046
FXUS64 KMOB 010532
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1232 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...Now through Monday...
A mean upper trough formed over the eastern Conus Monday. Additional
shortwave energy moving into the upper trough over the Southeast
will work with a soupy airmass over the region (precipitable h20
values in the 2.1"-2.3" range) to create a wet period through
Tuesday night. A strong shortwave moves through the trough Wednesday
into Wednesday night, with a weak cold front moving south over the
forecast area late Wednesday into Thursday in response. The air
behind the front is not appreciably cooler, but significantly drier
(moisture levels drop into the 1.0"-1.2" range or drier), shifting
the rain over the forecast south over the Gulf and a dry latter half
of the work week results.

Instability is limited (MLCapes around 1000J/kg) Tuesday, but with
the soupy airmass (precipitable h20 levels in the 2.1"-2.3" range),
the thunderstorms are expected to be efficient rainers. Guidance
continues to paint the best combination of moisture feed off the
Gulf and better instability being over our coastal counties. Will
need to monitor for water issues. Wednesday through the rest of the
week, an upper ridge that has built north over the Plains shifts
east, shifting the upper trough off the East Coast, and bringing
seasonably warm temperatures back to the forecast area. Guidance is
advertising the southern tip of the trough breaking off and
organizing into a weakly organized upper low over the Florida
Peninsula Friday into the weekend. The latest guidance is
advertising this low meandering off the Florida Atlantic Coast.
Atlantic moisture works it way west over the Southeast on the north
side of this upper low and associated weak surface circulation,
bring rain back over the forecast area this weekend into the coming
week. NHC continues to monitor the northeastern Gulf/Atlantic
seaboard area for the low possibility (20%) of this system becoming
tropical.

High temperatures in the beginning of the forecast start below
seasonal norms, then rise the middle of the week into the coming
weekend as the upper ridge comes closer to the forecast area. High
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday rise into the upper 80s
to low 90s for Wednesday, then low to mid 90s for Saturday.
Increasing rain chances Sunday and Monday will drop high
temperatures back into the upper 80s to low 90s by Monday. Heat
indices today are expected to range from 100-106 west of the
Tombigbee river, upper 90s east, due to warmer temperatures west of
the river. The influx of drier air will drop heat indices into the
mid 90s to around 100 range by Thursday. Heat Indices rise back into
the 99 to 105 degree range for Saturday as temperatures rise, then
drop a few degrees Sunday into the coming week as temperatures cool
a bit. Low temperatures see a small fluctuation through the week,
falling from the low to mid 70s Tuesday night to upper 60s to mid
70s well inland from the coast (upper 70s continue along the coast)
Wednesday and Thursday nights before rising into the low to mid 70s
well inland, upper 70s to near 80 system along the coast for the
coming weekend.

A decent tidal cycle will work with a modest onshore swell to bring
a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Tuesday. The Rip Risk drops to a Low
Risk the latter half of the week as the tidal cycle decreases and
the onshore swell drops.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Showers and storms are expected to redevelop across the area again
this morning into the early afternoon hours, with IFR to MVFR
conditions with the stronger storms. Some patchy fog will be
possible during the late night hours over interior areas. Light
and variable winds overnight become southwesterly 5-10 knots
during the day on Tuesday. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

A light to at times moderate onshore flow is expected early in the
week. A surface front is expected to move south over the northern
Gulf Wednesday night into Thursday and stall just south of the
marine portion of the forecast area, bringing offshore flow the
latter half of the week. Winds will transition back to an east to
southeast this coming weekend.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  90  71  93  71  95  73  94 /  40  40  10  10   0  10  10  30
Pensacola   74  90  74  93  74  94  76  93 /  50  50  20  20  10  10  10  30
Destin      77  91  77  94  78  95  79  94 /  60  50  30  20  10  20  20  30
Evergreen   70  91  69  94  68  96  71  96 /  30  30   0  10   0  10   0  20
Waynesboro  71  91  68  93  69  95  71  96 /  30  20   0  10   0   0   0  10
Camden      70  89  68  90  68  92  71  94 /  30  20   0  10   0  10   0  10
Crestview   71  90  70  94  69  96  71  95 /  40  60  10  20   0  20  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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