792
FXUS64 KMOB 131838
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
138 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

A weak upper trof which extends from eastern Texas into the
interior eastern states weakens through Thursday then an upper
ridge builds over the region on Friday and comes to dominate much
of the central and eastern CONUS this weekend. Despite the
development of the upper ridge, an upper level weakness appears
to linger over the extreme southeast states and gradually becomes
oriented over the forecast area by Tuesday as the upper ridge
slowly progresses into the western CONUS. A subtle surface low
appears to currently be over interior south central Alabama per
local observations and radar loop and is expected to lift slowly
off to the northeast overnight, with a weak surface trof lingering
over the far interior portion of the forecast area on Thursday
and into Friday. This will support chance to likely pops on
Thursday, then chance to good chance pops follow for Friday. A
surface ridge which was meanwhile oriented east-west across the
Gulf evolves into a surface high centered over the northwestern
Gulf by Saturday, and the surface circulation associated with this
feature will aid in modestly enhancing convergence along the sea
breeze over the forecast area. Have gone with chance to good
chance pops for Saturday as a result, and similar pops follow for
Sunday as well. The sea breeze looks to be the main initiating
mechanism for convection for Monday and Tuesday and have gone with
slight chance to chance pops for both days, but it`s possible that
the upper level weakness becoming oriented over the area could
eventually lead to somewhat higher pops. Heat index values look to
climb to around 106 for Friday through Sunday, but are
anticipated to generally remain below Heat Advisory criteria of
108 at this point. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility prevail across the area this
morning as lingering showers gradually dissipate. By early this
afternoon, VFR flight category should return to most of the area
with scattered showers and storms redeveloping by mid to late
afternoon. Underneath any showers or storms, flight category will be
temporarily reduced. Generally anticipating MVFR to locally IFR
ceilings and/or visibility to settle back in during the overnight
hours, gradually improving as we head into the day Thursday back
to VFR. Winds will generally prevail out of the southwest to west
around 5 knots. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

A light to moderate southwesterly to westerly flow is expected
through Friday. For Saturday into Monday, a diurnal flow pattern is
anticipated, with an offshore flow developing at night and becoming
onshore in the afternoon hours. No impacts are anticipated other
than higher winds and seas near storms. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  92  75  93  75  94  75  93 /  30  40  10  40  10  50  10  40
Pensacola   78  91  78  92  78  93  78  92 /  20  30  10  40  10  40  20  40
Destin      79  90  79  91  79  92  78  90 /  30  40  10  40  10  40  20  50
Evergreen   73  93  73  94  73  95  73  94 /  20  50  20  40  10  40  10  30
Waynesboro  73  92  73  94  72  93  72  94 /  30  60  20  50  10  40  10  30
Camden      74  92  74  92  73  93  73  92 /  20  50  20  40  10  30  10  30
Crestview   74  92  74  93  74  93  74  92 /  20  50  10  50  10  50  10  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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