818
FXUS64 KMOB 141715
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1215 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Upper trough axis was positioned over the southeast US, with a
high level northwest flow in place over the local area. Embedded
in this flow is a very subtle disturbance bringing a patch of
clouds east southeast across the central MS and very isolated weak
returns on radar. Would not be surprised to see a few isolated
showers or sprinkles moving across the Hwy 84 corridor into the
afternoon. Rain chances though generally 10% or less, but non-
zero and any amounts will be brief and light up that way. /10

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 447 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Now Through Thursday Night...

A northwesterly flow pattern aloft will persist through Thursday
as an upper ridge builds over the Gulf. Its axis passes overhead
Thursday night. At the surface, high pressure remains planted over
the Florida Peninsula, helping to maintain southwesterly winds
across the area. With strong subsidence in place and PWATs only
around an inch, no rain is expected through the period.
Temperatures and dew points will continue to increase as ridging
builds in and low-level moisture advects in from the Gulf. Highs
today will reach the mid to upper 80s, increasing to the upper 80s
to low 90s for Thursday. Lows tonight and Thursday night will
only drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. A Moderate Risk of rip
currents will be in place through the period, although a brief
High Risk cannot be ruled out for Thursday morning. /96

Friday Through Tuesday...

The upper ridge over the southeast states will become rather
flattened Friday night through Saturday as a upper closed low
pressure area over northern Minnesota moves eastward over the Great
Lakes region. Another upper ridge will then build over the eastern
CONUS Sunday night into Tuesday. There is not a lot happening in the
low levels as a surface ridge extending from the western Atlantic
into the eastern Gulf persists, thus maintaining a light southerly
flow through the period.

This pattern will keep temperatures above normal, with highs
averaging about 4 to 8 degrees above normal interior areas and from
1 to 3 degrees above normal closer to the coast. We are not making
any modifications to the NBM guidance, and expect highs to range
from 90 to 95 degrees interior areas, and from 85 to 90 degrees
closer to the coast. Apparent temperatures (heat indices) are
expected to be in mid to upper 90s each day away from the immediate
coast. Lows will average about 8 to 12 degrees above normal across
the entire forecast area, and settle in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
We should see mid 70s along the beaches each night.

There could be some isolated to low-end scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of U.S. Highway 84 over the weekend as the upper
closed low pressure area passes well to our north and upper level
impulses traverse our region in zonal flow aloft. Otherwise it will
be dry. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

A few to scattered cig bases generally 2 to 4 kft this afternoon
for the TAF sites. With high pressure positioned to the east of
the local area, a south to southwest flow is maintained 10 to 15
kts with gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon. Winds relax after
15.00Z. /10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 447 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Light to moderate southwesterly flow will persist through
the period. Exercise caution headlines may be needed tonight for
marine waters off the Alabama coast. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      68  87  71  88  71  89  71  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0   0
Pensacola   73  85  74  85  75  87  74  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      74  84  75  85  75  86  75  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   64  92  67  93  68  93  69  93 /   0   0   0   0   0  20  10  20
Waynesboro  65  92  68  93  70  92  69  91 /   0  10   0   0   0  30  10  20
Camden      65  90  68  92  70  91  69  90 /  10   0   0   0   0  30  20  30
Crestview   66  89  67  91  68  92  69  92 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob