174
FXUS64 KMOB 161211
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
711 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Now through Friday...

Upper level shortwave energy digs a mean upper trough along the East
Coast through the weekend, splitting an upper ridge over the
Southeast/Caribbean. A surface ridge stretching south along the west
side of the Appalachians organizes, moving a drier airmass southwest
over the Southeast over the weekend into the coming week. This will
shift the better chance of showers and thunderstorms south of the
coast into the coming week, and leave low to no PoPs over the
northern half of the forecast area by Tuesday. Gulf moisture will
move inland over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River
Valley on the west side of the surface ridge beginning Tuesday, with
increasing moisture levels eventually moving back over the Southeast
Wednesday into the end of the week. Several pieces of shortwave
energy move around the base of the upper ridge today into the
weekend stretching east over the Tennessee River to the DelMarVa
peninsula into the weekend, helping with the rain chances. More
shortwave energy swings south over the eastern Conus, beginning to
dig another mean upper trough over the eastern Conus. This increases
rain chances Wednesday into the latter half of the week.

Looking at the path of Erin, guidance still has Erin moving around
the west side of upper level high pressure over the open Atlantic
into the east side of the East Coast upper trough. This will keep
Erin from moving to over the East Coast, mainly affecting some
portions of the Caribbean.

The upper ridge remains near enough to the Southeast to keep
temperatures around to a above seasonal norms through the forecast.
Temperatures topping out around 90 into the mid 90s into Wednesday
before dropping into the upper 80s to around 90 for Friday. Moisture
levels remain high enough through the weekend for Heat Indices to
top out in the 104-110 degree range through the weekend before
dropping early in the coming week. A Heat Advisory has been issued
for the area for Saturday, and may be re-issued over the
southwestern quarter of the forecast areas over the weekend. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s north of I-10, mid 70s to near 80
south to the coast are expected through the forecast.

A weak, diurnally driven flow will counterbalance an increasing
tidal cycle, keeping the risk of Rip Currents Low through the
weekend into the coming week.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Some patchy fog and low ceilings have led to a few
isolated areas of IFR to LIFR visbys and ceilings with VFR across
the remainder fo the area. Expect VFR to return areawide this
morning and persist throughout the day. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will likely develop after noon mainly west
of I-65. VFR conditions will return overnight as storms subside
before midnight. Winds will be light out of the south. BB-8

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      94  75  95  74  94  75  94  74 /  40  10  40  10  40  10  30  10
Pensacola   93  77  92  76  91  77  93  76 /  30  20  40  20  40  10  30  10
Destin      92  79  92  78  91  78  93  78 /  30  20  50  20  30  10  20  10
Evergreen   95  74  95  72  96  73  96  73 /  20  10  30  10  20  10  20  10
Waynesboro  95  74  95  73  96  73  96  73 /  30  10  20  10  20  10  20  10
Camden      94  74  94  73  95  74  96  74 /  20  10  20   0  10   0  10  10
Crestview   95  74  93  73  94  73  94  73 /  40  20  50  10  30   0  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ052-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201-203>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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