Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
523
FNUS74 KMOB 021012
FWSMOB
Spot Forecast for Three Rivers Fire...USFWS
National Weather Service Mobile AL
512 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 CDT on August 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected today with rain chances peaking around 70% this afternoon
over the burn area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
possible into the night tonight with rain chances diminishing to
around 40 to 50%. Relative humidity values remain near or above
70%. Winds this morning will be out of the west to west-southwest
around 5 mph, shifting to out of the southwest around noon at 5
to 10 mph. After sunset, winds shift to be out of the west-
northwest to northwest at less than 5 mph before becoming
northeasterly less than 5 mph overnight tonight. Dispersion values
will be fair for the burn area.
Fog potential and other remarks...Fog is not expected.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers
and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph shifting to the
southwest 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...549-671 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 10 mph.
Transport winds m/s.West 3 to 4 meters/second.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 26.
LVORI...............4.
Stability class.....2.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........54 54 48 41 50 55 50 39 36 37 41 48
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).30 50 50 50 50 50 50 70 70 70 60 60
Temp............83 82 83 83 85 86 87 88 88 89 88 88
RH..............88 91 88 88 82 80 75 72 72 70 72 72
20 FT wind dir..W W WNW NNW WNW WSW WSW SW SW SW SW WSW
20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8
20 FT wind gust.9 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 12 12 12 12
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2
Mix hgt (km)....0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W WSW WSW SW SW SW WSW
Transp wind spd.10 9 8 7 7 7 6 8 8 9 9 9
Trans wind dir..W W W W W W WSW WSW SW SW SW WSW
Trans spd (m/s).4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
Dispersion idx..7 23 21 17 17 14 16 20 22 26 26 25
LVORI...........5 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Thunderstorms
likely in the evening. Showers likely through
the night. Chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 80.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening becoming
light, then becoming northeast around 5 mph
early in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...457-671 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 9 mph shifting to the northwest
around 6 mph late in the evening, then shifting
to the northeast 5 to 6 mph overnight shifting
to the northwest around 5 mph after 3 am
shifting to the north 5 to 6 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Southwest around 4 meters/second shifting to
the west 3 to 4 meters/second in the evening,
then shifting to the northwest around 3
meters/second late in the evening shifting to
the northeast 2 to 3 meters/second overnight
shifting to the northwest around 2
meters/second shifting to the north 2 to 3
meters/second after 3 am.
Dispersion index....23 decreasing to 5.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....4.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........54 55 51 39 42 42 48 42 51 62 62 53
Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60 40 40 40 60 60 60 50 50 50 60 60
Temp............88 86 85 84 83 84 83 82 82 81 82 81
RH..............72 77 80 82 85 82 85 88 88 91 85 91
20 FT wind dir..WSW WSW W W WNW NW N N NNE NNE NE ENE
20 FT wind spd..7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6
20 FT wind gust.10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.8
Mix hgt (km)....0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW W W WSW NW NW NNE NE ENE NW NNE N
Transp wind spd.8 9 8 7 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 6
Trans wind dir..SW W W WSW NW NW NNE NE ENE NW NNE N
Trans spd (m/s).4 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 2 3
Dispersion idx..23 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4
LVORI...........3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 6
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely in the morning, then
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
south around 6 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...396-823 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 7 mph shifting to the south around 7
mph in the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.North around 3 meters/second shifting to the
south in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....8 increasing to 21 early in the morning.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....3.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........67 56 57 57 57 56 54 53 54 56 57 59
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Chc of pcpn (%).60 70 70 70 70 70 70 80 80 80 80 80
Temp............81 80 82 82 84 85 86 87 87 87 87 86
RH..............88 94 88 88 82 80 75 72 72 72 72 75
20 FT wind dir..NE NE ENE E ESE SE SSE S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Mix hgt (km)....0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Transp wind dir.N NNE E E E ESE SE SSE S S S SE
Transp wind spd.7 6 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
Trans wind dir..N NNE E E E ESE SE SSE S S S SE
Trans spd (m/s).3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Dispersion idx..4 11 19 21 18 19 21 21 21 23 22 22
LVORI...........6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
$$
Forecaster...25
Requested by...Sami Gray
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2518997.2/MOB
.DELDT 08/02/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL sami_gray@fws.gov,david_stoesz@fws.gov,melanie_dolan@fws.gov