908
FXUS64 KMOB 150514
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1214 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

  - A High risk of rip currents continues along the Northwest
    Florida beaches through tonight with a Moderate Risk at the
    Alabama beaches.


  - Hotter conditions return Wednesday through the end of the
    week, with afternoon heat indices climbing back into the
    triple digits.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Through Friday...an upper level low over the Lower Mississippi River
Valley moves west to over the Southern Plains, with an upper level
ridge over the northeastern Conus shifting south to over the
Southeast, as a ridge builds north over the Rockies. Shortwave
energy moves over the Southeast, providing the beginnings of a mean
upper trough over the Southeast in the extended. A surface low
centered over the Mississippi Delta shifts west with the upper low,
with surface high pressure building over the Gulf. A drier airmass
develops over the Gulf, then shifts north over western/central
portions of the Southeast. Rain chances drop off with the increase
in upper subsidence over the forecast area and drop in moisture
levels. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible north of
Highway 84 Wednesday, with a dry forecast for the rest of the week.

Looking at temperatures, near seasonal high temperatures Wednesday (
around 90 to low 90s) rise into the low to mid 90s by Friday with
the increasing upper subsidence and decreasing deep layer moisture.
Enough moisture remains in the boundary layer for Heat Indices to
rise into the 99 to 106 degree range by Friday. Low temperatures
rise from the low 70s Wednesday night over most of the forecast area
to the mid 70s Friday night. Low temperatures along the coast remain
in the upper 70s though the near term.

Saturday through the weekend...guidance continues to advertise
shortwave energy organizing into an mean upper level shortwave
trough over the Southeast this weekend. Increasing moisture moves
back from the east with the developing upper trough. With varying
placement of the upper trough, where over the precipitation returns
to the region varies. The best compromise is showers and
thunderstorms returning to mainly the eastern half of the forecast
area. Temperatures rise more, to the mid/upper 90s by Tuesday. Heat
indices also rise as moisture levels rise over the forecast area,
rising to Heat Advisory levels over most of the area Monday.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a light to at
times moderate southwest to westerly flow eases, when combined with
a decreasing tidal cycle, to drop the Rip Risk to a Low by the end of
the week.
/16


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Generally VFR flight category will prevail across the region through
the day today. An isolated shower or storm over interior portions of
the area this afternoon may temporarily reduce flight category.
Winds remain generally out of the southwest to west at less than 5
knots through daybreak, becoming 5 to 10 knots during the day. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A light to occasionally moderate westerly flow will continue through
through the end of the week. A west to northwest flow will develop
over the weekend as high pressure shifts west of the area. Seas
generally 2 feet or less for the remainder of the week.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  95  75  97 /  10   0   0   0
Pensacola   77  94  79  96 /  10  10   0  10
Destin      79  91  80  92 /  10  10   0  10
Evergreen   70  91  72  92 /  10   0   0  10
Waynesboro  70  93  72  94 /  10   0   0   0
Camden      70  90  72  90 /  10   0   0  10
Crestview   72  94  74  95 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT early this morning for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$