371
FXUS64 KMOB 111146
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
646 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

An inverted low- to mid-level trough is located over the eastern
Gulf this morning. Over the next 48 hours, this trough will slowly
lift to the northwest, likely passing overhead by late tonight
into Tuesday, and eventually weakening and exiting the region by
Wednesday. As it moves into the local region, it will help to
advect a plume of deep tropical moisture northward (PWATs increase
to nearly 2.5 inches). This will allow for scattered to numerous
(locally widespread) showers and storms to develop across the area
through Wednesday. Activity should generally follow a typical
diurnal pattern, where the bulk of the storm coverage occurs
during the afternoon, however, with the close proximity of the
trough and the rich moisture in place, would not be surprised to
see storms linger through the night tonight. At this point, the
primary concern with these storms is the potential for very heavy
rainfall. Given the very moist airmass in place, these storms will
likely be efficient rainfall producers, and if storms manage to
train over the same locations, we could see some localized flash
flooding concerns especially over urban and low-lying areas. WPC`s
latest ERO currently has D2 slight for the western Florida
Panhandle. Additionally, although the overall severe risk is low,
cannot rule out a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty
downburst winds due to wet microburst processes.

Once this inverted trough exits the region on Wednesday, upper
ridging will build in across the northern Gulf and will linger for
the remainder of the week and into Saturday. Although moisture
values remain high, subsidence from the ridge should help to bring
rain chances back down to what we typically see in the summer:
scattered coverage in the afternoon with PoPs generally topping out
in the 30-50% range. By Sunday and into Monday, the ridge should
move into the western Gulf, allowing for the upper-level flow
pattern aloft to turn more northwesterly. As previous shifts
mentioned, in this pattern we will have to monitor upstream storms
to see how they evolve. If they are able to cluster together and
move into the area, they could pose a strong wind/small hail risk.
Just something we will keep an eye on over the next few days.

With the increase in rain coverage, highs through Wednesday will
generally remain in the mid to upper 80s to around 90. By Thursday
and into the weekend, highs will increase into the low to mid 90s as
ridging builds in. At this point, heat indices are forecast to
remain just below Heat Advisory criteria, however we will monitor
trends over the coming days. A Low Risk of rip currents will be in
place for today, increasing to a Moderate Risk on Tuesday due to an
increase in onshore winds. The rip current risk drops back to low by
Wednesday and for the remainder of the week. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Generally VFR conditions persist through the TAF cycle. Ceilings
briefly lowered to MVFR/IFR ranges over parts of the area this
morning with brief impacts to the BFM terminal. Easterly winds
will turn southeasterly this afternoon. Showers and storms are
possible along the coast late this afternoon with convective
coverage increasing by the early evening hours area-wide. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

A light to moderate easterly flow today will turn more
southerly by tonight. This general pattern will continue through
Wednesday before becoming more light and variable by late week. No
impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      90  74  86  74  89  75  91  75 /  60  60  80  20  70  10  50  10
Pensacola   89  76  86  78  90  78  91  78 /  70  70  70  20  50  10  30  10
Destin      88  77  88  79  90  79  90  79 /  80  70  80  20  40  10  30  10
Evergreen   91  73  88  72  91  72  92  73 /  60  50  80  20  60  10  50  10
Waynesboro  90  73  86  71  90  72  92  73 /  30  30  80  20  80  10  50  10
Camden      89  74  86  72  89  73  91  73 /  40  40  80  20  60  20  40  10
Crestview   89  74  88  74  90  74  92  74 /  80  60  80  20  60  10  50  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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