755
FXUS64 KMOB 282026
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
326 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

A general, light northerly flow pattern aloft will continue through
at least Tuesday as our local region remains on the eastern
periphery of an upper-level ridge over the south central US. To our
east, an upper-level low remains in place over Georgia. This smaller
upper low will become absorbed by a larger tropical upper low (or
TUTT) that will slowly retrograde towards the southeast US Atlantic
coastline late on Sunday and linger through Tuesday. Subtle
shortwave impulses look to move around this feature and pass
overhead throughout that timeframe. Forcing from these impulses, as
well as plenty of moisture and instability, will give way to
scattered to numerous showers and storms each day. As has been the
case for the past several days, activity will generally follow a
typical summertime, diurnal pattern, with offshore/coastal showers
and storms developing during the morning, scattered to numerous
storms developing across southern portions of the area during the
early afternoon hours, storms spreading inland via outflow/sea
breeze boundary collisions during the late afternoon, and activity
dissipating during the mid to late evening due to the loss of
daytime heating. Storms will be pulse-type in nature due to a lack
of shear, and therefore am not expecting any organized severe
weather throughout the period. However, as we typically see with
this type of pattern, cannot rule out a few stronger storms capable
of producing gusty downburst winds. It should also be noted that
storms will likely be slow-moving and efficient rainfall producers.
With several days of higher-end rainfall chances expected, cannot
rule out some localized flash flooding concerns, especially in urban
and low-lying areas. Global ensemble guidance suggests that the
highest rainfall amounts will be seen closer to the coast,
especially over the western Florida Panhandle where there is a
medium chance (generally around 40-60%) of QPF exceeding 2 inches
over the next 5 days, which is fairly impressive for lower-
resolution global guidance.

The pattern begins to transition by Wednesday and into the latter
part of the week as a longwave trough slides across the Great Lakes
region, helping to break down and absorb the TUTT off the Southeast
US coast. In its wake, the upper ridge to our west will begin to
build across the Lower Mississippi River Valley and potentially into
the Tennessee River Valley. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary
will attempt to push into the local area on Wednesday, bringing
likely one more day of rather unsettled weather to the area. The
forecast becomes rather murky thereafter as it is rather uncertain
how far south the boundary will make it before stalling. If the
front stalls across the local area, then it will help to serve as a
focus for additional rounds of storms to develop over the following
days. If, however, the front is able to push offshore, then a drier
airmass will filter in, giving way to lower rain chances for the end
of the week. It should be noted that over the past 24 hours, global
ensemble guidance has trended toward the drier solution, and
therefore our forecast PoPs for Thursday through Saturday have
been reduced to around 30-40%. We will monitor these trends over
the coming days and adjust PoPs accordingly.

Due to the higher rain chances, highs through Tuesday will generally
range from the mid 80s to the low 90s. Highs will gradually warm to
the low to mid 90s, potentially as high as the upper 90s in some
spots by the end of the week, especially if the drier solution pans
out. At this point, heat indices are expected to remain below Heat
Advisory criteria thanks to afternoon dew points mixing down into
the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows throughout the period will be in the
low 70s inland and the mid to upper 70s along the immediate coast. A
Low Risk of rip currents tonight increases to a Moderate Risk
late tomorrow. The Moderate Risk continues through midweek. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
throughout the afternoon, with coverage decreasing during the
evening hours. Expect brief reductions in visibility and ceilings
in some of the heavier activity, and a few stronger storms could
produce gusty, erratic winds. Outside of storms, southerly winds
at around 5 to 10 knots will become light and variable tonight.
/96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

A light to occasionally moderate southwesterly to westerly flow
pattern develops this weekend and continues through the middle
part of next week. No impacts expected other than locally higher
winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  89  72  89  72  86  72  90 /  30  70  40  80  40  80  40  60
Pensacola   76  89  75  86  74  85  75  90 /  30  70  50  70  60  80  50  60
Destin      78  90  77  88  77  88  77  90 /  40  70  60  70  60  80  60  70
Evergreen   70  91  70  88  70  87  71  91 /  20  70  20  70  20  80  30  60
Waynesboro  70  91  71  89  71  89  70  91 /  20  70  20  70  20  80  30  40
Camden      70  89  70  86  70  87  70  89 /  20  70  20  70  20  80  30  50
Crestview   70  91  70  88  70  87  71  91 /  30  80  40  90  50  90  40  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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