384
FXUS64 KMOB 041140
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
640 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

 - Temperatures will steadily warm through midweek.

 - Rain chances will increase for mid to late week, potentially
   bringing a risk of strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

The current forecast is on track and no updates are needed at this
time. /13

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Dry conditions are expected to continue through at least Tuesday
night as high pressure settles over the Southeast US and upper
ridging builds over the Gulf. With winds expected to turn onshore
later today, temperatures will continue to warm over the next few
days. Highs will increase into the low to mid 80s by Tuesday, with
a few upper 80s possible by Wednesday. Lows will also warm from
the upper 40s to low 50s this morning to the 60s by Tuesday night.

The forecast becomes rather complicated as we get to Wednesday and
the latter half of the week. Looking aloft, northern-stream
troughing over the north-central US is expected to phase with
southern-stream troughing pushing across the Desert Southwest. As
they phase, a diffluent westerly to southwesterly flow pattern
develops across portions of the Deep South and into the Tennessee
River Valley on Wednesday. At the surface, an associated cold front
will start to push southeastward as an upper-level jet ejects to the
northeast. Plenty of moisture, forcing, and afternoon instability
will allow for showers and storms to develop along the front late
Wednesday afternoon and into the evening hours for areas northwest
of our CWA. For our local area, subsidence/capping from the upper
ridge over the Gulf should help to keep rain chances relatively low
throughout the day on Wednesday. Rain chances start to increase as
we get to Wednesday night as the aforementioned upper-level jet
ejects northeastward, helping to flatten the ridge, resulting in
gradual height falls. Here`s where the forecast becomes complicated.
Ensembles over the past 24-36 hours have been trending toward a much
slower front progression as it pushes through our area. This trend
is likely due the best diffluence/forcing remaining further to the
north and ejecting out of the region much quicker, leaving the front
behind as it moves through the area. Originally, the thinking was
that the front and its associated storms will move into the area
Wednesday night and push offshore sometime late Thursday
morning/early Thursday afternoon. Now, the more likely scenario is
that the front enters the area Thursday morning and it does not push
offshore until sometime Thursday evening/night. If this solution
pans out, this rather stark difference in timing could lead to
several changes in our overall messaging for midweek. These
changes will be described below:

1) Our overall severe risk for Wednesday into Wednesday night would
be decreasing, as storms associated with the front may not arrive
until very late Wednesday night, or even close to sunrise on
Thursday. Displaced forcing and residual subsidence from the upper
ridge should help to limit discrete storms from developing ahead
of the boundary. If a few discrete storms do manage to develop and
move into our northwestern counties Wednesday night, instability
looks rather meager due to the overnight timing and poor lapse
rates.

2) It is possible that the severe risk could increase for Thursday,
as the front serves as a focus for additional storms to develop
along during the late morning/afternoon hours as embedded shortwaves
pass through the southwesterly flow aloft. A diffluent flow pattern
should start to develop as the shortwaves pass overhead. As far as
instability, diurnal heating should help to erode away any residual
capping left over from the upper ridge, and with dewpoints south of
the boundary still in the lower 70s, the overall environment would
likely be quite unstable, favoring surface-based convection south of
the front. Pairing this with impressive shear values on the order of
50-60 knots, this could lead to the organization of supercells.

3) We will have to keep an eye on the potential for very heavy
rainfall on Thursday. As stated earlier, the sagging frontal
boundary would serve as a focus for storms to develop along
throughout the day on Thursday. Pairing this with very high PWATs
(mean ensemble guidance already suggests PWATs to around 1.8-2.0
inches which, when comparing to climatology, is around the 99th
percentile), an unstable environment, and winds aloft moving
parallel to the front, this would support very high rain rates and
training storms, potentially leading to the risk of flash flooding.
That being said, antecedent conditions are still quite dry due to
the ongoing drought, so at this point I would anticipate any
flooding issues to be localized, mainly in urban/poor drainage
areas. It should be noted that it is possible that the front stalls
along or just south of the coast Thursday night and possibly lingers
around the area through Friday and into the weekend. If this
happens, continued shortwaves moving within the southwesterly flow
aloft and high moisture values along the front would lead to
continued heavy rainfall. Confidence in this occurring is very low
at this time, but it`s just something to keep an eye on at this
time.

We will keep an eye on trends over the next day or so and will iron
out the details on what to expect for the latter half of the week
in upcoming forecast packages.

A Low Risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday, becoming a
moderate risk by midweek. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A southerly flow will develop this afternoon and increase Tuesday
into Wednesday ahead of a cold front. A light northerly flow
develops late in the week behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      79  55  80  65 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   78  60  79  69 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      77  62  78  70 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   81  49  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  80  53  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      80  51  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   82  50  83  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$