.

The other area of interest within this setup is across northeast
MS into northern and western AL where the second surface wave will
continue to migrate to the northeast leading to a general foci for
convective development under the lows influence. Like areas
further southwest with the low in TX, there will be an narrow
corridor of enhanced convective potential within the locally
backed flow centered just to the east and northeast of the surface
wave`s trajectory. The good news for this area is the front will
migrate through the region and begin to provide a drier theta_E
advection pattern on the backside of the low. However, the narrow
corridor of elevated theta_E`s analyzed over northeast MS into
northern AL should still be sufficient for locally heavy rain
cores, noted very well within the latest 18z WoFS iteration that
is consistent with its signature of a band of heavier convection
forming in the aforementioned area.

The general setup for the entire area encompassed by the MPD will
be suitable for heavy precip totals between 2-4" in the hardest
hit areas with hourly rates between 1-2"/hr in the strongest
cells. This is well-documented on the consistent signatures via
the latest HRRR iterations, as well as the noted prob fields from
the 12z HREF where CAMs were consistent in the potential between
now and 01z in this corridor of the Southeastern CONUS.

Kleebauer

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HGX...HUN...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...MOB...
SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   34728734 34258671 33348667 32618703 32048788
            31728853 31468925 31229027 30869157 30589263
            30439371 30399448 30879466 31379435 31879363
            32109284 32399221 32619180 32909112 33249038
            33698949 34238869 34588778