234
FXUS64 KMOB 110824
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
324 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

An upper level ridge over the eastern Conus builds a bit as an
organizing shortwave system moves over the Plains to over the
Mississippi River Valley. Surface high pressure passes south of the
forecast area later today through tonight in response to the
approaching upper low. Onshore flow returns Wednesday, with moisture
levels rising from <0.50" today to 1.1"-1.3" by Thursday morning.
With the forecast area and nearby beginning to come under the
influence of the upper low`s dynamics Wednesday night, rain returns
to areas northwest of I-65 late Wednesday night. Enough instability
is present, along with some weak upper divergence, for some
thunderstorms to mix in with the rain showers. Am not expecting any
of the rumblers to become strong at this time.

Temperatures remain above seasonal norms through the Near Term. High
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are expected today and
Wednesday. The increasing moisture levels along with upper
subsidence will allow low temperatures to rise, from mid 40s to
around 50 tonight to general 50s (higher towards southwestern
portions of the forecast area) Wednesday night.

A rip risk of Rip Currents is expected through Wednesday night.
/16

&&

SHORT & LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tues Mar 11 2025

Two rounds of active weather to discuss in the long term.

The first round will be on Thursday. A shortwave trough continues to
slide eastward out of the Southern Plains as we roll into Thursday.
A wave of low pressure associated with this shortwave will likely
begin to wash out as it slides toward the Southeast as it battles up
against a surface high draped across the western Atlantic. Moisture
return is rather meager ahead of this system and PWATs don`t begin
to climb until Thursday morning (PWATs top out around 1.0-1.2
inches). There will likely be enough instability and shear to
squeeze out a few strong to severe storms in the afternoon hours.
Looking at some of the forecast soundings and hodographs, there will
likely be enough support for a low end risk for hail and gusty winds
in the afternoon hours (mainly for the eastern portion of the area).
This should be a rather quick hitting system as the area dries out
Thursday night through Friday in between systems.

The second round will be this weekend, although many of the details
will not be ironed out for a few more days. A potent shortwave
rounds the base of a trough as it swings across the middle part of
the country on Friday and pivots toward the Great Lakes region by
Saturday. As the shortwave ejects north, the base of the trough
amplifies and eventually swings toward the region Saturday night
into Sunday. An anomalously deep surface low develops over the
Central Plains on Friday in response to the strengthening shortwave
and pivots toward the Upper Midwest over the weekend (becoming a
stacked low). Meanwhile, there are indications that a wave of low
pressure may attempt to develop somewhere to our west along the
north central Gulf Coast either late Friday night or early Saturday
morning. A warm front associated with this subtle wave may try to
lift out of the Gulf and north across our area during this
timeframe. Deep onshore flow develops ahead of this system with
PWATs quickly recovering by Saturday morning and surging to 1.5+
inches by the afternoon. Breezy conditions are expected by Friday
afternoon with isolated showers possible as early as Friday night
(given the strengthening moisture advection ahead of the main
system). A number of factors continue to point toward the potential
for severe storms (both discrete storms and a line of storms) as we
head through the day on Saturday (potentially lingering into the
early part of Sunday). That said, it is still too far out in time to
nail down the specifics, extent, severity, and timing of the weekend
event...especially considering the differences in the guidance at
this point. Once we get closer in time, we will have a better handle
on how the mesoscale details evolve for the event. Continue to check
back over the next few days as we iron out all the details for the
upcoming weekend. Storms should gradually push east of the area
through the morning on Sunday (along with the passage of a cold
front) with a dry forecast for Monday and Tuesday.

Beach Forecast - The rip current risk remains MODERATE on Thursday
and Friday with a jump to a HIGH RISK expected Friday night through
at least Saturday. Surf quickly increases as we head into the
weekend with the potential for 5-7 foot breakers possible at the
beaches on Saturday. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Light offshore flow shifts to onshore Wednesday, then increases
to moderate Wednesday night into Thursday as an upper system
passes. Winds will ease for Friday, then become moderate to strong
into the coming weekend as a stronger upper system passes. A
Small Craft Advisory Friday night into the weekend.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  48  74  58  79  59  78  65 /   0   0   0  10  30   0  10  30
Pensacola   73  53  71  61  74  63  75  66 /   0   0   0  10  50   0   0  20
Destin      71  56  71  61  72  64  74  66 /   0   0   0  10  50  10   0  20
Evergreen   76  43  78  53  78  57  82  64 /   0   0   0  10  70  10   0  30
Waynesboro  77  44  77  55  81  56  83  63 /   0   0   0  20  30   0  10  40
Camden      75  45  76  54  77  57  81  63 /   0   0   0  20  70  10   0  30
Crestview   76  43  76  53  75  57  79  63 /   0   0   0  10  70  10   0  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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