182
AWUS01 KWNH 150628
FFGMPD
NDZ000-MTZ000-151200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0724
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...Central and Northeast MT...Northwest ND

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150627Z - 151200Z

SUMMARY...An organized complex of thunderstorms with high rainfall
rates will continue to advance across central and northeast MT
overnight with some potential to also impact northwest ND. Some
localized areas of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery along with
radar shows a strong MCS advancing across central MT. Very cold
convective tops to -75C are noted with some occasional strong
overshooting top activity seen as well. This convective mass is
associated with an ejecting shortwave trough across the northern
High Plains along with a wave of low pressure that is transiting a
frontal zone draped from west-southwest to east-northeast across
the region.

MUCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are pooled along and just north
of this frontal zone, and with an axis of very strong low-level
moisture convergence. In fact, the latest kinematic analysis shows
a strongly convergent east to northeast low-level jet of 30 to 40+
kts across eastern MT. PWs are unusually high with values of 1.75
to 2.0 inches which would be in the 95th+ percentile if not at
record highs for the month of July.

This enhanced kinematic and thermodynamic environment will favor
high rainfall rates capable of reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour.
The forward propagation of the MCS will tend to mitigate the storm
total potential, but with such high rates, any localized
persistence or training of cell-activity could allow for some
rainfall totals to reach 3+ inches. The heaviest rains should be
north of the aforementioned front involving portions of central
and northeast MT and especially along a corridor from the Jordan
vicinity up through areas in between Glasgow and Wolf Point. Later
tonight, there could be some impacts of this MCS edging into
portions of far northwest ND as well.

Given the setup with at least high short-term rainfall rates, some
localized areas of flash flooding will be possible and this will
include any of the more urbanized locations.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   49450307 49270191 48630185 47990333 47270481
            46670589 46150673 45930737 46010804 46270846
            46970841 47400814 48110746 48850618 49280485