729
FXUS64 KMOB 050943
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
343 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday night)
Issued at 343 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

A closed upper low over the Lower Rio Grande Valley meanders east
over the western Gulf of Mexico, increasing the inland flow of Gulf
moisture on the west side of a surface ridge stretching west over
the north-central and northeastern Gulf coast. Best northerly
moisture influx is over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, before
moving northeast over central Mississippi and Alabama today.
Precipitable h20 levels reach around 1.5" in this band. Moisture
levels remain lower along the coast (around 1.0"). Looking at model
soundings over the more moisture rich areas, enough instability is
available below an inversion centered around 5k` for surface based
rain showers. The CAMs are painting a small chance of rain well
north of Highway 84 today, and more area-wide Thursday as the
moisture band sags south over more of the forecast area. Am not
expecting enough nor deep enough instability, nor upper support for
strong storms. Focusing on the night time, with enough moisture in
the boundary layer along with light overnight winds, fog formation
is likely. The wild card in density will be any mid/upper level
clouds limiting overnight radiational cooling. Also, with water
temperatures over Mobile Bay and along the Mississippi and Alabama
Gulf coasts, along with a bit more organized southerly flow as the
upper system meanders closer to the forecast area, sea fog becomes
an increasing possiblity.

Subsidence from upper high pressure over the Southeast will keep
temperatures well above seasonal norms. high temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s today and Thursday, with low temperatures in the upper
50s to low 60s expected tonight and Thursday night.

With light onshore flow over the northern Gulf, the Rip Risk is
expected to remain low through the week.
/16

&&

.EXTENDED TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Nearly zonal flow aloft is expected over our area Friday through
early Sunday, as a cutoff upper low over the western Gulf gradually
weakens and lifts toward the Florida panhandle as an open shortwave
trough by late Sunday. Upper flow then becomes more southwesterly
over the area Monday and Tuesday as a longwave trough develops over
the western portion of the CONUS. Surface high pressure will
continue to ridge into the area from the east Friday through early
Sunday, but will weaken somewhat into the early part of next week as
a cold front sags south into the southeast CONUS and becomes
stationary (probably just to the northwest and north of our area).
There could be some very isolated, mainly afternoon showers Friday
through Monday (with slightly better chances by Monday) but in
general a mostly dry forecast is expected for most of the extended
period. By Tuesday the deepening upper trough over the western
portions of the country may allow for the stalled surface front to
gradually begin to work its way a little more to the south and east
toward/into our area, so PoPs look to go up somewhat on Tuesday (at
least to the 50 percent range). Could be looking at a heavy rain
setup by the middle part of next week, depending on how long the
front continues to linger across our area, but we have plenty of
time to monitor for that. Patchy dense fog will likely continue to
be an issue at times through most of the extended term as well,
especially during the overnight and early morning hours. DS/12

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Light, mainly onshore winds expected through the remainder of
the week. No impacts other than areas of dense fog potential over
all the bays, sounds, and nearshore waters each night this week
which will restrict visibilities. 16/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      77  60  75  60  76  60  76  61 /   0  10  20  10  10   0   0   0
Pensacola   73  62  73  63  74  64  74  64 /   0  10  10  10  10   0  10   0
Destin      72  62  73  63  74  65  74  65 /  10  10  10  10  20   0  10   0
Evergreen   79  57  79  59  80  60  81  62 /  10  10  20  10  10  10   0   0
Waynesboro  79  59  79  60  81  61  81  61 /  10  10  30   0  10   0   0   0
Camden      77  58  76  60  80  60  80  62 /  20  10  50  10  20   0  10   0
Crestview   78  58  79  58  80  59  80  60 /  10  10  10  10  20   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ630>636-
     650-655.

&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob