689
FXUS64 KMOB 240541
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1241 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected
  each afternoon this week, particularly across the southern half
  of the area. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds,
  heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

- Hot conditions continue, with heat indices topping out at around
  102-107 degrees each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

A much more active weather pattern is expected this week as our
local area remains underneath a northwesterly flow pattern aloft.
This flow is the result of a building ridge over the Rockies and
longwave troughing over the Great Lakes region. Over the coming
days, several embedded shortwaves are expected to push through
this flow and pass overhead, helping to provide large scale ascent
to the local region. Pairing this with PWATs of around 2 inches
and a highly unstable environment due to strong diurnal heating,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop each day this week, mainly during the afternoon and into
the evening hours.

Latest CAMs suggest that this coming afternoon/evening may be one of
the more active days this week as a rather stout shortwave pushes
into the local area. Although storms over our area may initially
develop along the sea breeze boundary by the coast and spread via
outflow boundaries, guidance is also suggesting that upstream
storms, sparked by the shortwave aloft, may organize into an MCS and
push southeastward throughout the day. Although a bit uncertain as
to how much of the local area will be impacted by this MCS,
confidence is higher for locations west of the Tombigbee River at
this time. Although any storm that develops today will be capable of
producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall, the
greatest threat for strong to severe weather will come with this
MCS. Right now guidance has this MCS entering our Mississippi
counties by as early as 2PM and pushing off the Alabama coast by
or before 8PM. Damaging winds will be the greatest hazard from
this complex. Heavy rainfall which could lead to localized
flooding is also a concern. Latest HREF 24hr LPMMs suggest 3-5
inches of rain over portions of southeast Mississippi and
southwest Alabama, along with localized maximums of around 5-7
inches. If storms can train over the same areas for a long period
of time, then these values may become realized. Rain chances
quickly diminish this evening in the wake of the MCS.

As stated before, daily chances for scattered to numerous showers
and storms are expected throughout the remainder of the week.
Highest coverage looks to be over our coastal counties thanks to
development along the sea breeze boundary. Each day comes with the
risk of gusty to locally damaging downburst winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding
concerns. Some guidance suggests that another MCS may travel
within the northwesterly flow and impact portions of the local
area midweek. If this were to happen, then similar to today,
damaging winds would be the primary impact. We will monitor trends
closely over the coming days.

With the increase in rain chances, high temperatures are expected to
trend back to seasonal norms. Highs in the low to mid 90s today
should decrease to the upper 80s to low 90s by midweek. Heat indices
throughout the period should generally remain just below Heat
Advisory criteria (around 102-107), although a few localized spots
of 108-110 degrees cannot be ruled out along the coast. Lows will
range from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast. A
Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through the week. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through The morning hours.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms should start to develop
across the area by the late morning/early afternoon hours. Expect
brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the
heavier activity. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

A light to occasionally moderate westerly flow pattern continues
through this week. Winds are expected to shift from southwesterly
each afternoon to northwesterly late each night. Isolated to
potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each
morning during next week with locally higher seas and winds near
storms. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      95  74  91  73 /  60  40  70  10
Pensacola   93  77  90  76 /  50  40  70  20
Destin      91  78  89  78 /  40  50  60  40
Evergreen   97  71  94  70 /  40  50  50  10
Waynesboro  97  73  93  72 /  50  40  60  10
Camden      95  72  92  71 /  30  40  30  10
Crestview   95  72  92  71 /  50  50  60  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$