717
FXUS64 KMOB 161124
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
624 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Heat Advisory is in effect for Sunday afternoon into the evening
  for high heat indices up to 112. Additional heat advisories will
  likely be needed for the beginning of the week.

- A Low risk of rip currents continues through the remainder of
  the weekend, with a Moderate risk of rip currents returning to
  area beaches on Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Current forecast on track, with no updates planned.
/16

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The ridge continues over the area bringing very hot conditions.
The center of the upper high is to the west and will continue to
retrograde towards the Plains and Desert Southwest through the
upcoming week putting us under generally pretty weak northerly to
northwesterly upper flow. The area also has decent moisture with
near/just above normal PWATs for this time of year with values of
1.9-2.1" through the end of the upcoming week.

With the upper high moving west, this gives for less subsidence over
the area. A surface high pressure out over the Gulf provides light
westerly to northwesterly flow through morning before the seabreeze
advances inland through the afternoon and this general surface
pattern lasts through most of the week. Isolated to scattered storms
are expected each afternoon over much of the area into this week
with some isolated storms over marine areas most mornings. Most of
the convection will be driven by the sea breeze and any resultant
outflow boundaries in the afternoon. We have some decently weak bulk
shear but plenty of moisture and instability, so any showers and
thunderstorms that get organized enough will have the potential for
strong winds in addition to heavy rainfall and lightning.

The main impact through the period is the heat. A Heat Advisory is
in effect for the entire area 11AM-8PM on Sunday for heat index
values up to 112. The heat headlines will most likely last through
at least mid week. Daily high temperatures are in the mid to upper
90s for most inland areas and possibly reaching 100, especially in
our southeast Mississippi counties. Afternoon dewpoints will be
generally in the low to mid 70s inland and mid to upper 70s along
the coast. This brings heat indices up to the 105-112 range with
some isolated areas briefly reaching up to 115, so it is not out of
the question that we could have Excessive Heat watch or warning at
some point this upcoming week. There continues be little overnight
relief with low temperatures through mid week only reaching down to
the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to near 80 along the coast.
Anybody outdoors should drink plenty of water, take breaks in A/C
when possible, and monitor for signs of heat illness.

The ridge does start breaking down towards the end of the week and
into next weekend allowing the trough to move further down towards
the area. This could help break the daily heat advisory pattern and
potentially bring more organized convection through the area.

...BEACH FORECAST...

The rip current risk will be low through the remainder of the
weekend. Onshore flow ramps up the beginning of this week and will
increase the rip current risk to a moderate for all area beaches in
Florida and Alabama on Monday. Outside of any storms, surf heights
remain generally 1-2 feet through the end of the week.

SS/97

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Isolated to
scattered afternoon rainshowers and thunderstorms may bring mid
level MVFR conditions as a seabreeze develops along the coast and
moves inland.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southwest to westerly flow
pattern persists across the marine waters into the coming week. A
light to moderate westerly flow becoming established around the
middle of next week. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and
storms can be expected each morning with locally higher seas and
winds near storms. No impacts expected other than locally higher
winds and seas possible near thunderstorms.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      97  77  97  77 /  30  10  30  20
Pensacola   94  81  95  81 /  40  10  30  20
Destin      91  82  92  82 /  40  10  30  20
Evergreen   99  77  99  76 /  20   0  40  30
Waynesboro 100  77 101  73 /  10   0  40  20
Camden      99  77  98  75 /  10   0  30  20
Crestview   96  77  98  77 /  40  10  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$