648
FXUS64 KMOB 121219
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
719 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 712 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

 - Hot and humid conditions return with heat indices in the 100 to
   107 range this weekend.

 - A MODERATE risk of rip currents continues today through early
   next week for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida
   beaches, becoming a HIGH risk by Tuesday.

 - Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases significantly
   early next week bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and
   localized flash flooding.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

With the sun coming up, we can get a good look at what`s happening
around the forecast area visually. The most significant item in
evidence are the abundant lines of cumulous over the Gulf. The
latest SPC non-meso tornado parameter analysis (read that classic
water spout) is very low to not existent, but I am sure there may
be a few weak waterspouts out on the Gulf this morning, but with
the `spouts being too small/low to the water`s surface to be seen
on radar, radar is of no help with this. Otherwise, the forecast
is on track for another seasonable hot day, with heat indices
rising locally rising to above 100.
/16

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Upper ridging gradually shifts south and weakens today into the
weekend. In its place, weak northwest flow develops. Today will
likely be similar to yesterday with generously isolated coverage of
showers and storms, mainly in the vicinity of the seabreeze
boundary. Saturday into Sunday will be more of your typical summer
time afternoon scattered showers and storms. Temperatures remain hot
overall, with afternoon highs topping out in the lower to middle
90`s and heat indices in the 100 to 107 range. Morning temperatures
offer no relief as middle to upper 70`s become common to start the
day Saturday into early next week.

As we head into next week, we will see a pretty substantial pattern
change as upper ridging continues to shifts southwest and upper
troughing becomes dominant. The signal for widespread moderate to
heavy rainfall remains across the region, particularly as we head
into the early to middle part of next week. It remains too early to
get into the details on things, but overall deterministic and
ensemble guidance supports a favorable pattern for heavy rainfall
and localized flash flooding potential during this timeframe. The
axis of heaviest rainfall will be contingent on the evolution of the
cold front as it stalls across the gulf coast states and any
shortwaves rounding the base of the parent trough. As the previous
discussion mentioned, PWAT values are forecast to reach above the
90th percentile for this time of year highlighting the
anomalously moist, tropical airmass forecast to be in place and
supporting the potential for heavy rainfall.

A Moderate risk of rip currents continues and will last for the
foreseeable future. Onshore winds strengthen quite a bit as we head
into early next week, with the risk likely increasing to a High by
Tuesday. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions expected over most of the forecast area through the
forecast. The exception is isolated fog development near sunrise
bringing IFR VISBYs to some localities.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A diurnal pattern of light westerly to northwesterly flow in the
morning and southwesterly flow during the afternoon and evening is
expected today through the weekend. A moderate southwest flow early
next week should gradually veer to more southerly by midweek with an
increasing onshore component. Locally higher winds and seas will be
possible near and around thunderstorms. MM/JGC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      92  75  93  76 /  20   0  10   0
Pensacola   89  77  91  78 /  10   0  10   0
Destin      87  78  87  79 /  10   0  10   0
Evergreen   94  75  93  75 /  10   0  30  10
Waynesboro  93  75  93  75 /  10  10  20  10
Camden      93  75  93  75 /  10  10  30  20
Crestview   94  75  94  75 /  20   0  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$