616
FXUS64 KMOB 231142
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
542 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

VFR ceilings (cigs) and visibilities (vsbys) at the beginning of
the TAF period will deteriorate through the day. Cigs and vsbys
at TAF sites will lower to MVFR around midday as the lower
atmosphere saturates and then to IFR by later this afternoon. IFR
cigs will persist tonight with the potential for some LIFR cigs
late tonight through the end of the TAF period at all terminals.

Northeast to east winds today between 5 and 10 kts, should
increase this evening and become sustained at 10 kts or greater. A
few gusts between 15 and 20 kts will also be possible overnight as
the pressure gradient tightens in response to strengthening
surface low pressure offshore. /JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/

.NEAR TERM... (Now through Monday)
Issued at 445 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Zonal flow aloft over the north central Gulf coast will allow a
pronounced upper level low pressure now positioned over north-
central Texas early this morning to move quickly southeast through
Monday. This upper low is expected to dig southeast and amplify as
it moves across the western Gulf Coast and across the open Gulf. A
weak surface low pressure now off the upper Texas coast is
expected to move quickly east and deepen over the next 24 to 36
hours. Deep layer moisture will continue to increase this morning
in advance of this approaching feature. The airmass which is still
currently dry in the lower and middle layers will saturate from
west to east this morning which along with increasing large scale
forcing associated with the lowering mid level heights and the
left exit region of a 300mb subtropical jet streak that was
analyzed at 90 kts over far south Texas at 00z yesterday evening.
Models also continue to intensify this jet streak to in excess of
140 kts as it propagates east across the central Gulf. Considering
that the warm sector and surface frontal zone will remain well
offshore, we are expecting this to be an overrunning event with
little in the way of available even elevated instability which
should remain to our west over southern Louisiana. Therefore, we
are not anticipating much in the way of thunder with this system
except for potentially across 20-60 nmi marine zones.

Mainly light rain should eventually develop across southeast
Mississippi after sunrise as the atmosphere continues to moisten
from top down. Rain will eventually overspread much of the rest of
region from west to east reaching the I-65 corridor by mid to late
morning, and east of I-65 through the afternoon hours. As
precipitation falls through the initially dry airmass, we are
expecting some wet bulbing effects which should serve to keep high
temperatures stunted, especially west of I-65. In these areas,
highs should remain nearly steady through the day in the upper
40s. Further east, there will likely be some diurnal heating prior
to the onset of precipitation which will allow highs to reach into
the lower to middle 50s along the I-65 corridor, with middle to
upper 50s across areas east of I-65. Highs should be reached early
and then slowly fall after rainfall begins.

Rain will continue through tonight but become increasingly
isolated to scattered on Monday as the low pressure departs to the
east. Temperatures are expected to remain nearly steady overnight
in the 40s and still below average but warmer on Monday with highs
in the lower to middle 60s.

Increased winds over the marine areas will generate a longer
period swell package that will impact the coast by this evening
and continuing through Monday evening. This will result in a high
risk of rip currents tonight and Monday at all area beaches. Beach
goers should remain out of the water this evening through Monday
evening. /JLH

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 445 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Latest medium range global ensemble guidance suggests that mid
level heights should gradually rise through mid week as surface
high pressure becomes entrenched over the area. This will support
a return to dry conditions and warmer weather for Tuesday and
Wednesday. High temperatures will rebound back into the lower to
middle 70s which is a return to above average for this time of
year. Lows will also be warmer through mid week and range from the
lower 40s interior to around 50 degrees near the coast Tuesday
night warming to the upper 40s interior to the lower and middle
50s along the coast.

The low amplitude mid and upper level ridging should break down by
Thursday as another mid level shortwave carves out more troughing
along the East Coast. This will allow for a cold front to push
through the forecast area Thursday. Limited moisture in advance of
this front should limit shower and isolated thunderstorm potential
in the slight chance to chance category. This front will quickly
sweep off the coast Thursday night with weak surface high pressure
rebuilding on Friday into next weekend. The increasing sun angle
and limited cold air behind the front should keep temperatures
only a few degrees cooler on Friday, mainly a return to near
normal highs in the middle to upper 60s with lows back into the
40s each night through the first half of next weekend. High
temperatures Saturday should moderate back into the lower 70s
areawide. /JLH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

A small craft advisory has been issued for the offshore waters and
southern Mobile Bay beginning this afternoon and continuing
through Monday morning. Increasing east winds and building seas
are expected as a result of an intensifying low pressure system
that will move across the coastal waters. Winds between 20 and 25
kts, with gusts as high as 30 kts will become common during the
time that the small craft advisory is in effect.

Winds and seas will gradually subside later Monday with a return
to weak offshore flow through the first part of next week as high
pressure builds back in over the area. This high will shift
quickly east by mid week allowing for a return of weak onshore
flow but continued favorable seas for small craft through
Wednesday. Another cold front will bring increased winds and seas
by the end of the week. /JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      52  45  65  45  72  47  74  52 / 100  80  10   0   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   56  49  64  49  70  50  72  55 /  90  90  20   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      59  50  65  52  71  52  71  56 /  90 100  20   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   56  42  66  42  72  43  76  48 /  80  80  10   0   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  49  40  62  39  70  43  75  49 /  90  70  10   0   0   0   0  10
Camden      54  41  63  41  70  41  75  48 /  70  70  10   0   0   0   0  10
Crestview   58  44  66  44  75  44  76  49 /  80 100  20   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Monday afternoon
     for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Monday afternoon
     for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Monday for
     GMZ631-632-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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