Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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FGUS63 KKRF 231938
ESPMOM
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
116 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
********************************************************
**** THESE 90 DAY FORECASTS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ****
**** AND COMPARE TO TRADITIONAL ESP AND HISTORICAL ****
********************************************************
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP, HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR
FLOODSTAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ESP VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP
OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL
IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 12/28/2025 - 03/28/2026
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:MISSOURI R AT SOUTH SIOUX CITY NE
SSCN1 30.0 33.0 36.0 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT DECATUR NE
DCTN1 35.0 38.0 41.0 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT BLAIR NE 2E
BLAN1 26.5 28.5 33.0 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT OMAHA NE
OMHN1 27.0 32.0 40.0 | <5 <5 18 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT PLATTSMOUTH NE 1E
PTMN1 26.0 32.0 35.0 | 5 5 14 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 5
:MISSOURI R AT NEBRASKA CITY NE
NEBN1 18.0 23.0 27.0 | 9 5 32 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT BROWNVILLE NE
BRON1 34.0 38.5 43.0 | 9 6 27 | <5 5 8 | <5 <5 6
:MISSOURI R AT RULO NE
RULN1 17.0 21.0 26.0 | 11 6 33 | <5 5 13 | <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT ST JOSEPH MO
SJSM7 17.0 21.0 27.0 | 15 6 25 | <5 5 11 | <5 <5 5
:MISSOURI R AT ATCHISON KS NO.1
ATCK1 22.0 27.0 30.0 | 9 6 15 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 5
:MISSOURI R AT LEAVENWORTH KS
LEVK1 20.0 24.0 30.0 | <5 5 12 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 5
:MISSOURI R AT PARKVILLE MO 5W
PKVM7 25.0 28.0 35.0 | <5 5 9 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 5
:MISSOURI R AT KANSAS CITY MO
KCDM7 32.0 35.0 49.0 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT NAPOLEON MO
NAPM7 17.0 25.0 30.0 | 20 15 29 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT WAVERLY MO
WVYM7 20.0 29.0 31.0 | 20 15 30 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT MIAMI MO
MIAM7 18.0 28.0 29.0 | 23 16 36 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT GLASGOW MO
GLZM7 25.0 27.0 32.0 | 15 14 32 | 13 9 28 | <5 <5 6
:MISSOURI R AT BOONVILLE MO
BOZM7 21.0 30.0 34.0 | 15 17 37 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT JEFFERSON CITY MO
JFFM7 23.0 25.0 30.0 | 13 8 25 | 8 6 14 | <5 <5 5
:OSAGE R AT ST THOMAS MO
STTM7 23.0 30.0 35.0 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:OSAGE R AT MARI-OSA CAMPGND MO
MOAM7 19.0 22.0 25.0 | 8 8 29 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 5
:MISSOURI R AT CHAMOIS MO 1NE
CMSM7 17.0 28.0 31.0 | 25 24 49 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT HERMANN MO
HRNM7 21.0 26.0 33.0 | 21 21 52 | 5 <5 14 | <5 <5 5
:MISSOURI R AT WASHINGTON MO
WHGM7 20.0 28.0 31.0 | 14 11 31 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT ST CHARLES MO 1E
SCLM7 25.0 30.0 36.0 | 15 12 32 | <5 <5 9 | <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
ESP = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 1228 Z DH12 /DC2512231916/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 12/28/2025 - 03/28/2026
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:MISSOURI R
SSCN1 7.9/ 8.9/ 9.6/ 10.5/ 12.6/ 18.4/ 21.2/
DCTN1 16.9/ 17.8/ 18.5/ 19.3/ 21.7/ 27.1/ 29.2/
BLAN1 10.2/ 10.8/ 11.3/ 11.8/ 14.4/ 19.1/ 21.5/
OMHN1 11.6/ 11.9/ 12.2/ 13.2/ 17.6/ 23.1/ 25.6/
PTMN1 12.8/ 12.9/ 13.6/ 15.6/ 18.8/ 22.5/ 25.9/
NEBN1 7.5/ 7.6/ 8.2/ 10.2/ 13.8/ 17.2/ 19.5/
BRON1 22.3/ 22.5/ 23.2/ 26.3/ 29.3/ 33.2/ 35.8/
RULN1 5.0/ 5.5/ 6.4/ 9.7/ 12.6/ 17.9/ 19.6/
SJSM7 3.7/ 4.3/ 5.8/ 8.5/ 12.3/ 18.4/ 19.4/
ATCK1 5.1/ 5.8/ 7.5/ 11.1/ 16.0/ 21.9/ 22.9/
LEVK1 0.7/ 1.3/ 2.7/ 5.7/ 10.4/ 18.2/ 19.5/
PKVM7 6.1/ 6.7/ 8.0/ 11.2/ 15.7/ 20.7/ 22.2/
KCDM7 6.6/ 7.2/ 9.2/ 13.7/ 18.1/ 25.7/ 27.3/
NAPM7 3.8/ 4.4/ 6.3/ 10.4/ 14.7/ 21.3/ 22.5/
WVYM7 8.5/ 9.3/ 10.4/ 14.4/ 18.3/ 24.9/ 25.5/
MIAM7 5.0/ 5.9/ 7.5/ 11.8/ 17.0/ 24.7/ 25.2/
GLZM7 8.6/ 9.8/ 11.4/ 17.4/ 21.8/ 28.6/ 30.1/
BOZM7 4.7/ 6.3/ 7.9/ 14.4/ 19.0/ 26.1/ 27.1/
JFFM7 2.6/ 5.2/ 6.2/ 14.5/ 18.5/ 24.3/ 26.1/
:OSAGE R
STTM7 4.2/ 4.9/ 6.4/ 9.4/ 12.5/ 13.3/ 14.1/
MOAM7 0.8/ 2.6/ 4.0/ 12.1/ 16.0/ 18.6/ 19.5/
:MISSOURI R
CMSM7 0.6/ 2.5/ 4.3/ 12.6/ 16.9/ 21.1/ 23.0/
HRNM7 3.1/ 5.8/ 6.3/ 14.5/ 19.5/ 24.6/ 25.9/
WHGM7 1.4/ 4.0/ 4.5/ 11.8/ 16.7/ 21.4/ 22.4/
SCLM7 8.2/ 10.4/ 11.8/ 18.8/ 22.8/ 26.3/ 27.3/
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 1228 Z DH12 /DC2512231916/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 12/28/2025 - 03/28/2026
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:MISSOURI R
SSCN1 5.4/ 5.2/ 4.9/ 4.8/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/
DCTN1 14.7/ 14.4/ 14.2/ 14.1/ 14.0/ 13.9/ 13.9/
BLAN1 8.2/ 7.9/ 7.6/ 7.5/ 7.5/ 7.4/ 7.3/
OMHN1 8.8/ 8.5/ 8.2/ 8.1/ 8.0/ 7.9/ 7.8/
PTMN1 10.6/ 10.5/ 10.2/ 10.0/ 9.9/ 9.8/ 9.7/
NEBN1 5.2/ 5.1/ 4.9/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.6/ 4.6/
BRON1 20.3/ 20.2/ 19.9/ 19.4/ 19.2/ 19.0/ 18.8/
RULN1 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.4/ 3.1/ 2.9/ 2.8/ 2.7/
SJSM7 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.3/ 2.0/ 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.6/
ATCK1 4.1/ 4.0/ 3.8/ 3.5/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.0/
LEVK1 -0.3/ -0.3/ -0.6/ -0.8/ -1.0/ -1.1/ -1.2/
PKVM7 5.2/ 5.1/ 4.9/ 4.7/ 4.5/ 4.4/ 4.3/
KCDM7 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.5/ 5.1/ 5.0/ 4.9/ 4.7/
NAPM7 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.7/ 2.4/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 1.9/
WVYM7 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.1/ 6.7/ 6.6/ 6.4/ 6.2/
MIAM7 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 2.9/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.4/
GLZM7 7.2/ 7.1/ 7.0/ 6.6/ 6.4/ 6.2/ 6.0/
BOZM7 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.1/ 2.9/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.2/
JFFM7 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.6/ 0.4/ -0.1/ -0.3/ -0.6/
:OSAGE R
STTM7 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 1.9/
MOAM7 -0.9/ -1.1/ -1.1/ -1.3/ -1.5/ -2.0/ -2.2/
:MISSOURI R
CMSM7 -1.6/ -1.8/ -1.8/ -2.1/ -2.2/ -2.8/ -2.9/
HRNM7 0.6/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.2/ 0.0/ -0.6/ -0.9/
WHGM7 -0.9/ -1.1/ -1.2/ -1.4/ -1.6/ -2.3/ -2.6/
SCLM7 5.7/ 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.2/ 5.0/ 4.4/ 4.1/
.END
$$