122
FXUS64 KMOB 021136
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
636 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances increase late week,
  especially Thursday and Friday. A few storms could become strong
  with locally strong wind gusts and isolated flooding from
  intense rainfall rates the primary concerns. A mainly morning
  waterspout risk will also continue each day across marine areas.

- Highest Heat index values mainly 103 to 107 through remainder of
  the week. A few areas may see heat indices 108 to 110. Heat
  related products may be needed for portions of the area during
  the weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Forecast remains on track this morning; no updates needed. /96|

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

A stacked high pressure system centered over the Tennessee Valley
will remain nearly stationary through Thursday night. Large scale
subsidence associated with this system has allowed up the current
Precipitable Water (PWATs) values to lower to around 1.7" as
northeasterly winds above 600mb has advected a much drier air into
the region. A modest increase in moisture to 2-2.2" across the
southern half of our forecast area this afternoon should result in
the development of 20-30% chance of afternoon showers and storms
south of Highway-84. Similar to Tuesday evening, we expect a few
stray showers and storms to survive until mid-evening before
completely dissipating.

A gradually lessening in the upper high pressure area to a more
elongated ridge from the central Plains to the Atlantic will occur
by late in the day Friday. The mid-lower high will also gradually
weaken while a mid-lower easterly wave passes over the the Gulf
Thursday into Friday. An enhanced deep easterly flow between these
two systems will allow deep moisture to enter into the region
with PWATs increasing up to around 2.2-2.4" by late Thursday
night. While we are currently anticipating the easterly system to
remain as an open wave, we will be monitoring a chance that a weak
surface low pressure area could form somewhere across the eastern
Gulf Thursday night. We will however see a substantial increase
in PoPs through the remainder of the work week, with isolated to
scattered showers and storms on Thursday and numerous to
widespread coverage on Friday. Can`t rule out a few strong storms
or even perhaps isolated areas of locally heavy rains resulting in
mainly nuisance type flooding.

We remain in this wetter pattern through the remainder of the
forecast with daily occurrences of scattered to numerous daytime
showers and storms during the afternoon/evening hours over land
zones and the morning hours coastal/marine areas. Heat related
products may be needed for portions of the area during the weekend
into early next week for heat indices of 108 to 110 degrees. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Isolated
to scattered showers and storms are expected to develop by the
afternoon hours, mainly across coastal counties north of I-10.
Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of
the heavier activity. Light and variable winds this morning will
become a light easterly to southeasterly flow throughout the day.
/96


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow pattern is expected
through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, with
offshore winds expected at night and onshore winds during the
day. Rain chances will also increase over the coming days. Expect
higher winds and waves in and around thunderstorms. A few
waterspouts cannot be ruled out during the morning hours. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      93  74  93  74 /  30  10  30  50
Pensacola   92  77  91  76 /  20  10  50  60
Destin      92  78  90  77 /  20  10  60  60
Evergreen   97  73  96  73 /  10  10  20  20
Waynesboro  97  74  97  72 /  10  10  30  10
Camden      97  75  96  74 /  10  10  20  10
Crestview   95  73  93  73 /  10  10  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$