862
FXUS64 KMOB 151731
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1131 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

 - Isolated strong thunderstorms are expected interior areas this
   afternoon with small hail possible.

 - Strong marine winds will occur through tonight with the
   potential for occasional gusts to gale force resulting in
   hazardous boating conditions.

 - High surf heights up to 4 to 6 feet will impact coastal
   portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through this
   evening, with strong rip currents continuing through Monday
   afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

A well organized squall line is quickly moving east across
Louisiana and southwest Mississippi as of midnight. This line is
moving faster than any of the guidance indicated. Therefore, we
now expect it to enter our southeast Mississippi counties by 2am,
approach the I-65 corridor by 4am, and exit eastern parts of the
area by no later than 8am. This line has had a history of
producing damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes. As it
continues east, shear will remain strong as a 50-60 kt low level
jet moves across the area, helping to yield 0-1km bulk shear of
35-45 kt and 0-1km SRH of 250-300 m2/s2. Instability will be the
main question mark due to the fast nature of the return flow ahead
of the squall line. Latest hi-res guidance indicates MLCAPES
should rise to 500-750 J/kg, with the highest values located
closer to the coast. In addition, 0-3km CAPE is forecast to be
100-150 J/kg along the coastal zones, which is favorable for
severe weather. These high shear/low CAPE events are always tricky
though as there are always question marks on if the shear will be
too strong given the overall modest instability. However, given
the forcing of the potent upper trough combined with the presence
of at least some low level instability, there should continue to
be a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps an
embedded tornado along the squall line. A Tornado Watch is in
effect for all but the south central Alabama counties through 5am.
We may have to locally extend this an hour or two, but will make
that decision later as we see how the line progresses through our
area.

We will see a lull in storm coverage in the wake of the early
morning line. However, additional scattered showers and storms are
likely to develop midday into this afternoon, especially over
inland zones, as the upper level shortwave and attendant surface
low move across central Alabama. Cannot rule out some small hail
with these storms given the colder temps aloft associated with the
upper trough.

Winds will quickly increase ahead of the line of storms early this
morning, gusting to 30-35 mph at times. These strong gusts will
likely persist through much of the day in the wake of the early
morning storms given the strong surface low moving across Alabama
this afternoon.

After we get past this storm system, the rest of the week looks
fairly tranquil as upper level ridging builds across the region.
This will result in above normal temps through the week with
little to no chance of rain. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

A low pressure system tracks across central AL this afternoon and
moves across the southeast US tonight. On the southern periphery of
the low, a westerly component in the winds will see gusts upwards to
around 25 kts through the afternoon and there are indications breezy
conditions will linger a few hours after sunset before decreasing.
Satellite indicates clouds more scattered across the terminals
initially into mid-afternoon before becoming broken to overcast. CIG
bases expected down into the lower end of MVFR categories tonight.
There`s a small chance of -shra by and after 15.21Z ending after
16.00Z. /10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Onshore flow will strengthen early this morning ahead of an
approaching cold front. Winds will remain strong out of the
southwest through most of the day in the wake of the front.
Occasional gusts to gale force are possible. Strong to severe wind
gusts are possible in thunderstorms early this morning. A
moderate to strong offshore flow becomes established by tonight,
gradually waning to a light to moderate offshore flow by Monday
afternoon. Light onshore flow returns for Tuesday through midweek.
34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  53  71  52 /  30  10   0   0
Pensacola   71  55  69  54 /  60  10   0   0
Destin      70  54  69  54 /  70  20   0   0
Evergreen   73  49  72  46 /  60  10   0   0
Waynesboro  69  50  70  48 /  70  10   0   0
Camden      69  50  68  48 /  90  10   0   0
Crestview   74  51  72  47 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until midnight CST tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$