554
FXUS64 KMOB 011746
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1246 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

We`ll start off the day Friday with one upper high pressure area
centered over north central Mexico and the other centered over
the Florida Peninsula. Upper level weakness in the form of a weak
upper trough will reside over the lower Mississippi River region
between these two systems. The Florida upper high will get shunted
off to the south as the upper trough slips eastward over the
southeast states by the end of the week. A stronger medium
amplified upper trough is then forecast to be over much of the
eastern CONUS and northern Gulf through early next week. This
persistent weakness aloft will bring enhanced daily rain chances
through early next week. Activity will generally follow a typical
diurnal pattern, with showers and storms developing during the
morning over our marine zones and along the coast, and then spread
inland throughout the day with scattered to numerous coverage of
showers and thunderstorms by early afternoon. Showers and storms
will then linger through at least mid-evening before dissipating.
We can`t rule out a few strong storms with gusty winds, frequent
lightning, as well as very heavy rainfall.

As far as temperatures are concerned, we will likely remain just
below the lower end of our Heat Advisory criteria (108 degrees)
Friday and Saturday, although a few isolated locations could
manage to briefly top off near 110 degrees. With the stronger
medium amplified upper trough over our area early next week, we
expect some cooler temperatures. Highs are expected to drop into
the low/mid 80s northeast of a Butler to Crestview line Monday and
Tuesday, with upper 80s to around 90 degrees across the remainder
of the forecast area. A LOW risk of rip currents will continue
through early next week. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Mostly VFR conditions this afternoon will become MVFR to IFR
mainly north of I-10 as scattered showers and thunderstorms
develop. Storms will likely persist into the early evening before
dissipating by midnight as VFR conditions return through tomorrow
morning. Winds will be light out of the southwest becoming light
and variable overnight. BB-8

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow will continue
through the end of the week, shifting to a light southerly flow
through early next week. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or
less. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  92  73  89  73  87  72  87 /  30  90  50  80  50  80  50  80
Pensacola   79  91  77  90  76  86  75  87 /  20  80  70  90  60  80  60  80
Destin      81  91  78  90  77  87  77  88 /  20  80  70  90  70  80  70  80
Evergreen   74  93  72  89  71  86  70  86 /  50  90  60  80  50  80  50  80
Waynesboro  73  89  71  88  70  87  70  87 /  50  80  40  60  30  60  30  60
Camden      73  90  71  87  70  84  69  85 /  50  80  50  70  40  70  40  70
Crestview   75  93  73  89  72  85  72  87 /  20  90  60  90  60  90  60  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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