347
FXUS64 KMOB 052045
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
345 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Now Through Friday...

Morning observational data indicated that deep moisture remained
over much of the forecast area, and especially across locations
along and east of the I-65 corridor. Daytime heating and
increasing low level destabilization has allowed for numerous
showers to develop across southwest and south-central Alabama and
across the western Florida Panhandle.

There will be a concentration of showers and maybe an isolated
thunderstorm along a weak sea breeze circulation which remains
just inland from the coast. Mostly cloudy conditions across much
of the area should prevent temperatures from rising much above the
lower to middle 80s, except across interior portions of southeast
Mississippi this afternoon where convective coverage is lower.
This will keep the sea breeze weaker and closer to the coast, but
will result in increased low level convergence and an area to
focus and concentrate convective development. Weak mid level
lapse rates associated with building mid level heights advecting
in from the southwest should keep lightning potential isolated
today. The moist airmass could support locally heavy rainfall this
afternoon with the heaviest showers and in areas where showers
repeatedly traverse the same locations. This could lead to some
ponding of water in poor drainage and urban areas. Flash flooding
is not anticipated at this time. Convective coverage should
gradually diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating
and weakening of low level instability.

The focus for showers should then shift offshore by late evening
and through the overnight as the typical diurnal summertime Gulf
Coast pattern will result in a developing land breeze circulation
south of the coast. By late tonight, any showers produced along
the land breeze will lift towards the beaches around sunrise and
then back inland across the coastal counties of Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle through Friday morning.

Upper level ridging will become the dominant large scale weather
feature along the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. This will result
in lower chances for showers and thunderstorms through the day.
The main focus for convection will again be along the inland
advancing sea breeze, which should be a bit stronger tomorrow as
more inland heating is anticipated. Therefore have basically gone
with near climatological precipitation chances across the forecast
area tomorrow. POPs could be a bit above climatology east of I-65,
where deep layer moisture will remain most abundant and subsidence
associated with the building upper ridge remains weakest. In these
areas, the higher moisture and precipitation chances could lead to
additional areas of locally heavy rainfall and more nuisance type
flood potential.

Dangerous rip currents will continue today through Friday as long
period swell continues to push on to the coast and keep conditions
favorable for numerous strong rip currents. Therefore the high
risk of rip currents will continue. The rip current threat should
gradually come down later tomorrow and into the weekend. /JLH

Saturday Through Wednesday...

The pattern turns unsettled again as we roll into next week.

The area remains on the eastern periphery of a ridge aloft over the
weekend. Numerous shortwaves ride between the ridge and trough
building out of the Plains this weekend, but these features
generally remain north of our area. Late in the weekend and into
next week, the ridge gets shunted deeper into the Gulf (and
eventually retreats westward toward Texas and Mexico) as the
expansive trough spills across the eastern half of the CONUS. A
parade of shortwaves proceed to dive across the Southeast and Deep
South throughout the early and middle part of next week in this
pattern. The only persistent feature during this entire timeframe is
the presence of the western Atlantic surface high which stretches
into the eastern part of the Gulf. Southwesterly to westerly flow at
the surface will usher in plenty of moisture to the area next week.

A diurnal convective pattern is expected over the weekend with
scattered showers and storms in the late afternoon and early evening
hours. Rain chances markedly increase in the early to middle part of
next week with numerous showers and storms each day. Given the
nonstop nature of the shortwaves flowing into the region next week,
rain chances will not only be high during the day, but will remain
high even into the overnight hours. High POPs and increased cloud
cover will mean slightly cooler daytime high temperatures (emphasis
on the word slightly) next week. At this point, we are not overly
concerned with a threat for severe storms next week. That being
said, we continue to monitor the trends for the potential for a few
strong to marginally severe storms in the late afternoon and early
evening hours on Saturday.

Beach Forecast - The rip current risk remains MODERATE over the
weekend and falls to a LOW by Monday. The latest rip current
probabilities show the risk will remain borderline LOW/MODERATE on
both Monday and Tuesday, so we will continue to monitor the trends
closely to refine the risk in the coming days. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR ceilings and visibilities should remain the prevailing
condition at all sites through the period. There will be scattered
to numerous showers this afternoon which may temporarily reduce
visibilities and ceilings to MVFR for short periods of time in
heavy rainfall. The coverage of showers should diminish this
evening and through much of the overnight period. Light southwest
winds can be expected today, with sites near the immediate coast
potentially shifting to offshore with a developing land breeze
tonight. There may be some patchy fog development as well in some
locations but the potential remains too low to add to any terminal
at this time.

Early morning showers should again develop along the coast as
overnight land breeze convection moves slowly northeastward in the
mean flow.

Light southwest winds should redevelop tomorrow with a sea breeze
along with scattered showers. Overall coverage should remain lower
on Friday with VFR conditions likely the prevailing condition.
/JLH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

A mainly diurnal wind pattern should prevail into the weekend with
light offshore flow overnight and light to moderate onshore flow
anticipated each day. There will be an uptick in showers and
storms later in the weekend and during the overnight period each
day. Overall, low impact weather is anticipated outside of any
storms where winds and seas will be locally higher. /JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  90  75  92  75  92  73  90 /  10  40  10  30  10  60  60  80
Pensacola   76  88  78  90  79  90  77  88 /  20  40  10  40  20  50  70  70
Destin      78  89  79  90  79  89  78  88 /  30  40  20  50  20  50  70  70
Evergreen   71  92  72  94  73  91  71  89 /  30  60  30  50  30  70  60  80
Waynesboro  72  92  72  94  73  91  70  89 /  20  30  10  30  20  70  50  70
Camden      71  90  72  91  73  88  70  86 /  10  50  20  40  30  80  50  70
Crestview   71  92  72  94  73  92  72  90 /  20  60  30  60  20  70  60  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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