625
FXUS64 KMOB 301625
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1125 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1037 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- Hot conditions continue today with heat index values of 108-112 possible.

- Thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon through the
  weekend. A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging
  wind gusts, torrential rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground
  lightning.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected to return this weekend
  for all area beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1037 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The heat finally begins to relax as we enter a much more active
pattern for showers and thunderstorms late week into the weekend.
Upper troughing begins to nudge its way into the area as upper
ridging retreats westward, allowing for northerly flow aloft to
prevail through Friday night and more westerly flow around the
base of the trough this weekend. This will allow for several
weak shortwaves to track across the region over the next few
days, providing for daily scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. A surface cold front attempts to work its way
southward towards the area, but will likely hang up just north of
the forecast area. Today is the last day of heat advisories as
heat indices rise into the 108 to 112 range this afternoon, with
heat indices below criteria in the 100 to 105 range Friday
areawide. With that said, high temperatures top out in the middle
to upper 90`s today and upper 80`s to lower 90`s Friday and into
the weekend. Overnight lows stay hot in the middle to upper 70`s.

With the increase in coverage of showers and storms, there will
also be a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms any given
afternoon through this weekend. Some mid-level dry air begins
working its way into the area which should allow for more robust
downdrafts with any storms. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts
associated with these microbursts will be possible in any storm,
particularly as we get into the weekend. Shear is fairly weak, but
can`t rule out some loosely organized multi-cell clusters or
bowing segments. In addition to this, locally heavy rainfall is
likely with storms. If storms train over the same areas or decide
to sit over any given location for a prolonged period of time,
localized flash flooding could be possible.

As we head into next week the upper trough lifts out and we
gradually get upper ridging to work its way back into the area.
Afternoon highs warm into the lower to middle 90`s again and rain
chances diminish to more isolated to scattered coverage each day
next week.

A Moderate risk of rip currents continues today through Friday,
becoming a High risk of rip currents for all area beaches as we
get into the weekend. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR flight category is expected to prevail across the area through
tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon and evening across the region, temporarily
reducing flight category and potentially producing variable and
strong wind gusts. Winds remain generally out of the west around 5
to 10 knots today, relaxing to light and variable at night. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1037 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Light to moderate westerly winds becomes a moderate to occasionally
strong westerly to southwesterly flow for Saturday night through
Sunday before diminishing on Monday. Small Craft should exercise
caution this weekend, and forecast trends will be monitored for
the potential need of Small Craft Advisories at some point this
weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and storms become possible
through late week, with best chances this weekend. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  92  75  91 /  50  80  50  60
Pensacola   79  91  77  90 /  50  80  70  70
Destin      80  90  78  89 /  40  80  70  80
Evergreen   73  92  72  88 /  40  70  50  80
Waynesboro  74  93  74  91 /  40  80  40  60
Camden      74  91  73  87 /  40  60  50  80
Crestview   75  93  74  90 /  50  80  60  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>053-059-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$