281
FXUS64 KMOB 261912
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
212 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Slightly drier conditions will prevail this afternoon as shortwave
ridging slowly moves out of the area. Looking at visible
satellite, a small remnant mesoscale convective system (MCV) left
over from storms in Georgia last night is slowly drifting
southwest. This MCV will likely provide enough ascent and low
level convergence to overcome some of the subsidence and result
in some scattered storms this afternoon. Coverage should be less
than the last few days and most areas should remain drier today.
Enjoy it because by Friday we will be back to our regularly
scheduled soggy summertime.

Sweet summertime rolls on through the week as we continue a
rather soggy start to summer. We will remain squished between an
upper low over Florida and upper level ridging across to our west.
This will keep us in a rather active pattern for the foreseeable
future. Rain chances look to increase each day through the weekend
and into next week as a series of shortwaves progress across the
great lakes. Moisture will increase with increasingly
southwesterly flow. With PWATS climbing to above 2 inches and
staying above 2 inches through the foreseeable future, expect
storms to be frequent each afternoon. Like most summertime storms,
we will have to keep an eye out for some strong wind gusts each
afternoon. The bigger concern will likely be heavy rainfall and
increased chances for flash flooding. With much of the area
running a few inches above normal for the month and plenty more
rain to come, grounds will eventually not be able to handle much
more rain. As a result, flash flooding risks could increase next
week. NBM 48 hour QPF means for Monday through Thursday run around
2 to 3 inches along the coast with the 90th percentile around 4-6
inches. While this doesn`t sound like much, these amounts at days
4-6 are rather significant and certainly lean towards some
concerns. The one good thing about the rain is that temperatures
will be more mild and as a result we will not be dealing with any
heat related products. BB-8

 &&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VFR conditions should continue throughout the period with light
east-southeasterly winds. Isolated storms will be possible later
this afternoon along the I-10 corridor; however, coverage should
be limited. VFR conditions will continue overnight with light and
variable winds. BB-8

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Light and variable winds will continue through the weekend before
increasing to a light to moderate westerly wind by early next
week. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage through
the weekend and into next week. No other hazards are expected in
the marine zones.

BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  91  73  90  73  91  73  89 /  40  70  20  70  30  70  40  80
Pensacola   74  88  75  89  76  91  75  90 /  40  60  30  70  40  80  50  90
Destin      77  90  78  91  78  91  78  91 /  40  60  40  70  40  80  60  80
Evergreen   69  92  70  91  70  92  71  91 /  30  70  20  70  20  70  30  80
Waynesboro  69  92  70  91  71  91  71  90 /  30  70  10  60  10  60  20  70
Camden      70  91  71  90  71  90  72  89 /  30  60  20  60  20  60  30  80
Crestview   69  91  71  91  71  92  71  91 /  30  70  30  90  30  90  40  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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