659
FXUS64 KMOB 031129
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
629 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances increase on Friday through
  the upcoming weekend. A few storms could become strong with
  locally strong wind gusts and isolated flooding from intense
  rainfall rates the primary concerns. A mainly morning waterspout
  risk will also continue each day across marine areas.

- Highest heat index values of 103 to 107 are expected mainly
  Sunday and Monday, and a few areas may see values of 108 to 110.
  Heat related products may be needed for portions of the area
  early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Performed a brief gridded forecast update to reflect recent/latest
guidance through the day today. No major changes to the forecast
needed, other than ingesting the latest NBM PoPs for later this
afternoon, which is coming in noticably higher, matching most
recent CAM guidance for areas generally along/west of Mobile into
SE MS, where the greatest coverage/confidence will be today.
Meanwhile, eastern/northern sections of the CWA will remain mostly
dry given slightly drier tropospheric air holding tight today. No
adjustments needed for temperatures as they remain on track as
well, with afternoon heat indices in the 103-107 range. KLG

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

A gradually lessening of the upper high pressure area centered
over the Tennessee Valley to a more elongated ridge from the
central and southern Plains to the Atlantic will occur through
late in the day on Friday. This ridge will then retrograde
westward over the central CONUS through the remainder of the week
as an upper trough digs southward along the Eastern Seaboard. The
mid-lower high pressure area over the Tennessee Valley will also
gradually weaken while a mid-lower easterly wave moves west-
northwestward over the eastern and northern Gulf today through
Friday.

An enhanced deep easterly flow between these two systems will
allow deep moisture to enter into the region with PWATs increasing
up to around 2.4" by noon Friday. Models are now showing a
central closed low pressure area as low as 925mb embedded within
the wave that should reach southern Louisiana by midnight Friday
night with a possibly weak surface low pressure area forming
somewhere across the northeastern Gulf tonight. For today, we are
only expecting isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms
mainly south of Highway 84, followed by isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and storms along the coast overnight. A
substantial increase in PoPs will occur through the remainder of
the week, with numerous to widespread coverage on Friday and
Saturday. Can`t rule out a few strong storms or even perhaps
isolated areas of locally heavy rains resulting in mainly nuisance
type flooding, along with waterspout development possible mainly
during the morning hours each day over the marine area.

We remain in this wetter pattern through at least Monday as the
base of the Eastern Seaboard upper trough remains over the
southeast states along with a possibly backdoor cold front
entering into the forecast area on Sunday and then meanders
through Monday before dissipating. Therefore, we are still
expecting daily occurrences of scattered to numerous daytime
showers and storms during the afternoon/evening hours over land
zones and the morning hours coastal/marine areas through Monday,
and potentially into midweek.

Highs will be in the lower to middle 90s today, and range from 88
to 93 degrees Friday and Saturday before climbing back into the
lower to middle 90s on Sunday. Daytime heat index values of
100-105 are expected through the remainder of the week, trending
to 105 to 110 degrees early next week. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals early this morning.
We`ll see another round of SCT TSRA/SHRA this afternoon, primarily
from 18-23Z with greater confidence for KMOB/KBFM with best timed
PROB30`s were introduced. Impacts will be brief/limited with
periodic lower VIS/CIGs from heavy rain. Otherwise, KJKA and KPNS,
confidence is too low to mention but will monitor. Quiet tonight,
but will monitor coastal TSRA/SHRA after midnight that could
impact KPNS and KJKA daybreak tomorrow. KLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow pattern is expected
through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, with
offshore winds expected at night and onshore winds during the day.
Rain chances will also increase over the coming days, especially
on Friday. A few waterspouts will be possible each morning. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      93  74  89  73 /  30  30  90  30
Pensacola   91  77  88  77 /  10  40  70  30
Destin      91  77  88  78 /  30  30  70  30
Evergreen   96  73  93  71 /  10  10  60  30
Waynesboro  97  74  94  73 /  30  10  70  30
Camden      96  75  93  73 /   0  10  60  20
Crestview   94  73  90  72 /  10  20  70  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$