007
FXUS64 KMOB 032309
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
609 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

 - Temperatures will steadily warm through midweek.

 - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible by the middle
   of this week, particularly for northwestern counties.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Forecast remains on track this evening; no additional updates
needed. /96

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Quick little update for the remainder of today, but it appears
that a much drier airmass has moved into the area behind this
front and dewpoints have cratered into the 30s mainly east of
Mississippi. As a result, we have lowered dewpoints and increased
temperatures for this afternoon with highs likely getting into
the upper 70s across most of the area. This will result in
relative humidity values to drop to around 25% and those in the
fire weather world should use some caution while burning today
with drier air and gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Well after tying our all time May record low last night here in
Mobile with a low of 43, we have begun to warmup nicely and a
rather pleasant 72 hours is on tap for us. High pressure has
built in nicely over the central US providing rather dry air to
move into the area. This drier airmass should remain in place
through Monday as the upper ridge slowly shifts eastward and
flattens out across the central Gulf. By Tuesday, gradual return
flow should begin as our next system approaches from the west.
Southwesterly flow will develop aloft through Wednesday as a large
upper level low moves into the four corners region on Tuesday.

Our next system finally arrives on Wednesday into Wednesday night
as the upper low ejects over the mid-Mississippi valley. While
there is a very weak signal for the potential for strong to severe
storms the evolution of this jet streak and orientation of the
upper trough really does not favor a more widespread severe risk
for our area. The main diffluence from the subtropical jet will
likely eject across northern Mississippi into the mid-south
Wednesday afternoon with more shortwave ridging across the area
keeping us capped during the afternoon despite a rather impressive
kinematic environment. Some storms may be able to sneak there way
down by the early evening across our far northwest and will be
dependent on how strong the upper ridge is. IF a storm can sneak
into our northwestern areas of southeastern Mississippi then a
conditional severe risk may occur. By late Wednesday night, the
right entrance region of the upper jet will slowly spread over the
area as a cold front drops down from the northwest. Scattered to
numerous storms will accompany the cold front but given the
gradual to modest height falls occurring along or potentially
right behind the front storms will be confined mainly along and
behind the boundary likely limiting the severe threat. Couple this
with poor instability during the overnight hours you can pain the
picture of a rather low end severe threat. However, deep layer
shear will be strong and any storms that could achieve some
strength and remain surface based will be capable of sporadic
damaging winds. Current long range machine learning guidance and
analog guidance supports the risk likely remaining to our
northwest with only a low end severe potential across our far
northwestern areas which lines up fairly well with what we are
advertising above. We will still have to monitor the trends over
the next couple of days to see how the overall severe threat will
develop but as of now it is looking on the lower end. Drier
conditions will once again return by the end of the week as the
cold front pushes offshore. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Light and
variable winds tonight will turn southerly on Monday and increase
to around 5-10 knots. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Surface high pressure will build over the area by early this week
with a return to light winds and seas. Light onshore flow will
return Monday afternoon with winds and seas again increasing ahead
of the next storm system by the middle of next week. Another
round of strong to severe thunderstorms could be possible
Wednesday night as our next cold front moves through the offshore
marine waters. BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      51  80  56  81 /   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   56  79  60  79 /   0   0   0  10
Destin      60  78  63  79 /   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   46  83  49  84 /   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  49  81  52  83 /   0   0   0  10
Camden      48  81  51  82 /   0   0   0  10
Crestview   46  83  50  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$