207
FXUS64 KMOB 031729
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1229 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 438 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Today through Friday night...
Deep southwesterly flow will continue over the area today through
Friday night as high pressure off to the east of the area continues
to ridge in from the west. A nearly stationary frontal boundary
will remain positioned west to the northwest of our area,
generally stretching from the midwest states southwest across
Arkansas and into eastern Texas through Friday night. The pressure
gradient between the high to the east and front to the west will
maintain a moderate to occasionally strong southwest to southerly
flow across our area through Friday night, although not quite as
strong of a flow as we experienced on Wednesday. As such, for now
we will not be issuing a Wind Advisory for today, but will
monitor conditions. With the onshore flow, deeper moisture is
gradually developing over the area, especially the western half.
There could be a very isolated shower today over our western
zones, but too isolated to include a PoP for today. On Friday
there could be a little more shower/storm coverage over the
western portions of the forecast area, although still isolated we
will carry a small 20 percent or less PoP in those areas Friday
afternoon. We will not issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for today,
as onshore winds will be a little lower than yesterday. Even with
the stronger winds yesterday, no notable coastal flooding was
observed and guidance indicates similar (or slightly lower) water
levels for today and remain below criteria. Another warm couple of
days expected today and Friday, with highs in the mid to upper
80s over inland areas and mid 70s to around 80 at the coast. Lows
tonight will be warm, above normal and a little above NBM guidance
as well, remaining in the low 70s coastal and southwest inland
zones and the mid and upper 60s elsewhere. Lows Friday night will
be in the upper 60s to lower 70s for inland areas west of I-65 and
mid 60s east. Down closer to the coast expect lows in the lower
70s Friday night. A HIGH Risk of rip currents continues through
Friday night. DS/12

Saturday through Wednesday...
Shortwave energy moving through an upper system over the Great Lakes
first draws a shortwave trough out of the persistent mean upper
trough over the Plains, taking it northeast on the west side of an
upper ridge over the East Coast. A cold front moves southeast over
the Southeast Saturday night into Sunday night in response, slowing
down as it moves southeast of I-65 Sunday. Additional upper energy
moving through the Great Lakes upper trough draws the Plains upper
trough eastwards as a positively tilted upper trough, shifting the
East Coast ridge to over the Atlantic. The cold front moved south
over the Gulf, and a cooler airmass moves over the forecast for the
coming week. There is concern of strong to severe storms for the
forecast area Saturday night into Sunday. Instability in the
guidance is modest Saturday night into Sunday, with MUCapes around
1000J/jg. Bulk Shear is around 45 knots, all pretty marginal. The
concerns lies with upper support from a passing 115kt upper jet
Saturday night into Sunday helping a squall line as it crosses the
forecast area Sunday night into Monday. Will need to monitor,
especially with the development of severe storms west of the
forecast area Saturday. Strong low level flow is expected to
continue into the weekend, with a possible wind advisory and
coastal/beach issues ahead of the coming front this weekend.
Looking at temperatures, another day of temperatures rising to
well above seasonal norms is expected Saturday, with low to mid
80s expected north of I-10, upper 70s to near 80 south to the
coast. Sunday is a transitional day as the front moves across the
forecast area, but by Monday, guidance is indicating 60s returning
to the forecast area for high temperatures. Temperatures moderate
upwards into the around 70 to low 70s range for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Saturday night is the last night of low temperatures in
the 60`s, with mid to upper 60s expected. By Monday night, low
temperatures in the mid to upper 40s are expected, closer to
seasonal norms. A High Risk of Rip Currents is expected through
the weekend, decreasing to Moderate into into the Monday in the
offshore flow in the wake of the front. SM/16 DS/12

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Gusty southeast winds will continue through the period. MVFR to
IFR ceilings will prevail this afternoon before lowering tonight
with patchy fog developing. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 438 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Small Craft Advisory (SCY) conditions will continue over Mobile
Bay, Mississippi Sound and the Alabama Gulf marine zones through 1
PM this afternoon. We extended the SCY for the Bay and the Sound
until 1 PM as well, it was originally scheduled to expire at 7 AM
this morning, but winds should remain near SCY through early
afternoon. Winds elsewhere across the marine area at SCEC levels
today. At least SCEC level winds/seas will continue with a
moderate to strong onshore flow through Saturday, with a front
passing east across the marine area on Sunday. A moderate to
strong offshore flow develop in the wake of the front on Sunday
night and continue into the early part of next week. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  81  70  81  67  76  52  66 /  10  10   0  20  60  90  60  40
Pensacola   70  77  70  78  71  77  58  66 /  10   0   0  10  20  70  70  60
Destin      69  78  69  78  71  77  61  69 /  10   0   0   0  10  70  70  70
Evergreen   67  86  65  86  66  76  51  66 /   0   0   0  10  30  90  70  40
Waynesboro  69  85  69  86  64  72  48  65 /  10  20   0  50  80  80  30  20
Camden      68  87  66  86  65  74  50  63 /   0   0   0  20  40  90  50  30
Crestview   68  84  65  84  67  79  55  69 /   0   0   0   0  10  70  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
     GMZ630>632-650-670.

&&

$$

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