408
FXUS64 KMOB 222304
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
604 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Now Through Friday Night...

Northwest zonal upper flow is expected into Saturday, with a
shortwave moving over the region Friday into Friday night. A surface
ridge organizes over the Gulf, restoring onshore flow, albeit weak,
over the northern Gulf coast. Moisture influx inland is best over
the Lower Mississippi River and west. Enough moisture works its way
inland over the Southeast, though, for precipitable h20 values over
the forecast area to rise a bit (from 0.80" to around 1.1"), but the
Near Term remains dry.

Temperatures continue the above seasonal norms trend, with upper 80s
to low 90s expected this afternoon and again Friday. The uptick in
moisture levels will bring an increase in Heat Indices, to the 90-95
degree range for Friday. The increase in moisture levels will
decrease radiational cooling overnight, with low temperatures in the
low to mid 60s inland tonight, mid to upper 60s Friday night. Along
the coast, upper 60s to around 70 are expected tonight, around 70 to
low 70s Friday night.

A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected into Saturday. /16

Saturday Through Wednesday...

The pattern turns more unsettled as we roll into the weekend
and definitely by the early part of next week.

Northwesterly to west-northwesterly flow aloft will generally
persist through the weekend as a trough pivots off the East Coast
and ridging builds to our west. This pattern will allow for a parade
of subtle shortwaves to slide across the region over the weekend.
These subtle features will spark scattered showers and storms, but
there still remains some uncertainty with the timing and amplitude
of these shortwaves. The best chance for rain will be generally
northwest of the I-65 corridor in the afternoon hours throughout the
weekend. That said, there continues to be a signal for a cluster of
storms (potentially an MCS) to dive into Deep South from the
northwest in the afternoon on Saturday, making it into our area by
Saturday evening. Most of the guidance washes this feature out
quickly, but it`s something we`ll need to keep our eye on in the
upcoming model runs. Gusty winds would be the main concern *if* this
features makes it into our area.

Rain chances increase in the early part of next week as a trough
quickly pivots across the central portion of the CONUS and flow
aloft turns southwesterly. Deep onshore flow is expected on Monday
and Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Several rounds of showers and
storms will be expected next week with Tuesday having the highest
rain chances (for now, but note that this may change again) as the
front stalls over the area.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains LOW through Memorial Day.
Our rip current MOS probabilities indicate that the risk will begin
to increase Monday night into Tuesday. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. South winds around
10 knots will become light this evening, then rise to around 10
knots Friday afternoon, especially closer to the coast, as a
seabreeze moves inland.
/16
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Light southerly flow will persist through the weekend. /16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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