221
FXUS64 KMOB 241715
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1215 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected
  each afternoon this week. Storms will be capable of producing
  gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

- Hot conditions continue, with heat indices topping out at around
  102-107 degrees each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Latest water vapor imagery shows a trough over the eastern CONUS,
with strong ridging over the west. This places the forecast area in
northwest flow aloft, keeping a relatively active pattern in place
through the next few days. Currently, an MCS that developed early
this morning is quickly surging southward, as a weak shortwave moves
around the base of the trough. Meanwhile, additional weak shortwaves
are likely to continue to traverse the area, with ample moisture in
place to help aid scattered thunderstorms throughout the day. One
thing we`ll have to watch is the trajectory of the current MCS and
the potential for outflows from these storms to linger into the
afternoon. This, combined with the afternoon seabreeze, will bring
more numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area by the end
of the day. Like in previous days, strong winds up to 60 mph and
locally heavy rain are possible in these storms.

This pattern will persist through much of the week, with northwest
flow aloft keeping scattered showers in the forecast through
Wednesday. Little in the way of surface forcing exists, and with
very little shear, expect disorganized thunderstorms during the
afternoon. As has been the case, any storm that does develop will be
capable of producing strong winds and heavy rain. Thursday will see
a greater coverage of thunderstorms as the trough amplifies and digs
southward and into the forecast area. The forcing associated with
this trough will be enough to generate numerous showers and
thunderstorms, with the highest chances during the afternoon as
daytime heating aids in convective initiation. The trough will
remain in place through Friday, with another day of numerous showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Model consensus diverges quite a
bit after Friday, with the GFS closing a low at the base of the
trough over the northern Gulf and the ECMWF bringing strong upper
ridging for the weekend.

In terms of temperatures through the period, it`s going to remain
hot. Highs will climb into the mid to upper 90s today and Tuesday,
with lows falling into the lower 70s. A greater coverage of clouds
and rain will keep highs in the lower 90s for the latter part of the
work week. /73

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through much of the
period. The exception will be this afternoon, as numerous storms
impact the region. Confidence is low on exact timing, so have
included a TEMPO group for all sites. Storms should diminish after
sunset. /73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  91  72  92 /  30  50  20  60
Pensacola   75  90  75  90 /  30  50  20  50
Destin      76  89  76  88 /  30  50  40  50
Evergreen   70  93  70  94 /  20  50  10  50
Waynesboro  72  93  70  95 /  20  30  10  50
Camden      71  93  71  93 /  10  20  10  30
Crestview   70  92  70  92 /  30  60  20  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$