586
FXUS64 KMOB 091812
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
112 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

 - Increasing concern for heat stress late this week and into the
   weekend as hot and humid conditions return.

 - Risk for rip currents increases to MODERATE this weekend for the
   northwest Florida beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Through Thursday...a deep upper level shortwave trough currently
just east of the Mississippi River swings east around the north side
of upper level high pressure situated over the Gulf, before reaching
the East Coast by Tuesday evening. The upper high shifts west to
over the Southern Plains into Wednesday, then begins to build east
over the Southeast as the upper trough continues to move east off the
coast. Additional shortwave energy passed north or south of the
forecast area in response through mid week, keeping any convection
north or south of the forecast area, except for isolated storms over
the eastern border of the forecast area Tuesday. Temperatures see a
slow rise though mid week, with high temperatures topping out in the
low to mid 90s by Thursday. Heat indices remain generally 100 or
below, as drier air moves over the forecast area through the period.
Low temperatures remain steady, bottoming out in the low to mid 70s.
Boundary layer moisture remains high enough, though, that when
combined with enough mixing, patchy overnight fog formation is
possible.

Friday through Monday, shortwave energy passing north of the upper
ridge shifts it south, allowing increasing moisture to move back
over the forecast area, along with increasing influence of the
shortwave energy. Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage
through the weekend in response. Temperatures remain above seasonal
norms Friday through the weekend. When combined with the increase in
moisture levels, Heat Indices rising into the 100-106 degree range
are expected though the weekend.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, consistent
onshore flow continues through the forecast, but weakens with the
shifting upper pattern. The tidal range also decreases through the
week, with a low risk expected. By the end of the week, the tidal
range begins to increase, bringing a Moderate Risk back to the
forecast area by the coming weekend, mainly for beaches in the
western Florida Panhandle.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VFR conditions prevail through much of the period. Brief MVFR/IFR
conditions possible in patchy fog overnight. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

A light to occasionally moderate easterly to southeasterly flow
persists through Wednesday. A southeasterly to southerly flow on
Thursday turns southwesterly to westerly for Friday through the
weekend. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  90  71  90 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   75  90  75  89 /   0  10   0   0
Destin      75  89  76  88 /   0  10   0   0
Evergreen   71  93  71  94 /  10  10  10   0
Waynesboro  71  94  71  93 /  10   0   0   0
Camden      72  92  72  92 /  10  10  10   0
Crestview   70  94  71  93 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$