278
FXUS64 KMOB 041852
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
152 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A rather unsettled pattern will continue through the first half of
the week as a surface low moves north across Louisiana and gets
absorb by a larger upper trough over the western US. We will be
positioned on the eastern or dirty side of this system with deep
southerly flow developing across the area. Expect a plume of deep
tropical moisture to surge northward tonight and into the day on
Sunday with PWATS likely approaching 2 inches across the area.
Steadily increasing ascent will spread northward throughout the
day on Sunday and persisting into Monday. Periods of rain with
isolated pockets of heavy rain will be likely Sunday and Monday
helping slowly wittle away at increasing drought conditions.
Expect rain to begin sometime late tonight into early Sunday
morning and just persist on and off through Monday. Other than
some rain the next 48 hours, concerns will mainly just remain at
the coastline with high surf, minor coastal overwash and High risk
of rip currents.

By the middle of the week high pressure will begin to retrograde
westward across the deep south leading to some drying of
conditions across the area. Rather zonal flow will develop by
Wednesday as the upper ridge flattens out and some moisture is
expected to linger across the area. However, subsidence from the
upper ridge should limit any rain chances to the more standard
isolated to scattered storms along any seabreeze that does develop
each afternoon. Some increased activity could occur further
inland as a weak upper trough attempts to dig into the eastern
CONUS Thursday and Friday. Overall, the second half of the week
will likely be a return to warm temperatures and dry conditions.
Expect highs to steadily climb into the upper 80s by Wednesday
into Thursday. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through this evening. By
the early morning hours rain will develop over the northern Gulf
and will slowly spread northward. Flight categories should begin
to reduce to MVFR or IFR by the mid to late morning hours as
heavier rainfall, and possibly a few thunderstorms, move in.
Northeasterly to easterly winds of around 10 knots, with gusts to
around 20 knots, will continue through the period. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf through the
weekend as strong easterly flow persists at the base of a strong
surface ridge across the southeast states. Seas will continue to
range from 7 to 9 feet well offshore. Winds will gradually
decrease Monday with seas slowly subsiding. A moderate to
occasionally strong easterly to northeasterly flow will follow
through midweek. BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  80  70  83  69  86  69  88 /  50  70  60  60  20  30  10  20
Pensacola   72  81  72  84  73  86  72  86 /  50  70  60  50  20  30  10  20
Destin      72  83  72  85  73  85  72  86 /  40  60  50  50  20  30  10  20
Evergreen   68  83  68  87  68  89  67  90 /  10  40  30  40  10  20  10  20
Waynesboro  66  80  67  83  67  86  67  87 /  10  40  30  40  10  20  10  20
Camden      67  83  67  85  67  87  67  88 /  10  30  30  30  10  10  10  20
Crestview   68  82  69  85  69  86  67  88 /  20  60  40  50  10  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ631-
     632.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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