030
FXUS64 KMOB 220949
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
349 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

The coldest airmass of the season so far continues to
envelope the forecast area. Surface high pressure continues to
settle in driving cold air advection across the area promoting dry,
cool weather. Morning lows are on track to bottom out in the lower
to middle 30`s for most locations with upper 30`s to lower 40`s
nearer the coast. Afternoon temperatures will likewise be below
normal, topping out in the upper 50`s inland and lower to middle
60`s nearer the coast. Tonight will once again be a chilly night
with lows falling into the lower to middle 30`s for most locations,
upper 30`s nearer the coast.

Given the expectation for temperatures in the 33 to 36 range over
much of the area tonight, we have opted to issue a Frost Advisory
for all of the forecast area excluding the immediate coast. If
confidence can increase on locations over the interior falling to 32
or lower, a freeze warning may be needed in the afternoon forecast
package. MM/25

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERMS...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

An anomalously deep upper trough will shift eastward into the
western Atlantic through the weekend with mainly zonal flow along
with gradually rising heights. Surface high pressure centered over
the area Saturday will support another cool day with highs mainly
in the lower 60s interior to the middle 60s along the coast. Lows
Sunday morning will be a few degrees warmer with lows in the
middle 30s interior to the middle 40s along the coast. The
surface high should shift east on Sunday and allow for return
southerly low level flow to become re-established. This will
result in a quick rebound in temperatures with most locations
rising back into the lower to middle 70s.

Dry and much warmer conditions will persist through the first part
of the Thanksgiving holiday week. Temperatures will range from the
middle to upper 70s with lows in the 50s interior to the lower and
middle 60s along the coast. Latest GEFS and ENS ensemble guidance
supports a weak shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. An associated weak cold front will
drop southeast across the Mississippi Valley Tuesday before
stalling along or just north of the coast and washing out Tuesday
night. There may be just enough moisture return to support
isolated to scattered showers mainly across the interior portions
of the region. Further south near the coast, most locations should
remain dry as mid level ridging maintains its influence and any
low level convergence weakens with southward extent. Interior
southeast Mississippi, interior southwest Alabama, and south
central Alabama may cool down a few degrees behind the front on
Tuesday afternoon with highs in the upper 60s. Further south,
expect the unseasonably warm temperatures to continue with mainly
mid to upper 70s, especially along the coast.

Warm weather can be expected across the entire area Wednesday
through Thanksgiving Day as southerly flow returns areawide. Dry
weather Wednesday will give way to isolated to scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms on Thanksgiving Day as moisture increases
ahead of a more potent upper trough approaching from the
northwest. This stronger trough will help to drive a stronger cold
front southeast across the area, penetrating deep into the south-
central Gulf of Mexico Thursday night and Friday. Any showers and
thunderstorms should come to an end by Friday morning as much
drier air advances southward behind the front passage.

Canadian high pressure will build into the Deep South behind the
front for the end of the week and into the weekend. This will
result in another noticeable cool down for Friday into the
weekend. Temperatures behind this front drop 10 to 20 degrees with
highs on Friday ranging from the upper 50s across interior areas
to around 70 degrees early in the day across the western Florida
Panhandle, with falling temperatures through the afternoon under
strong cold air advection. Strong northwest winds can also be
expected behind the frontal passage, as colder air overspreads the
relatively warm coastal waters resulting in deep mixing and a
shallow unstable layer developing. This will likely support
another round of Small Craft Advisory level winds and potentially
even Gale conditions across the offshore marine areas. Cool and
dry weather will continue into next weekend with winds gradually
diminishing by next Saturday. /JLH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf waters through
9am this morning. Winds quickly drop to a light to moderate offshore
flow by late afternoon into the evening hours. Light northwesterly
to northerly flow prevails for Saturday, becoming a light and
variable flow into early next week. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      63  37  65  43  73  58  77  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   63  42  64  49  71  61  76  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      62  46  66  51  71  61  77  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   60  33  64  36  71  49  76  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  60  33  64  37  72  51  76  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  20
Camden      59  33  60  35  68  49  74  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  20
Crestview   62  34  67  37  73  49  79  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>058.

     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
     ALZ051>060-261-262.

FL...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
     FLZ201-203-205.

MS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MSZ067.

     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
     MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

&&

$$

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