801
FXUS64 KMOB 110731
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
231 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 216 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

 - High rain chances continue through Saturday with the potential
   for localized flash flooding. A few strong storms capable of
   producing strong wind gusts will be possible.

 - Waterspouts are possible with any storms over the marine waters
   today, primarily from the pre-dawn hours through mid- morning.

 - High temperature are expected to increase next week with heat
   indices ranging from 100-107 degrees.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE for Waterspouts and Potential Localized
Flooding...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Overall forecast philosophy remains on track with the potential
for waterspouts and localized flooding across coastal counties
through mid morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been
developing in north-south oriented bands across the marine
waters, periodically shifting onshore. The expectation is for this
activity to become increasingly concentrated across coastal
counties of southwest Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle
over the next few hours posing the threat for flash flooding. As
previously mentioned, very high PWAT values approaching 2.3 to
2.5 inches will support very heavy rainfall with any storms. A
weak surface trough remains situated across the coastal counties
which should help to focus storms across those areas. Sampled
forecast soundings across the coast show deep, moist profiles
supporting those anomalously high PWATs. In addition to this, weak
corfidi vectors less than 10 knots will promote the potential for
backbuilding/training of storms along any existing boundaries.
Rainfall rates in storms could approach or exceed 2 inches per
hour at times, and a corridor of rainfall totals through mid
morning approaching 5 or 6 inches can`t be ruled out. 00z HREF
LPMM values support this in addition to latest CAM guidance, with
increasing confidence on a corridor of higher rainfall totals, but
low confidence on the exact placement. The nature of the
potential flooding is isolated enough with low confidence on
placement to preclude issuing any flood watch products, but is
certainly something to keep an eye on through mid morning. MM/25

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

The upper ridge has been weakening across the Southeast with an
advancing shortwave moving in from the west through today. At the
surface, a weak low pressure and surface trough is currently just
off the coast and is projected to move generally north-northeast
into southern Mississippi by the morning. This morning in particular
has become more interesting with the low pressure moving closer with
the surface trough and the daily land breeze acting as extra
convergence. Some bands of precipitation have already developed
mostly over offshore waters. These could begin causing some flooding
concerns over our coastal counties if they line up to train over the
same areas. Ensemble 6-hour PMMs are showing some areas of enhanced
rainfall of 4-6 inches along the coastal zones. Additionally, storms
over coastal waters have an enhanced waterspout potential with the
non-supercell tornado parameter quickly increasing near the surface
trough and weak low.

Deep layer moisture has returned to the area after the below normal
PWATs earlier this week. We have quickly rebounded well above normal
with values in the 2.2-2.4 inch range. The latest 00Z sounding to
the west at LIX shows the entire atmospheric column close to fully
saturated and a 2.35 inch PWAT which is well above the 90th
percentile based on sounding climatology. Ensembles show this deep
moisture plume of 2+ inch PWATs persisting through at least Monday
morning. These high PWATs and warm mid-level temperatures with a
freezing level of 15,000+ feet will support very efficient warm rain
processes within any convection. The area in turn has increased
precipitation and localized flooding chances through the weekend.

Temperatures will be near normal for this time of year in the upper
80s and low 90s. Afternoon dewpoints should stay generally in the
low 70s to perhaps the upper 60s inland where the most efficient
mixing occurs with mid 70s closer to the coast. This should keep the
heat indices below criteria for the forecast period.

Ridging builds back into the area by the end of the weekend and into
the beginning of next week. We are on the southern periphery of the
ridge under easterly flow before the ridge begins to retrograde to
the west by the end of the week. This results in increasing
temperatures back above normal in the mid 90s inland and the low 90s
along the coast as well as lower precipitation chances.

...BEACH FORECAST...

The rip current risk is now low today and lasts through mid next
week for all area beaches in Florida and Alabama. Outside of any
storms, surf heights remain generally 1 to 2 feet through the end of
next week.

SS/97

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR flight category presently prevails across the region. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to begin moving
into the area from the south later into the overnight through
daybreak, bringing with them reductions in ceiling and visibility.
These will mainly affect the coast to start, spreading inland as the
day progresses. VFR flight category should return areawide by late
afternoon into the evening hours. Winds will remain out of the south
to southeast below 5 knots during the night, and 5 to 10 knots during
the day. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Moderate onshore flow continues today, becoming light this
weekend. A diurnal flow pattern sets up Monday before a more
established moderate easterly flow becomes established by mid-week.
Seas will be around 2 feet today, decreasing to 1 foot for the
weekend into early next week. Waterspouts are possible early each
morning. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      87  73  89  73 /  70  50  80  20
Pensacola   87  77  89  77 /  80  60  80  40
Destin      87  78  88  77 /  90  60  60  50
Evergreen   87  71  90  71 /  80  30  70  10
Waynesboro  88  71  91  71 /  70  30  60  10
Camden      86  71  90  72 /  80  40  70  20
Crestview   87  72  90  72 /  80  50  80  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$