196
FXUS64 KMOB 241200
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
700 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 651 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

  - High risk of rip currents continues through this afternoon for
    coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

  - Heat builds through the weekend and into early next week with
    some locations nearing or breaking daily record highs. Heat
    Advisories or Excessive Heat Warnings will likely be necessary
    for portions of the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 651 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

No significant changes needed to the forecast this morning as it
remains on track.

Light, patchy fog has briefly settled into a few spots across
south-central Alabama and northwest Florida this morning. There
is not an overwhelming signal that dense fog will be an issue for
tomorrow morning, however, there could be some light, patchy fog
again right around sunrise in a few spots. 07/mb

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

There is a High Risk for rip currents that will continue today
for AL and FL beaches, through 6PM CT, with the risk lowering
going into the upcoming weekend.

Overall quiet tonight as what is left of Bertha has fully
departed now into south Texas and high pressure begins to build
into the area. Temperatures on track with no adjustments from NBM
needed through tomorrow morning. The nearby proximity of the
surface high and attendant tropospheric suppression over nearby
marine areas, coupled with strong differential land/water heating
and weak 0-1km mean winds will support the development of a well-
defined seabreeze tomorrow. Could become gusty at times over the
Emerald coast in the afternoon. Meanwhile aloft, we`re in control
of a broad ridge across generally the southern US, with a corridor
of enhanced/anomalously high PW remaining "attached" from
previously Bertha, northeast into the Tennessee Valley/Mid-Atlatic
region along a stationary sfc front. This corridor of enhanced
tropospheric moisture will bleed into northern areas later today,
supplying a bit better potential for diurnally-forced showers/
isolated storms as recent HRRR trends have been depicting. Not
anticipating anything impactful, but did introduce at least a
mention of an isolated shower/storm from 18-00Z along/north of the
US84 corridor across northern areas. Additionally, will monitor
the northward advancement of the seabreeze if that could locally
enhance sfc to low-level confluence and "squeeze" out an isolated
shower or two where boundary interactions+ sfc heating overcomes
the large- scale suppression at work. But overall, a nice day!

Quiet Friday night, then the ridge in control of the region begins
to nudge west some, and deepen centered over the four corners
region. What this does is attempts to place our local area on the
eastern periphery of the ridge, introducing northerly upper-level
flow within a broad weakness over the SE US. This will need to be
watched, as long-range guidance hints at a few PVA/impulses riding
the ridge from the NNW through the SSE. This has a tendency to
produce some type of upstream thunderstorm complex, whether it
remains messy or cold pools to develop something more organized
that surges south into the northern Gulf remains to be seen, but
will all depend on how strong/numerous upstream convection can
become. Experience has shown northerly flow can throw some
surprises in some gusty strong, to isolated severe thunderstorms
as entrainment supports strong downward transport. This risk would
be even more realized if any complex can become more organized,
but that is low confidence for now. The NBM did jump up with PoPs
from the latest 01Z run compared to the 13Z with the last forecast
package during the day on Thursday. This is as CAMs are coming
into somewhat better agreement in coverage potential, again, just
will need to watch if it can become organized into some outflow-
dominant complex that surges south. No adjustments needed here as
guidance appears meteorologically plausible in this type of
pattern.

Sunday into next week the main story focuses on the building heat.
Took some time here to look closely at guidance, particularly
cluster analysis and ECMWF/NAEFS shift-of-tails and EFI. Without
getting too in the weeds (but don`t mind me, I still will), there
are some interesting nudgers into this being a pretty notable
period of what could be the hottest temperatures we`ve seen so far
this summer for some areas. EFI/Shift-Of-Tails from the ECMWF
hints at the most positive/anomalous MaxT potential (namely
Tuesday) to support greater risk of highs reaching near, or
perhaps surpassing record highs in a few locations. Took a glance
at records, and they vary, but be aware what we have in the
forecast currently does break a few station records (most of them
in the upper 90`s to lower 100`s). The corridor of hottest
temperatures will likely be across MS but will bleed into western
AL counties/FL Panhandle where several lower 100`s could very
well be possible early to middle parts of next week (especially
MS). Cluster analysis remains rather persistent amongst CMC, EPS
and GEFS ensembles in regards to the ridge strength/position, so
overall confidence of a distinct period of excessive temperatures
continues to increase.

Now as far as the excessive heat risk with dangerous heat indices,
first and foremost, yes, it will be very hot with heat indices
in the 108-112+ range. However, without getting too cute, the NBM
is likely not taking into account the degree of daily afternoon
PBL mixing, meaning forecast dewpoints could be a tad too high
each day and what we realize could be a few degrees lower each
afternoon, revealing more realistic forecast max heat indices. I
don`t want to focus too much on this as it does not, and should
not take away from the impacts expected. Whether we hit heat
indices of 110 or 115, it doesn`t matter, this type of heat will
be dangerous for those outdoors for extended periods. We will
continue to increase heat precautionary messaging in the coming
days so the public is aware, and prepares accordingly.

Will make a small note about mid/late-week, as we begin to see
the SE US weakness expand more in size, allowing for stronger NW
flow to build into the region. This could distinctly aid in more
numerous, mainly afternoon/evening shower/storm risks each day,
with some potential waves of a few strong/isolated severe at
times. Outside of any shower/storm activity, it`ll still be hot
with oppressive heat expected to continue but could back down some
late-week. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

VFR conditions prevail at the terminals through the TAF cycle.
Winds turn southerly to south-southwesterly by this afternoon with
a slight uptick in the winds to around 10 knots. Light and
variable winds expected after sunset. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Nearby high pressure will continue to promote mainly light onshore
flow today and Saturday, but a more established westerly, moderate
flow builds early next-week ranging 10-15kts at times. Waves/seas
will remain light to calm through the forecast period. KLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      95  74  97  76 /   0   0  30  10
Pensacola   93  77  95  79 /   0   0  30  10
Destin      92  79  93  80 /   0   0  30  10
Evergreen   94  73  93  72 /  10  10  30  20
Waynesboro  96  75  96  75 /  10  10  20  10
Camden      91  75  91  75 /  20  20  30  20
Crestview   97  74  97  75 /   0  10  40  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$