Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
781
FNUS74 KMOB 032224
FWSMOB
Spot Forecast for Three Rivers Fire...USFWS
National Weather Service Mobile AL
524 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 CDT on August 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
...LOW DISPERSION INDEX AROUND 15 EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
BURN AREA...
.DISCUSSION...Storms will continue to develop near the burn site over
the next several hours before a brief break in the storms overnight.
Expect another round of showers and storms to develop near the burn
site as early as 6am on Monday with hit or miss storms expected again
throughout the morning and afternoon. Winds will turn northerly tonight
as a weak front stalls along the coastline. By sunrise, light winds
will likely turn northeasterly while turning southerly by the afternoon.
Gusty, erratic winds are expected near any thunderstorms. RH remains
high through Monday and only falls to around 70 percent by mid-afternoon.
Fog potential and other remarks...Patchy, light fog is possible in the
pre-dawn hours on Monday.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely early in the evening, then
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
evening and overnight. Showers and
thunderstorms likely after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 79.
Max humidity........91 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph early in the evening
becoming light, then becoming northeast around
5 mph overnight becoming light becoming
northeast around 5 mph after 3 am. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...335-671 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 7 mph shifting to the east 5 to 6 mph
overnight.
Transport winds m/s.West around 3 meters/second shifting to the
east 2 to 3 meters/second overnight.
Dispersion index....19 decreasing to 4.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....4.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........57 58 53 60 56 56 51 42 59 57 68 72
Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).60 40 40 40 50 50 50 50 50 50 70 70
Temp............86 85 84 84 83 83 82 82 82 81 80 80
RH..............75 77 80 80 80 82 85 85 85 88 91 91
20 FT wind dir..W W WNW N NE N NE ENE ENE NE ENE ENE
20 FT wind spd..6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.1
Mix hgt (km)....0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.W WNW W NW N NNW N ENE E ENE E E
Transp wind spd.7 7 7 5 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 6
Trans spd (m/s).3 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 3
Dispersion idx..19 5 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4
LVORI...........3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
northwest early in the afternoon, then shifting
to the west early in the afternoon shifting to
the south late in the afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...335-579 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the north late in
the morning, then shifting to the south in the
afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.East around 3 meters/second shifting to the
north late in the morning, then shifting to the
south in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....8 increasing to 15 in the late morning and
afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....2.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........75 74 78 59 58 74 61 53 53 52 50 64
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........LKY CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).70 70 70 70 70 70 70 50 50 50 70 70
Temp............80 80 81 82 83 84 84 85 85 85 86 87
RH..............91 91 88 85 82 80 80 75 75 75 72 70
20 FT wind dir..ENE NE ENE NE NNE N NNW WNW WSW S S S
20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9
Mix hgt (km)....0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.ENE ENE E E ENE NNW NNE SE S S S S
Transp wind spd.6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Trans spd (m/s).3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Dispersion idx..4 10 10 12 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 14
LVORI...........6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers likely
in the evening. Thunderstorms likely through
the night. Showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 79.
Max humidity........88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph shifting to the
southeast early in the evening, then shifting
to the south early in the morning. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the evening and overnight. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms after 3 am.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...396-640 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 6 mph shifting to the
northeast 6 to 8 mph early in the evening, then
shifting to the east around 7 mph overnight
shifting to the south around 8 mph after 3 am.
Transport winds m/s.South around 3 meters/second shifting to the
southwest early in the evening, then shifting
to the northeast 3 to 4 meters/second early in
the evening shifting to the east around 3
meters/second overnight shifting to the south
around 4 meters/second.
Dispersion index....15 decreasing to 5.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....4.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........56 48 72 71 69 69 68 68 69 69 70 74
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).70 70 70 70 70 70 70 90 90 90 90 90
Temp............86 85 83 82 82 82 81 81 81 81 81 81
RH..............75 77 82 85 82 82 88 88 88 88 88 88
20 FT wind dir..S S ESE E E E E ESE ESE SSE SSE S
20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.0
Mix hgt (km)....0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.S SW N NNE NE NE ENE ENE E SSE S SSW
Transp wind spd.6 6 8 8 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8
Trans spd (m/s).3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4
Dispersion idx..15 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6
LVORI...........4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
$$
Forecaster...7
Requested by...Sami Gray
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2518997.5/MOB
.DELDT 08/03/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL sami_gray@fws.gov,david_stoesz@fws.gov,melanie_dolan@fws.gov