871
FXUS64 KMOB 151734
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

  - Monitoring the potential for a couple of isolated inland
    t-storms today and tomorrow. Overall low confidence for today
    and tomorrow. Should storms develop, risks include locally
    heavy rain, strong gusty winds and dangerous lightning.

  - Temperatures will continue to rise through the rest of the
    week, weekend and into early next week. Forecast heat indices
    in the 100`s this weekend to upper 100`s to low 110`s next
    week for portions of the area, revealing a growing concern
    for heat-related impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Starting out late this morning looking at regional observations
and satellite, rather quiet and calm! Seeing mid-level StratoCu
breaking up revealing developing low-level Cu from surface
heating. In regards to temperatures, the deterministic NBM remain
on track with little bump needed for today, as we`ll be right
around/near climo norms for highs. Few key items to monitor later
today taking a deeper dive into guidance, mostly in regards to
PoPs. Did introduce a minor uptick in 15-20% PoPs inland for
today, which will need to be monitored following the developing
and northward drifting seabreeze. It`ll be a battle between if sfc
confluence from environmental westerly flow and the northward
moving seabreeze can support enough localized ascent to overcome
broad suppression from the nearby high, as recent HRRR sim RF
trends illustrate. Even combined with REFS trends, still seemed
enough to add in a slight uptick for interior regions today. Model
soundings illustrate what was mentioned with a subtle, yet
notable low to mid-level tropospheric subsidence inversion
allowing for a slither of H8-H7 steep lapse rates from
compressional warming, a well-mixed PBL supporting available
instability later today. Something to keep an eye on, but if any
activity develops, will dissipated around sunset.

Quiet tonight, then temperatures bump up tomorrow which will be
the start of a distinct warming trend that will continue into the
weekend and into next week. Only additional focus for tomorrow
was on transitioning NW flow as the ridge drifts west across SE
LA, this, combined with the northward drifting seabreeze may aid
in greater confluence for isolated thunderstorm development. As
of now, the best potential will generally be along the US45
corridor from Wayne Co, SE to Baldwin. This will be something to
closely watch with ample low-level instability, hail-growth CAPE
in the 700-1000j/kg range and downward flux momentum transport
potential to bring down strong gusty winds, especially for
nearshore marine areas. For now, introduced isolated/15% PoP
coverage in this region as deterministic NBM has nothing, but
don`t want to sell too much on the idea for now, but enough to
mention.

Next focus will be the growing heat concerns, especially this
upcoming weekend as afternoon heat indices climb into the low to
mid 100`s Friday and into this weekend, to the upper 100`s to
110`s next week bringing an increased possibility of heat
headlines during this time frame. Given the time of the year for
those enjoying beach activities this weekend and next week, will
be messaging heat safety precautions.

Additionally this weekend into next week, keeping an eye on the
tropics given NHC`s latest low-probabiility of development in the
NE Gulf, particularly near the FL Big Bend area. Still many
uncertainties here between long-range and AI guidance as a
inverted trough parades NW from the Caribbean into the SE Gulf
with time. As with most systems, it`s a strong balance game
between many key features that`ll directly reveal the degree of,
or if, any tropical development can occur in this region. 1) The
lead ridge of high pressure, currently enhancing westerly
850-200mb shear across the Caribbean will build NW with time into
the northern Gulf, How strong this ridge, and where it will end
up will directly result in how much southerly shear will impact
the system hindering, or slowing development. Both the ECMWF and
GFS solutions are a bit split here, with the GFS being the weaker
solution but newer trends in EPS guidance starting to nail down
some potential for development near/around the FL Big Bend the the
CMC being split between the two. Additionally, Deep Mind AI
guidance hints at something relatively weak in the Big Bend, which
then feels the developing east-coast trough and swings east
across the FL peninsula out to the Atlantic Coast. This seems a
bit more plausible at the moment. Overall, for now here locally,
just something to keep an eye on and should changes occur, will be
providing updates. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Light westerly flow remains in place across nearshore and outer Gulf
waters today and Thursday, with brief nearshore wind shift from the
WSW to SW each afternoon following daily seabreeze development. Will
monitor nearshore waters today and Thursday if inland convection
can ignite along the aforementioned seabreeze and drift southeast
back towards the coast, along progressive NW flow developing as a
ridge of high pressure drifts west across SE LA. This could
introduce an isolated risk of gusty, erratic wind gusts in any
locally stronger storm. Seas generally 1-2 for Gulf waters, <1 ft
for protected waters thru the rest of the week and into the
weekend. KLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  95  75  97 /   0  10  10  10
Pensacola   77  95  78  97 /   0  10  10  10
Destin      78  94  79  95 /  10  10  10  20
Evergreen   70  92  72  93 /  10   0  10  10
Waynesboro  70  94  73  95 /  10  20  20   0
Camden      70  90  72  90 /  20   0  10  10
Crestview   72  94  74  95 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$