Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
472
FNUS74 KMOB 031009
FWSMOB
Spot Forecast for Three Rivers Fire...USFWS
National Weather Service Mobile AL
509 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 CDT on August 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
...LOW DISPERSION INDEX AROUND 16 EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE BURN AREA...
.DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
possible once again today with rain chances this afternoon around
60%. Rain chances remain high into tonight around 70%. Winds this
morning will be out of the northeast at around 5 mph, shifting to
out of the southwest this afternoon around 5 to 10 mph. Winds then
shift back out of the north to northeast tonight, eventually
becoming easterly overnight tonight around 5 to 10 mph. Relative
humidity values remain high greater than 70% throughout the day
today into tonight. Dispersions will be generally poor this
afternoon.
Fog potential and other remarks...Fog is not expected.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers
and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the west
around 6 mph late in the afternoon, then
shifting to the southwest late in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...427-671 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 7 mph shifting to the west around 7
mph in the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.North around 3 meters/second shifting to the
west in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....9 increasing to 16 in the late morning and
afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....2.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........68 77 58 54 55 52 64 55 39 37 35 35
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 40 40 50 50 50 60 60 60 60 60
Temp............80 79 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 87 88 87
RH..............91 97 91 85 85 80 77 75 70 70 70 72
20 FT wind dir..NNE NNE NNE NE NNE NNE NNE WNW W WSW WSW SW
20 FT wind spd..7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.10 12 10 10 12 10 10 10 12 12 12 12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0
Mix hgt (km)....0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.N NNE NNE NNE NNE NNE NNW WNW W WSW WSW WSW
Transp wind spd.7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7
Trans wind dir..N NNE NNE NNE NNE NNE NNW WNW W WSW WSW WSW
Trans spd (m/s).3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Dispersion idx..4 13 13 14 16 15 15 16 16 17 16 17
LVORI...........6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely early in the evening, then
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
evening and overnight. Showers and
thunderstorms likely after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 78.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
northwest around 6 mph late in the evening,
then shifting to the east 6 to 7 mph late in
the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...396-610 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 6 mph shifting to the north around
7 mph late in the evening, then shifting to the
east overnight shifting to the northeast around
8 mph early in the morning.
Transport winds m/s.West around 3 meters/second shifting to the
north late in the evening, then shifting to the
east overnight shifting to the northeast around
4 meters/second early in the morning.
Dispersion index....16 decreasing to 6.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....4.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........49 61 55 61 69 47 44 50 51 50 72 70
Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).60 40 40 40 50 50 50 50 50 50 70 70
Temp............87 86 84 84 84 84 83 82 82 81 81 80
RH..............72 75 80 80 80 82 82 88 88 91 88 91
20 FT wind dir..SW WSW WSW W NW ENE E ENE E E E NNE
20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8
20 FT wind gust.10 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.5
Mix hgt (km)....0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W W W WSW N N SE ESE E E ESE ENE
Transp wind spd.6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8
Trans wind dir..W W W WSW N N SE ESE E E ESE ENE
Trans spd (m/s).3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4
Dispersion idx..16 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 8
LVORI...........3 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 5 6
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely early in the morning, then
showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 7 mph shifting to the
southeast late in the afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...396-610 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 8 mph shifting to the southeast in
the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.Northeast around 4 meters/second shifting to
the southeast in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....12 increasing to 20 in the late morning and
afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....3.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........71 82 73 75 76 73 70 67 69 70 72 70
Weather cov.....LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Chc of pcpn (%).70 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80
Temp............80 79 80 81 83 83 84 84 85 86 86 85
RH..............91 97 94 91 85 85 80 80 77 72 72 75
20 FT wind dir..ENE ENE E E NE ENE E E ESE SE SSE SSE
20 FT wind spd..8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
20 FT wind gust.13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Mix hgt (km)....0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.ENE ENE E E E ESE SE SE SE SSE SSE SE
Transp wind spd.8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
Trans wind dir..ENE ENE E E E ESE SE SE SE SSE SSE SE
Trans spd (m/s).4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Dispersion idx..7 14 14 16 18 19 20 20 20 21 21 21
LVORI...........6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
$$
Forecaster...25
Requested by...Sami Gray
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2518997.4/MOB
.DELDT 08/03/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david_stoesz@fws.gov,melanie_dolan@fws.gov,sami_gray@fws.gov