218
FXUS64 KMOB 101717
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1217 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A strong upper level shortwave dove into a mean upper trough over
the East Coast Thursday. A cold front has moved offshore Thursday
into tonight, with a somewhat drier airmass moving south over the
forecast area initially in response. Enough moisture and dynamics
from the passing shortwave will help to develop a few showers and
thunderstorms over areas offshore tonight. A developing surface low
off the Florida Atlantic coast moved a slug of Atlantic moisture
inland Thursday, temporarily slowing the drying out over the
forecast area. As the low moves north along the coast Friday on, dry
northerly low level flow is enhanced for the rest of the weekend. A
surface ridge moves over the forecast area and nearby early in the
coming week, keeping the dry airmass in place through the rest of
the forecast. Not to forget, an upper high centered over Texas
meanders a bit east to varying extents in the guidance, leading to a
spread in temperatures in the guidance in the coming week.

Looking at temperatures, well above seasonal high temperatures on
Thursday, drop to around seasonal for Friday (upper 70s over the
northeastern half of the forecast area to low 80s over the
southwest). From there, temperatures moderate upwards, into the mid
to upper 80s by Tuesday as the upper high approaches from west. Low
temperatures see the same dip the end of the week, from low/mid 60s
north of Highway 84 to low 70s along the coast Thursday night to
well below seasonal low to mid 50s over most of the forecast area
Saturday and Sunday nights. From there, low temperatures see an
uptick of a few degrees the rest of the forecast, to the low to mid
60s north of I-10, mid to upper 60s south Wednesday night.

Moderate easterly flow will work with an large tidal cycle to keep a
High Risk of Rip currents into Saturday. Winds shift to more
northeast over the weekend, with the Rip Risk dropping to Low by
Sunday. /16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Northeasterly
winds of around 10 to 15 knots, with occasional gusts to around 20
knots, will decrease to 5 to 10 knots by tonight. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 137 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Moderate to strong offshore flow will follow into the weekend
behind a passing cold front. Winds will ease and become more
variable in the coming week as a surface ridge moves over the
area. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      60  82  56  83  57  85  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   64  82  60  83  61  85  63  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      65  82  62  83  63  85  64  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   57  84  51  86  52  88  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  55  81  52  82  54  85  57  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      57  82  52  82  53  86  55  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   59  83  51  85  53  86  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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