343
FXUS64 KMOB 222315
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
515 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions continue through Saturday afternoon. A light
northwesterly flow prevails through the period. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday Night)
Issued at 357 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Surface high pressure moves east over the Southeast, with a light
northerly flow becoming easterly by Sunday morning. With a cold
airmass in place over the region, combined with efficient
radiational cooling, unseasonably cold temperatures are expected the
next two nights. For tonight, temperatures below freezing are
expected north of Highway 84, with temperatures between 33F to 39F
south and around 40 along the coast. A Freeze Warning is in effect
for areas north of Highway 84 tonight, with a Frost Advisory south
to along I-10. A slight uptick in moisture levels for Saturday night
will help to temper overnight cooling, with low temperature ranging
from 33 north of Highway 84 to near 40 south of I-10 and upper 40s
along the coast. Frost is again possible as far south as a New
Augusta to Crestview line. Clear skies Saturday will allow
temperature to rise to a more seasonable low 60s north of Highway 84
to mid 60s.

A light offshore flow is expected along the coast, creating a low
risk of rip current on area beaches into Sunday.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 357 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Zonal flow aloft is expected to continue through much of the
period for the local area. To our north, an upper-level shortwave
trough will pass across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. This
will help to send a weakening cold front into the southeast US.
With how quickly the shortwave will progress to the east, this
associated front will begin losing speed and will eventually stall
over or near our local area. The latest suite of models have come
into better agreement, suggesting that the front will move across
the area and stall offshore Tuesday night, bringing us a brief
shot of cooler, drier air as high pressure pushes across the Ohio
River Valley. This will be very short-lived, however, as the high
will quickly move off to the east, allowing for the front to lift
back to the north on Wednesday as a warm front. By Thursday,
shortwave energy will pass overhead as a longwave trough begins to
amplify and dig into the eastern US. As it evolves, another much
stronger cold front will quickly push southeastward, sweeping
through the local area Thursday evening/night.

Dry conditions are expected to continue through Monday as high
pressure maintains its hold across the area. Temperatures and dew
points will be on the increase, however, thanks to southwesterly
surface winds in place. Highs will increase from the low 70s on
Sunday to the upper 70s by Monday. Similarly, lows will increase
from the low 50s north to upper 50s south Sunday night to the upper
50s north to mid 60s south by Monday night. Rain chances return to
the forecast by Monday night into Tuesday morning as the first cold
front moves across the local area. With upper-level support quickly
moving away from the front, the band of showers associated with the
front will be trending downward in coverage as the front passes
through. Therefore, the highest PoPs (30-40 percent) will be seen
over our northwestern zones, lowering to a 20 percent rain chance
for our southeastern zones. We should likely dry out by Tuesday
afternoon. Temperatures will briefly dip after the front passes. Due
to the timing of the front, highs will range from the mid 60s
northwest to the mid 70s southeast. Lows Tuesday night will drop
into the mid to upper 40s over inland counties, and the low to mid
50s for coastal counties. The next chance of showers, and a few
thunderstorms, comes on Thursday (Thanksgiving), as shortwave energy
passes overhead (leading to weak diffluence aloft), a modest 850mb
jet develops over northern to central MS/AL/GA, and the stronger
cold front approaches from the northwest. At this time, instability
looks rather low and the best forcing looks to be displaced to the
north and east, but we will just keep an eye on trends over the
coming days. After warming into the low to mid 70s on Wednesday and
Thursday, highs will plummet into the upper 50s to low 60s by Friday
in the wake of the cold front. /96

MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Light to at times moderate offshore flow will transition to a
light onshore through the weekend. No impacts are expected.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      36  66  42  73  58  78  62  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  20  20
Pensacola   41  65  48  71  60  76  65  76 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  20
Destin      45  66  51  71  61  77  66  76 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  20
Evergreen   32  64  34  72  50  78  58  73 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  20  20
Waynesboro  32  64  36  73  52  78  57  67 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  40  10
Camden      30  61  34  71  51  78  58  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  40  10
Crestview   33  67  35  72  49  77  58  77 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
     ALZ051>058-060.

     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
     ALZ059-261-262.

FL...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
     FLZ201-203-205.

MS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
     MSZ067.

     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
     MSZ075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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