346
FXUS64 KMOB 092332
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
532 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Drier air over the forecast area is bringing VFR CIGS, along with
more breaks to the cloud cover. Moist air will move over the area
Sunday, bringing an increase in rain shower coverage along with low
end MVFR CIGs, especially over areas closer to the coast. Easterly
winds around 10 knots will shift to southeast to southerly on Sunday.
/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

The upper ridge over the eastern CONUS will shift eastward as a
potent deep low pressure system over Nebraska lifts east-northeast
across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Low/mid southerly
to southwesterly flow will bring a higher level of moisture below
500mb back into the region, with anticipated precipitable water from
1.5" to 2.00". Shortwave impulses embedded within the southwesterly
aloft and the improving moisture quality will allow for an
increasing chance of rain showers late tonight, and especially
during the day Sunday into Sunday night. Lows tonight and Sunday
night will range in the mid to upper 60s over interior communities
and around 70 degrees to the lower 70s along the coast. Highs on
Sunday may trend downward slightly into the upper 70s to lower 80s
given the increased rain coverage.

A High Surf Advisory will remain in effect along the Alabama and
northwest Florida beaches where surf breakers up to around 5 feet
will persist through Sunday afternoon. The high rip current risk
will also continue along area beaches through the weekend and into
Monday and Monday night. /22

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 451 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Rain chances will persist as we start the upcoming work week, with
zonal flow aloft and tropical moisture filtering in at the surface.
This moisture, filtering northward from TS Rafael, will combine with
weak shortwaves aloft to keep scattered light rain through the day
Monday. The combination of cloud cover and rain will also keep
temperatures on the mild side, with highs climbing into the upper 70s
to lower 80s. As Rafael slowly meanders southward and towards Mexico
on Monday night, surface flow will become more northerly.
Additionally, upper ridging will begin to build to our west, with
its axis sliding into the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday. With the
northerly flow at the surface and aloft, drier air will take hold
and rain chances will quickly come to an end. This will leave dry
and seasonably warm conditions through much of Wednesday, as the
ridge moves through the area.

A trough will begin to dig into the Plains on Wednesday and quickly
shift eastward through the day. Winds will generally remain from the
east ahead of this trough, limiting the available moisture. Guidance
also differs quite a bit on the strength of the trough and the
development of a surface low near the area. Given the uncertainty
with the evolution of this trough, and how quickly moisture returns
to the region, will cap PoPs at around 20% for the Wednesday to
Wednesday night timeframe. Upper ridging will once again take a
brief hold on the weather pattern in the wake of the departing
trough on Thursday, bringing dry conditions back to the area on
Thursday and Friday. /73

MARINE...
Issued at 348 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

A moderate to occasionally strong easterly to southeasterly flow
continues through Sunday. Seas will remain elevated between 5-7
feet, and occasionally to around 8-9 feet through Sunday morning.
The Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect through Sunday
morning over the Gulf marine zones, mainly for hazardous seas. A
light to moderate southeasterly flow is expected on Monday with
the development of offshore flow by Tuesday. Seas gradually
subside by early next week. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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