959
FXUS64 KMOB 131941
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
241 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 241 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

- Hot conditions continue through late week into the weekend. Heat
  advisories remain in effect through late this afternoon and
  again Friday afternoon for high heat indices up to 112. Additional
  heat advisories will likely be needed this weekend.

- A Low risk of rip currents continues through the weekend, with a
  Moderate risk of rip currents returning for Florida Panhandle
  beaches early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

The ridge will continue to build over the area. Ensemble mean 500 mb
heights increase to around 597-598 dam over the weekend. The center
of the ridge is closer to us over the next few days, so these are
most likely to be the hottest. The area also has decent moisture
with near/just above normal PWATs for this time of year with values
of 1.8-2.1" through mid next week.

Isolated storms are expected with the afternoon seabreeze through
the end of the week and become isolated to scattered over the whole
area for the weekend. DCAPE will continue to be elevated with values
of ~1000 J/kg, so any showers and thunderstorms will have the
potential for stronger downburst winds in addition to heavy rainfall
and lightning.

The main impact through the period is the heat. A Heat Advisory is
in effect for the entire area through 8PM today and 11AM-8PM
tomorrow for heat index values up to 112. The heat headlines will
most likely last at least through the beginning of next week. Daily
high temperatures are in the mid to upper 90s for most inland areas
with afternoon dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s. This
brings heat indices up to 105-112 with some isolated areas briefly
reaching up to 115. There continues be little overnight relief with
low temperatures through mid next week only reaching the mid 70s
inland and the upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. Anybody
outdoors should drink plenty of water, take breaks in A/C when
possible, and monitor for signs of heat illness.

...BEACH FORECAST...

The rip current risk will be low tomorrow through the weekend.
Onshore flow ramps up next week and will increase the rip current
risk, particularly for Florida beaches. Outside of any storms,
surf heights remain generally 1-2 feet through mid next week.

SS/97

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR flight category prevails across the forecast area through
Friday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late
morning into the afternoon hours each day may temporarily reduce
flight category at times in addition to potentially strong,
variable wind gusts. Winds remain out of the southwest at around 5
to 10 knots this afternoon, becoming light and variable tonight.
Winds turn out of the northwest at around 5 knots to start the day
Friday. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow pattern persists
across the marine waters through this weekend, with light to
moderate westerly flow becoming established early next week.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms can be expected each
morning with locally higher seas and winds near storms. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  96  76  96 /   0  20   0  20
Pensacola   79  95  79  95 /   0  30  10  30
Destin      80  93  80  93 /   0  20   0  30
Evergreen   75  97  76  97 /  10  30  20  50
Waynesboro  76  99  76 100 /  10  10   0  10
Camden      76  96  76  96 /   0  20   0  30
Crestview   76  97  76  97 /  10  40  10  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$