576
FXUS64 KMOB 060435
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1135 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

 - There is the potential for strong to severe storms and heavy
   rainfall late Wednesday into Thursday.

 - The risk for strong rip currents increases midweek, with a
   Moderate risk of rip currents anticipated from Wednesday night
   through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

A large positively tilted upper trof over the northern Plains to
4 Corners region takes on a meridional orientation while
progressing into the eastern states through Thursday.
Interestingly, this system is now indicated to not absorb a cut-
off upper low drifting across the Baja region which in turn
allows for the upper trof to be a bit quicker with its eastward
progression. In response to this pattern, a surface low passes off
to the north and brings a cold front through the forecast area
late Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. In response to a
series of shortwaves moving across the region and the approaching
front, convection advances into the forecast area Wednesday
afternoon mainly across interior southeast Mississippi and
interior southwest Alabama. One uncertainty with this issuance is
just how quickly the convection increases across interior
portions of the forecast area Wednesday evening, which could then
progress southward across the remainder of the area more quickly
than currently forecast, moving offshore Thursday morning. In
addition, the CAMs are indicating rainfall totals of 2-5 inches
(with locally higher amounts possibly to 8 inches) mainly across
interior areas through Thursday morning which portends a risk of
flash flooding. This all depends on how this event will play out,
so will need to see if continuity develops for this potential
heavy rainfall. Sufficient CAPE and shear will also be present to
support strong to potentially severe storm development Wednesday
night along and west of I-65, and also along/south of the outflow
boundary/frontal boundary on Thursday.

The frontal boundary is anticipated to return back to near the
coast on Friday, but there`s uncertainty with whether or not the
front lifts off to the north or rather lingers near the coast at
least through Saturday before dissipating. A series of shortwaves
meanwhile move across the region and have opted for chance to
likely pops both days. Another surface low meanwhile develops over
the southern Plains and is expected to lift well off to the
north, bringing a cold front through the forecast area Sunday
night. With a series of shortwaves continuing to move across the
region along with the frontal passage, have gone with likely pops
for Sunday then chance pops follow for Monday. Dry conditions are
then expected for Monday night through Wednesday. A low risk of
rip currents is expected for tonight and Wednesday, then a
moderate risk follows for Wednesday night through Saturday. A low
risk of rip currents is anticipated for Sunday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR conditions will be followed by a predominately MVFR ceiling
developing over the area late tonight, with patchy fog possible.
Conditions improve to MVFR/VFR on Wednesday with scattered to
numerous showers and storms developing mainly west of I-65 in the
afternoon. Southerly winds 5-10 knots diminish to 5 knots or less
this evening, then a southwest to south flow around 10 knots
develops on Wednesday. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

A cold front sags south across the forecast area Thursday,
stalling along the coast Thursday night. Light to occasionally
moderate onshore flow ahead of the front will become more variable
for Thursday night into Friday. Another approaching upper system
brings light to moderate onshore flow back to the area for the
beginning of the weekend.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      65  83  72  82 /   0  40  40  80
Pensacola   69  82  73  82 /   0  20  20  70
Destin      69  80  72  81 /   0  10  20  60
Evergreen   60  86  69  81 /   0  30  70  90
Waynesboro  63  83  68  79 /  10  70  90  60
Camden      62  84  68  78 /   0  60  90  70
Crestview   62  87  70  84 /   0  20  20  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$