059
FXUS64 KMOB 212314
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
514 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR conditions persist next 24 hrs. West to Northwest winds
breezy thru about 22.02Z then decreasing. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday night)
Issued at 401 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

The center of a large upper low pressure system over the headwaters
of the Ohio River Valley will move slowly eastward to the vicinity
of New York City late tonight. This low pressure will become nearly
stationary through Friday evening before eventually ejecting east
over the Atlantic late Friday night. A northwesterly surface wind
will continue through the period between the surface low associated
with the upper low over the northeast, and a surface ridge to our
west. Under clear skies, inland temperatures tonight and Friday
night should lower to between 33 to 38 degrees, with the coolest
temps across our northern zones where areas of frost are expected to
form. Therefore, a Frost Advisory is in effect from 3 AM TO 8 AM
Friday morning, and another Frost Advisory will likely be needed for
Saturday morning. Temperatures tonight closer to the coast should
range from 38 to 42 degrees, where some patchy frost is possible,
mainly on roof tops and unprotected areas. Mid 40s are expected
along the beaches. Dry and cool conditions will continue through
Friday, with highs ranging from 57 to 62 degrees. /22

SHORT AND LONG TERMS...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 401 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Through the weekend, zonal upper flow sets up over the eastern Conus
as a closed upper low off the Mid Atlantic/New England coast moves
off. A weak upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico also moves off.
Surface high pressure along the Mississippi River shifts east
through the weekend, with light northerly flow becoming a light
southerly by Sunday night over the Southeast, and moisture levels
increasing in the coming week. Shortwave energy moving through the
zonal flow north of the forecast area moves a weak cold front south
over the Southeast Monday night into early Wednesday. Guidance
varies on the path and strength of the shortwave energy and with
that, how far south the from moves by mid week. The ECMWF continues
to be the more southern model, with the front now stalling along the
northern Gulf coast by Tuesday night. The GFS has been more more
consistent, with the front stalling closer to the I-20 corridor. All
indicate the front retreating north as a surface ridge builds west
over the northern Gulf, reasserting southerly flow over the
Southeast. Precipitable h20 values creep up into the 1.3"-1.5" range
as the front moves south, bringing isolated to scattered rainshowers
to the forecast area Tuesday night. With limited instability, a few
rumbles mixed in are possible, but few and far between. Another
small chance of rainshowers is possible Wednesday into Thursday as
more shortwave energy passes near the forecast area.

Temperatures around to a bit below seasonal norms start the weekend,
then warm up to well above in the coming week. Starting with low
temperatures, near freezing temperatures are again possible Saturday
night generally north of Highway 84. Mid 30s well inland to low 40s
along the coast are also expected. Frost is again possible late
Saturday night, with the greatest coverage being north of Highway 84
and the southern extent being just south. From there, the southerly
flow and increase in moisture levels will help to limit low
temperatures to the 50s to around 60, with mid 50s to low 60s
expected Monday night as the front works it way south over the
Southeast. High temperatures in the low to mid 60s Saturday rise
into the mid to upper 70s for Monday, then cool into the around 70s
north of Highway 84 to mid 70s south as an increase in cloud tempers
daytime heating over areas well inland from the coast.

With general offshore flow becoming a light onshore, tidal piling on
the coast is not expected. A low chance of rip currents is expected
through the weekend and the coming week.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will remain in effect for
the Gulf Waters through 9 AM Friday morning, and small craft
operators should exercise caution elsewhere. Otherwise, a moderate to
strong northwesterly to northerly winds are expected to continue
through Friday morning, especially over the offshore Gulf waters.
Winds and seas begin to relax as we head into the weekend, with a
light northwesterly to northerly flow expected on Saturday. Light
flow, somewhat variable at times, is then expected through early
next week. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      38  61  38  65  42  73  57  77 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   43  62  42  64  47  71  61  76 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      47  62  45  66  49  71  62  77 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   35  59  34  64  34  71  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  35  59  33  64  35  71  52  76 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      35  57  33  60  33  68  48  73 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   34  60  33  67  34  73  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CST Friday for ALZ051>058.

FL...None.
MS...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CST Friday for MSZ067.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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