023
FXUS64 KMOB 221941
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
241 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New UPDATE, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 242 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

  - Tropical storm force wind gusts and coastal flooding is
    impacting the immediate Alabama coastal areas with another
    round of minor coastal flooding likely Thursday morning.

  - Dangerous and life-threatening beach conditions will persist
    through Thursday.

  - Heat will build over the weekend into early next week and Heat
    Advisories or Excessive Heat warnings may become necessary.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Multiple hazards remain in effect through Thursday as Tropical
Storm Bertha exits our local marine waters. Bertha is currently
south- southwest of Pascagoula, MS, as of early this afternoon and
continues to move generally westward. Outer rain bands continue
across the forecast area bringing brief heavy rains and gusty
winds to around 40mph. The Tropical Storm Warning remains in
effect for coastal communities along the Alabama coast and
adjacent marine waters through at least late this afternoon, with
the warning for the Florida Panhandle coast being cancelled with
the latest intermediate advisory as winds have begun to relax.

There are multiple coastal hazards in place right now. A High Risk
of rip currents remains in place for all beaches through Thursday
evening. A High Surf Warning will remain in effect through early
Thursday morning. Surf heights of 8 to 11 feet are expected to
continue through this evening, gradually relaxing below 8 feet
prior to daybreak Thursday morning. Surf heights are expected to
fall below 5 feet by early Thursday evening. The high surf heights
and high rip currents will result in hazardous beach conditions.
Residents and tourists are strongly encouraged to stay out of the
water!

Minor coastal flooding is also expected to continue owing to the
strong onshore winds associated with Bertha. A Coastal Flood
Advisory remains in effect for all of the Alabama and western
Florida Panhandle coasts through Thursday morning. Minor coastal
flooding has been observed this morning with most gauges measuring
2 to 2.5 foot MHHW. The expectation is for minor inundation of up
to 2 feet above normally dry ground during periods of high tide
again tonight into early Thursday morning. The high surf heights
combined with the minor coastal flooding will likely result in
minor beach erosion. MM/25

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

With Tropical Storm Bertha forecast to make a second landfall near
the Houston area Thursday afternoon, there will be some lingering
isolated to low-end scattered showers and perhaps a few storms
along and west of I-65 on tomorrow. An upper ridge in place over
the southeast states as we head into the weekend, dry conditions
will occur Friday. The ridge gets nudged westward over the weekend
as an upper trough digs southward just off the eastern seaboard.
As the flow aloft turns northwesterly, there will be a return of a
few daytime showers and storms across our eastern zones over the
weekend into early next week. The main weather story will be the
return of high heat indices with high temperatures increasing into
the middle to upper 90s and apparent temperatures climbing to
between 100-107 over the weekend from 105-112 early in the work
week.

.BEACH FORECAST...Dangerous and life-threatening beach conditions
are expected through Thursday. The rip current risk HIGH for our
Alabama and northwest Florida beaches and will last through
Thursday before dropping to MODERATE Friday through Saturday. A
High Surf Warning is in effect for surf heights up to 8-12 feet
through 6 am Thursday for beaches. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions will prevail through period, with
tempo IFR conditions possible under sporadic rainbands associated
with Tropical Storm Bertha through early this evening. Expect
generally southeasterly winds around 15-25 knots with gusts to
around 30-35 knots near the coast, and generally 10-15 knots
inland. Winds should gradually wane through the overnight, but
remaining around 10-15 knots near the coast through the end of the
period. JGC/98

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Tropical Storm Bertha is located approximately 80 miles south of
Mobile with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and moving west at 6
mph. Waves with this system peak around 10 to 15 feet through
Wednesday evening before subsiding. Tropical storm force winds are
impacting the Gulf waters and will decrease to moderate southerly
winds by Thursday morning. After the system departs, light
southwesterly to westerly winds begin Thursday night and continue
through the weekend. SS/97

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      89  77  91  74 /  80  40  20  10
Pensacola   88  80  90  77 /  70  20  10   0
Destin      88  81  89  78 /  70  20   0   0
Evergreen   90  74  92  72 /  50  20  20   0
Waynesboro  93  76  93  74 /  30  30  30  10
Camden      89  75  90  74 /  40  20  30  10
Crestview   89  75  92  72 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ263>266.

     Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Warning until 3 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Warning until 3 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ630>633-650-670.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ634>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ655-675.

&&

$$