Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
465 FXUS64 KMOB 162313 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 613 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 608 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Dry and warm conditions will persist through Saturday, with increasing rain chances for Sunday morning. Dry conditions return for next week, along with cooler temperatures. - The risk of life-threatening rip currents will increase by Friday evening, with a high risk expected on Saturday and Sunday. Before heading to beach, check the local conditions and follow the posted beach warning flags. - Very dry conditions on top of an ongoing and expanding drought may lead to fire weather concerns for next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The axis of an amplified upper ridge, currently extending from the northern Gulf up through the north central US, will push to the east over the next few days. This is in response to an upper- level trough that will dig southeastward across the CONUS over the weekend. This trough should push to the east of the local region by Sunday morning, helping to establish a northwesterly flow pattern aloft in its wake for the start of next week. At the surface, an associated cold front will push through the area on Sunday. Showers and storms (potentially in the form of an MCS) will likely be ongoing upstream over the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Saturday. As the front and associated MCS approaches our area Saturday night, most guidance suggests that the best forcing should begin to lift away from the region. Also factoring in meager downstream instability due to the overnight timing and poor lapse rates, the most likely scenario is for the MCS to weaken prior reaching our northwestern counties. It should be noted that the 00z and 06z ensemble runs of the ECMWF did suggest a slightly deeper trough which could help to maintain the MCS just a bit longer for it to possibly reach our CWA. If this solution were to pan out, then the primary concern would be gusty winds for areas north of Highway 84 and west of I-65 during the early morning hours on Sunday. At this time, the potential for this is rather low. Rain chances quickly decrease by late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon as a much drier airmass quickly advects in behind the cold front. We remain dry through Monday night before a stronger cold front passes through on Tuesday. With a lack of any meaningful moisture return, only a few isolated showers are possible as this second front moves through. We dry out once again for midweek as high pressure builds in to our north. Highs will remain very warm for this time of year through Sunday, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s. After the first front passes through, highs on Monday and Tuesday will be knocked down by a couple degrees; ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Highs lower again for Wednesday and Thursday after the second front passes, with temperatures generally topping out in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will follow a similar pattern. Lows will remain mild through Saturday night, with temperatures only dropping into the 60s. After the first front, lows decrease into the 50s inland and low 60s along the coast for Sunday and Monday nights. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights decrease even further after the second front, with some interior areas dropping into the mid to upper 40s. The rip current risk remains low through Friday afternoon, increasing to a moderate risk Friday evening. A High Risk of rip currents follow for this weekend, lowering back down to moderate by Monday. Fire weather note: D1 to D2 drought continues to expand across much of the local region. Although scattered showers and storms are expected Sunday morning, overall rainfall totals are expected to remain below a half inch, offering little relief. After the Sunday and Tuesday fronts pass through, guidance indicates that much drier air will push in, likely bringing afternoon humidity values down to below 30 percent for several days next week (Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday). Although winds appear to remain rather weak, the dry conditions on top of the worsening drought conditions could lead to fire-related concerns next week. /96 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions this evening will be followed by patchy fog, potentially thick in some spots, developing late tonight over the southern portion of the area. The fog dissipates by mid Friday morning leaving VFR conditions. Winds become calm or light and variable this evening, then a southeasterly flow near 10 knots develops on Friday. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A light southerly to southeasterly flow continues through tonight, with winds gradually increasing on Friday and Saturday, along with building seas. Winds shift to a light to moderate southwesterly flow on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Moderate offshore flow develops Sunday evening in the wake of the cold front and becomes onshore once again as we head into early next week. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 63 85 66 84 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 68 83 70 83 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 69 82 69 82 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 59 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 59 87 63 86 / 0 0 0 10 Camden 60 88 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 60 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$