421
FXUS64 KMOB 230538
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1138 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

VFR ceilings and visibilities will prevail through mid-morning
Sunday, followed by MVFR and IFR ceilings and visibilities through
late Sunday afternoon as a large area of rain spreads over the
region. Light north to northeast winds will continue through the
period. /22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025/

.New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 401 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

An upper level low pressure system moving east into western Texas
this afternoon and across Texas tonight and will then continue to
move rather quickly eastward across our area Sunday and Sunday
night. This, combined with some additional shortwave energy
digging into the upper to the west Texas will help to induce
surface low pressure late tonight along the upper Texas coast
which will then move east across the northern Gulf Sunday and
Sunday night. Deep moisture will advect northeastward across the
forecast area to the north and east of the surface low, supporting
the development of overrunning rainfall by early Sunday morning
across western portions of our forecast area which will then
spread east during the Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening hours.
After coord with adjacent offices and looking over the MOS output
as well as the 12z deterministic model runs, decided to go a
little higher with regard to PoPs than current NBM output. PoPs
will be trending up from west to east across the area Sunday
afternoon and evening, with highest PoPs across the southeastern
portions of the area during the evening hours on Sunday, then
slightly tapering off from west to east after midnight Sunday
night (although still remaining likely across most of the southern
half of the forecast area). Limited instability should keep the
potential for any thunder low and mainly well offshore, so no
strong to severe storms are expected, and for now rainfall totals
will be generally light (with highest totals generally around one
inch at any given location, but likely somewhat less than that
over the northern half of the forecast area). As such, not
expecting any significant flash flooding impacts, although at
least one area river, the Tombigbee, remains at minor flood stage.
Several other rivers are at Action Stage, and depending on where
some of the heavier rain may fall, it is possible a few of those
could rise to near minor flooding once again. Nothing significant,
but something we will continue to monitor.

Lows tonight will also be several degrees warmer than last night,
ranging from around 30 over far northern locations to the low to
mid 40s along the coast. On Sunday, highs will be somewhat
influenced by widespread clouds and rain, and will range from the
upper 40s to lower 50s over western portions of the forecast area
and in the mid to upper 50s over eastern and coastal portions of
the forecast area. Lows Sunday night will range from the mid to
upper 30s (even a few low 40s) over interior locations, mid to
upper 40s closer to and along the coast. DS/12

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 401 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

The rain should be a distant memory by the middle to latter part
of Monday morning. A shortwave trough continues to pivot across
the region through the day on Monday, eventually allowing
northerly to northwesterly flow aloft to prevail overhead through
at least Tuesday. Meanwhile a surface high builds into the region
through mid- week. The area remains dry through Wednesday with a
warming trend in the temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will top out
in the mid to low 70s.

As we roll deeper into the week, another shortwave trough pivots
across the Midwest and Mid-South but gets less amplified in the
zonal flow aloft by the time it swings into the Deep South. The
cold front associated with this trough will slide into the area on
Thursday. Moisture return ahead of this front will likely be just
enough to spark rain showers across a portion of the area on
Thursday, but at this point, the rain does not look to be
widespread. The area dries out with a return of mild temperatures
as we roll into the weekend as high pressure dominates the
forecast. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Light offshore flow will persist across the marine area tonight as
surface high pressure remains the dominant weather feature. A low
pressure system forming off the Upper Texas coast by Sunday
morning will move eastward across the northern Gulf coast with
increasing east to northeast winds and building seas. For now it
appears that winds and seas will remain just below SCEC criteria
and well below SCA criteria. The low pressure system will move
east by Monday with high pressure building back over the region
with a return light offshore flow for the first part of next week.
DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      40  51  43  65  42  72  47  74 /  30  90  70  10   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   44  56  47  66  47  71  50  71 /  10  80  80  10   0   0   0   0
Destin      45  59  49  67  50  71  52  71 /   0  80 100  10   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   34  54  39  67  39  74  43  77 /   0  70  70   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  33  48  37  63  38  72  43  76 /  20  80  50   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      30  52  37  64  37  71  42  75 /   0  60  60   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   36  57  44  69  41  74  44  76 /   0  80 100  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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