189
FXUS64 KMOB 181126
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
626 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 615 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for inland areas with a targeted
  Extreme Heat Warning for coastal zones Tuesday afternoon into
  the evening for heat indices of 105-115. Additional heat
  advisories will likely be needed through much of the week.

- There is a Moderate risk of rip currents for area beaches in
  Florida and Alabama through Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

A few rainshowers were present over the southern half of the
forecast area and coastal waters at sunrise. Am expecting these
showers to redevelop inland later this morning and last through
the afternoon, strengthening during the heat of the day. No
updates needed at this time.
/16

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

The ridge continues to bring very hot conditions to the area. While
under the upper ridge, we remain under generally pretty weak upper
level flow. The area also has decent moisture with near/above normal
PWATs for this time of year with values of 2.0-2.3" through the end
of the week.

A surface high pressure out over the Gulf provides light westerly to
northwesterly flow through morning before the seabreeze advances
inland during the afternoon which is the general surface pattern
that lasts through the week. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected each afternoon over much of the area this
week with some isolated storms over marine areas most mornings. Most
of the convection will be driven by the sea breeze and any resultant
outflow boundaries in the afternoon. We have plenty of moisture and
instability, so any showers and thunderstorms that get organized
enough will have the potential for strong winds in addition to heavy
rainfall and lightning.

The main impact through the period continues to be the heat. An
Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for all coastal zones of Florida
and Alabama and a Heat Advisory for inland areas from 11AM-8PM
Tuesday. The heat headlines will last through much of the week
before we most likely fall just below criteria for the weekend.
Daily high temperatures are in the mid to upper 90s for most inland
areas and possibly reaching 100, especially in our southeast
Mississippi counties. Afternoon dewpoints will be generally in the
low to mid 70s inland and mid to upper 70s along the coast. This
brings heat indices up to the 105-115 range, with the highest values
along the coast as the sea breeze advances inland. There continues
be little overnight relief with low temperatures through late week
only reaching down to the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to near
80 along the coast. Anybody outdoors should drink plenty of water,
take breaks in A/C when possible, and monitor for signs of heat
illness.

The ridge does start breaking down over the area towards the end of
the week and into the weekend with the trough to moving further down
towards the area. This could help break the pattern of daily heat
headlines with max and min temps decreasing a few degrees. More
organized convection could move through the area if any waves make
it down here as the base of the trough reaches into northern/central
Alabama. This would provide some welcomed slight relief after the
extended heat over the last week.

...BEACH FORECAST...

The rip current risk will be moderate for all area beaches in
Florida and Alabama through Wednesday. Outside of any storms, surf
heights remain generally 1-2 feet through the week and into the
weekend, potentially reaching up to 3 feet Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoon with increased marine winds.

SS/97

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

General VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Local
drops to low to mid MVFR levels are possible with stronger
thunderstorms developing inland this afternoon. Southwest to west
winds 5 to 10 mph will become light overnight.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 118 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southwest to westerly flow pattern
persists across the marine waters in the coming week. Isolated to
potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each
morning with locally higher seas and winds near storms. No impacts
expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near
thunderstorms.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      96  77  95  76 /  40  30  50  10
Pensacola   96  80  95  79 /  40  20  50  10
Destin      94  81  94  80 /  40  10  30  10
Evergreen   99  75  98  73 /  50  30  30  10
Waynesboro 101  75 100  71 /  50  30  40  20
Camden      97  74  97  74 /  40  40  20  10
Crestview   98  75  97  74 /  50  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>060-261-262.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for ALZ263>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201-203-205.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$