371
FXUS64 KMOB 192330
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
630 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...Now through Sunday night...
For the remainder of the weekend, an amplified pattern in the height
field at high levels persists with a ridge axis aligned from the
Gulf, northeast to off the Mid-Atlantic coast and a trough ejecting
northeast across the southern/central Plains. The zone of active
weather extends from TX, northeast to across the Mid MS River Valley
in close proximity and east of a slow eastward advancing cold front.
The ridge aloft appears strong enough to keep the area rain-free
through Sunday evening. Later in the night and toward day-break
Monday, may see a slight chance of showers breaking out over
portions of southeast MS. Higher based clouds look to thicken
through the remainder of the weekend and although forecasters cannot
discount some patchy late night fog, the coverage of cloud cover
appears to mitigate overnight fog coverage and intensity. Will
continue to monitor.

With high pressure positioned to our east, well established low
level south to southeast flow favors unseasonably warm Spring time
temperatures.

The risk of rip currents lifts to HIGH beginning tonight and
continues into the early half of next week. /10

Monday through Saturday...
Upper level high pressure centered off the Florida Atlantic coast
with a ridge stretching north over the East Coast that has hung
tough into Monday will begin to tilt anticyclonically as a series of
shortwave troughs move over the Central/Southern Plains. By
Wednesday, the upper pattern has transformed into zonal upper flow
over the Southeast, with a series of shortwave troughs passing over
the Southeast. A surface cold front moves to areas northwest of the
forecast area as a closes upper system exits a mean upper trough
over the Plains Sunday into Monday. This front becomes the focus for
rainfall in the coming week. Another shortwave passing Tuesday
shifts the surface front a bit further southeast, closer to the
forecast area. Will need to monitor where this boundary moves, with
isentropic upglide heavy rain a possibility with the Tuesday system
and another passing Wednesday night into Thursday. Guidance is
painting precipitable h20 levels rising into the 1.5"-1.6" range in
areas near or over the forecast area (generally west of I-65), and
MLCapes rising to around 1000j/kg, enough for localized heavy rain,
maybe more extensive if the surface front is re-enforced. South of
the boundary and the moister air Tuesday, SBCapes rise to around
2000J/kg, with DCapes in the 600-900J/kg range and an elevated dry
layer, enough for a few strong to marginally severe downburst storms
if they get tall enough. Bulk shear remains low, so organization of
these storms is not expected away from the surface boundary. This
boundary retreats north under steady southerly flow mid week into
the weekend.

Temperatures remain at or above seasonal norms Monday for the coming
week. High temperatures range from the upper 70s near the coast to
low to mid 80s well inland rise into the mid to upper 80s well
inland, around 80 to low 80s closer to the coast for Thursday into
the weekend. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s expected for
most of the period.

A High Risk of Rip Currents is expected Monday into midweek with
onshore flow continuing to bring swell to area beaches. A wide tidal
range this weekend will slowly decrease in the coming week, with the
Rip Current Risk easing to a Moderate by the end of the week.
/16
&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

MVFR ceilings will return tonight with patchy fog. VFR conditions
return for Sunday. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

High pressure over the west Atlantic noses west into the local area
through the upcoming week, with a light to moderate south to
southeast flow firmly established. Considering the persistent fetch,
seas look to remain 3, to perhaps around 5 feet in range over the
next few days before trending lower to 2 to 3 feet Wed/Thu. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      64  82  66  82  66  82  65  82 /   0   0  10  20  20  50  10  30
Pensacola   66  78  67  79  68  79  67  80 /   0   0   0  10  10  30   0  20
Destin      67  78  68  79  68  80  68  80 /   0   0   0   0  10  20   0  10
Evergreen   59  85  59  85  61  84  60  86 /   0   0   0  10  10  50  10  20
Waynesboro  61  85  64  82  64  82  62  83 /   0   0  10  60  40  80  10  40
Camden      61  84  60  84  62  81  61  83 /   0   0   0  30  30  70  10  30
Crestview   59  83  58  85  60  85  60  87 /   0   0   0   0  10  20   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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