256
FXUS64 KMOB 030503
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1203 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

The soggy pattern continues into next week. Moisture continues to
surge into the area as flow aloft turns onshore on Monday with a
trough dipping into the region. Flow aloft remains southwesterly
through most of the week as the trough meanders over the region,
essentially stuck between two ridges. PWATs remain around 1.8-2.2
inches throughout the week, especially across the eastern half of
the area. A front continues to casually meander across the area
today and eventually winds up stalling/washing out along the
coastline or out over the Gulf. This nearby boundary will focus
convective activity along the coast and generally across the eastern
portion of the area (east of I-65) for the next several days. Not
overly concerned with severe weather in this pattern, although a few
strong storms cannot be ruled out in the late afternoon hours.
However, minor, nuisance type flooding remains a concern as slow-
moving storms repeatedly move over the same locations. This will not
be a widespread flooding as convection will remain scattered
in the afternoon hours (plus the ground is not overly saturated
yet), thus we elected not to issue a Flood Watch at this time. That
said, as we roll into Monday and Tuesday, we will need to keep an
eye on parts of northwest Florida (perhaps also parts of south-
central Alabama) where a few days of storms repeatedly producing 1-2
inches or rain may lead to flash flooding concerns. While we will
finish the weekend and start next week on a soggy note, at least the
rain will keep the temperatures a few degrees cooler.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains low through Monday
afternoon before increasing to a MODERATE risk Monday night into
Tuesday. Rip current probabilistic data indicates the risk should
remain low through the remainder of the week for our local beaches.
07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

VFR flight category prevails outside of lingering showers and
thunderstorms through daybreak. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms return by later morning, persisting into the afternoon and
evening hours today, particularly near and east of the I-65
corridor. Expect reductions in flight category underneath any
showers and storms. Winds remain generally out of the north to north-
northeast through the morning hours less than 5 knots, with winds
turning northeasterly to easterly for south-central Alabama during
the afternoon and southerly nearer the coast in association with the
sea breeze around 5 to 10 knots. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms this
week. Winds turn southwesterly through the day as a front stalls
near the coast. Generally light onshore flow persists through the
middle of the week. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  86  72  87  73  89  73  90 /  40  80  60  90  50  90  40  80
Pensacola   76  86  77  86  76  89  76  90 /  70  90  70  90  60  80  40  80
Destin      78  87  77  87  77  90  77  90 /  80  90  80  90  60  80  50  70
Evergreen   71  85  71  86  70  90  71  90 /  50  70  60  80  50  80  30  60
Waynesboro  71  85  69  88  70  89  69  90 /  20  50  30  70  40  70  30  50
Camden      68  82  69  84  70  88  70  89 /  30  60  40  80  40  70  30  50
Crestview   73  86  72  85  71  90  71  90 /  70  90  70  90  50  90  40  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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