962
FXUS64 KMOB 070234
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
934 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Tonight Through Saturday Night...

The period opens with an upper level ridge of high pressure centered
from the central Gulf, westward across the Rio Grande with an upper
trof sliding east off the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the surface, high
pressure over the central FL Peninsula was nosing westward and holds
in this position, resulting in a warm, southwest flow to open up the
weekend. Deep environmental moisture over the central Gulf coast
(PWATs 1.6 to 1.8") persists and in combination with daytime
instability, isolated to scattered showers and storms to be expected
the remainder of the day. A look at the high resolution CAM`s,
suggests we will be in a diurnal convective mode with any lingering
daytime activity carrying over into evening will begin to
weaken/dissipate. Late in the night, expect to see development off
the coast and expect the same Saturday night. May have to watch for
waterspouts near the coast considering the favorable environment. As
the environment destabilizes Saturday and considering the deep layer
and sufficient moisture profile, a return to slight chance to chance
PoPs is expected through the course of the day over land areas. At
the present time, the position of the Gulf upper ridge looks to
mostly shield the forecast area from organized convection. The more
active westerlies looks to be to our north where a series of mid-
level impulses and the more focused ascent in the form of strong to
perhaps severe convective complexes translate eastward over the
Lower MS River Valley on Saturday. In this pattern, the better risk
of severe storms is focused more from the Red River Valley of
Texas/Oklahoma, eastward into the Carolinas. The southern extent of
a slight risk of severe storms does skirt the far northern zones
along and north of a line from Butler to Greenville AL Saturday.
From there, a marginal risk of severe storms extends south to the I-
10 corridor.

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected as we start the weekend.
/10

Sunday Through Thursday...

The active, unsettled pattern returns next week.

Multiple waves of showers and storms are expected throughout the
period, especially Monday through Thursday. The upper level ridge
stretching across Mexico and into the Gulf this weekend will retreat
(somewhat) next week as a broad upper level trough slides across
much of the eastern half of the CONUS. Ridging should remain in
control of most of the local area on Sunday, which should result in
one more day with a diurnal convective pattern. Rain chances on
Sunday afternoon will remain highest further inland where there will
be less of an influence from the ridge. Numerous shortwaves pivot
through the region in the westerly to northwesterly flow aloft as we
roll through both Monday and Tuesday next week. While the trough
begins to lift out of the region on Wednesday, a potent shortwave
over Texas will begin to pivot into the Plains later in the week.
Meanwhile, the surface high over the western Atlantic continues to
extend into the Southeast and the eastern Gulf this weekend through
next week. Southwesterly to westerly flow at the surface will
continue to allow plenty of moisture to flow into the area in this
pattern. Rain chances increase next week with numerous showers and
storms each day. Rain chances remain high through the evening and
overnight hours at times, but pinpointing exactly which days is
difficult at this point given the parade of shortwaves sliding
across the area. We will be able to refine the rain chances as we
get closer in time. High POPs and increased cloud cover will lead to
slightly cooler daytime high temperatures Monday through Wednesday.
At this point, we are not overly concerned with a threat for severe
storms next week. That being said, we will need to monitor for any
clusters of storms (MCSs) diving out of the Plains early next week
when we`re still in northwest flow aloft.

Beach Forecast - The rip current risk remains MODERATE through
Tuesday. The latest rip current probability guidance continues to
trend downward as we roll into the middle to latter part of next
week, so a LOW risk is possible Wednesday onward. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 929 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
A few isolated showers may develop along the coast Saturday
morning, followed by the development of scattered showers and storms
during the afternoon, primarily over interior locations. Expect
brief reductions in visibility and ceilings in some of the heavier
activity. Light southwesterly winds will continue through the
period. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A light to moderate southwesterly flow will persist through early
next week, and there will be an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
activity early next week. Overall, low impactful weather is
anticipated for small craft operators outside of any storms where
winds and seas will be locally higher. May have to also watch for
some isolated AM waterspouts over the weekend. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  92  75  93  73  90  73  88 /  10  20   0  50  60  70  70  80
Pensacola   78  90  79  91  77  88  77  88 /  10  40  10  50  70  70  70  70
Destin      79  90  80  90  78  88  78  88 /  20  40  20  50  70  70  70  70
Evergreen   73  94  74  93  71  89  70  88 /  10  40  10  70  70  80  70  90
Waynesboro  73  93  72  91  70  88  69  85 /  10  20  10  70  60  80  70  80
Camden      73  92  74  88  70  85  68  83 /  10  30  30  80  60  80  70  80
Crestview   73  93  74  93  72  90  72  89 /  10  50  10  70  70  80  70  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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