494
FXUS64 KMOB 120450
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1150 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1147 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

 - High rain chances continue through Saturday with the potential
   for localized flash flooding. A few strong storms capable of
   producing strong wind gusts will be possible through the weekend.

 - High temperature are expected to increase next week with heat
   indices ranging from 100-107 degrees, 102 to 109 MOnday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Through Monday...Shortwave energy moves through an upper level
trough currently over the Lower Mississippi River Valley today. This
upper trough moves over the Southeast, then shifts off the East
Coast, as an upper high organizing over the Southern Plains, then
moves over the Tennessee River Valley and Southeast. The stream of
shortwave energy moving onshore through Saturday over the forecast
area and nearby will combine with the soupy airmass currently over
the forecast area (precipitable h20 values generally in the 2.1"-
2.3" range) to create numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms over
the forecast area this afternoon into tonight. A drier airmass
slowly edges east over the forecast area through the weekend into
Monday (with precipitable h20 values dropping into the 1.5"-1.7
range by Monday), dropping rain chances to isolated to low end
scattered Monday, with the highest values being seabreeze initiated
convection well south of Highway 84. There is a possibility of water
issues into Saturday east of the Alabama River with good instability
(MLCapes topping out in the 2000-2500J/kg range). Add in weak winds
and slow cell movement, any efficient rainers may cause water
issues. Strong to marginally severe storms remain possible Sunday
and Monday, with MLCapes still around 2000J/kg, along with DCapes in
the 700-1000J/kg range, along with weak shear, with pulse severe the
expected damage mode.

Temperatures see a rise from a bit above seasonal norms to well
above by above by Monday. High temperatures in the around 90 to low
90s Saturday (with Heat Indices topping out in the 98 to 106 degree
range) to the low to low to mid 90s Monday (with heat indices in the
101 to 108 range). Low temperatures remain in the low to mid 70s
through the weekend, upper 70s along the coast.

In the extended, an upper low moves south along the East Coast,
shifting the upper high over the Southeast/Tennessee River Valley
westward (to varying extents depending upon the model). Ahead of the
upper low moving south, a drier airmass moves over the eastern half
of the Southeast. Temperatures see a downward trend into the end of
the week with the loss of upper subsidence from the shifting upper
high, with Heat Indices seeing an even greater drop (mid to upper
90s by Thursday). PoPs remain on the drier side, especially over
areas north of our coastal counties. Guidance is inconsistent with
the effect of the upper low on shifting the upper high, so have went
with a blend for the current forecast. With all the inconsistency,
have less confidence in the current latter half of the forecast.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low
Risk is expected through the weekend into the coming week. A more
organized, moderate easterly flow will bring an increase swell to
area beaches, along with a Moderate to High Rip Risk to area beaches.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Showers and storms are expected to redevelop near the coast during
the late night hours then spread inland during the afternoon on
Saturday. MVFR conditions will accompany the stronger showers and
storms. Light and variable winds overnight become south to
southwest at 5-10 knots on Saturday. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

An upper high moving over the Tennessee River
Valley/Southeast, with shift a surface high over the northern Gulf,
bringing a more variable flow to area waters early in the coming
week. A surface ridge develops on the east side of the Appalachians
through the coming week, bringing a light to moderate easterly flow
to area waters, with better flow over open Gulf waters.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  89  73  91 /  30  50  10  50
Pensacola   77  88  77  89 /  60  80  20  60
Destin      78  88  77  88 /  60  80  20  40
Evergreen   71  90  70  93 /  30  50  10  30
Waynesboro  71  91  72  94 /  20  30  10  20
Camden      71  89  72  93 /  20  50  10  20
Crestview   72  90  72  91 /  60  60  10  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$