481
FXUS64 KMOB 071127
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
627 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Most of the earlier convection has dwindled for the evening with the
exception of a small band of light to moderate showers quickly
traversing westward across the coastal counties as of 05z. Most of
the high-res guidance has been hinting at showers and storms flaring
up over the Gulf and near the coastline throughout the overnight and
early morning hours. We don`t expect much out of this overnight
round as it`s moving at a fast pace - just a good soaking. As we
roll toward the afternoon hours, some of the high-res guidance
lights up across parts of southeast MS and southwest AL between 19-
23z, especially for locations west of I-65. The 3-hr HREF PMMs
highlight the aforementioned areas with 2+ inches of rain by the
late afternoon hours. Similar to the past few days, not everywhere
in our area will see rain today, it will be hit or miss, but expect
a good downpour if you do get rain today.

Forcing for showers and storms remains minimal again on Wednesday as
the ridge aloft continues to slide westward across the Gulf. Expect
isolated coverage on Wednesday afternoon area-wide. As the ridge
continues to backbuild westward, the door opens for a shortwave to
dive southward toward the region late in the week as flow aloft
turns northwesterly. A weak front will slide across the region late
in the week with a surge of much drier air filtering into the area
later in the weekend.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains HIGH through tonight,
however, there are indications in the rip current MOS guidance that
we should start to see a steady fall after sunset this evening. The
risk remains MODERATE Wednesday and Thursday for coastal Alabama and
northwest Florida beaches. MOS guidance indicates a sharp increase
in the rip current probabilities Thursday night into Friday with
probabilities indicating a solid HIGH risk on Friday. Conditions
should quickly subside through the day on Saturday and into Sunday.
07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

IFR/MVFR ceilings near the coast and over portions of southeast
Mississippi and further inland across southwest Alabama improve to
predominately VFR conditions by midday, with VFR conditions
meanwhile prevailing over the remainder of the area. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms are expected to develop across the
area today then taper off by the early evening. IFR/MVFR
conditions accompany the stronger storms. Easterly winds 5-10
knots become southeasterly this morning, then diminish by this
evening. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Exercise caution conditions expected over the offshore waters
through late this morning. No impact expected other than locally
higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms late Tuesday
and Wednesday. Advisory level conditions are possible late in the
week as a front slides across the Gulf. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      85  70  87  68  86  64  78  61 /  50  20  20  10  10  10   0   0
Pensacola   85  73  87  71  86  66  80  64 /  30  10  20  10  20  10   0   0
Destin      85  73  87  72  86  66  81  64 /  20  10  10  10  20  10   0   0
Evergreen   89  68  89  65  86  59  80  54 /  30  20  20  10  20  10   0   0
Waynesboro  85  68  85  62  83  61  77  57 /  40  20  20   0  10   0   0   0
Camden      87  68  87  64  81  59  76  56 /  30  30  20  10  10  10   0   0
Crestview   87  69  89  67  86  61  80  57 /  20  10  20  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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