473
FXUS64 KMOB 050459
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1159 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Conditions north of a boundary stalled along the coast have risen to
general MVFR and are expected to remain so into Friday. Another
upper disturbance approaching the area Friday will bring another
round of rain, mainly to areas closer to the coast. General MVFR/VFR
conditions are expected through the day into the evening with local
drops to low end MVFR in the showers are possible. Winds are
expected to remain generally easterly, easing to around 5 knots
overnight and strengthening to around 10 knots during the day.
/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Conditions at 23z ranged from IFR close to a surface boundary along
the northern Gulf coast to VFR well inland. Isentropic upglide
rainshowers will continue through the evening, easing into the
overnight hours as an upper disturbance moves off. With skies
remaining an overcast MVFR/IFR though the overnight, fog development
is expected to be limited. If any clearing does occur, dense fog
remains a possibility. Another upper level shortwave will pass
Saturday bringing another round of upglide rainshowers to the area.
Winds are expected to remain easterly around 10 knots over land
areas through the forecast, with onshore flow over the open Gulf,
maintaining the surface boundary along the coast.
/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

A generally light to occasionally moderate rain continues over
areas mainly along and east of I-65. The shortwave responsible for
the overrunning will move east this evening and help push the
stalled boundary over the Gulf a little farther offshore. This
will help focus the rain more over the marine area this evening
and tonight. Most areas will remain dry on Saturday, however skies
will remain overcast. Isolated showers will be possible near the
coast through Saturday. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s
inland to low 70s along the coast. Highs on Saturday will be
warmer northwest of I-65 where clouds will be thinner, in the mid
80s. Southeast of I-65 will generally see low 80s. /13

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Weak upper level trough aligned from the western Gulf, up into
the southeast US Saturday night and Sunday intersects a plume of
better, deep moisture (PWAT`s >2.00") positioned from the coast,
southward out over the open Gulf. Meanwhile the south and
southwest Gulf becomes a source of interest in the shorter term as
an area of surface low pressure is expected to form. More on this
in a moment. The better chances for showers and storms are
favored to be focused over the coastal waters to start the period
Saturday night with smaller rain chances (~20%) over the coastal
zones for Sunday. Night-time lows Saturday night will remain mild
in the mid to upper 60s interior to lower 70s coast. Daytime
highs Sunday in the mid 80s.

As we open up the new week, the upper trough will have settled
more southward over the central Gulf. This is where a more
complicated synoptic pattern evolves with surface low pressure
potentially organizing over the southern Gulf. At same time, a
quasi-stationary front will be draped over the central Gulf and
there are indications that a tropical or subtropical depression or
storm could form during the early to middle part of next week if
the low remains separate from the frontal boundary. The National
Hurricane Center has increased the potential for development to
50% for the southern reaches of the Gulf. Regardless, any
development deep into the Gulf looks to stay well south of the
local area with any low looking to eject eastward to across the
Florida Peninsula by the middle of the week as a secondary and
stronger cold front makes passage into the northern Gulf. No rain
is anticipated to accompany this front, but there will be a change
in the temperatures as we move through the course of next week.

After another warm day on Monday where highs will range from the
mid to upper 80s, highs mid to late week will only top out in
upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temperatures will turn cooler, dipping
into the 50s across much of the area, primarily along and north
of I-10 by the middle to latter part of the work week. Lower 60s
at the beaches. Will continue rain-free through the remainder of
the week.

Beach Forecast: The risk for rip currents is MODERATE late this
weekend continuing into the early half of next week. /10

MARINE...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

A moderate east to northeast flow will develop tonight into
Saturday with seas building to 4 to 5 feet offshore through the
weekend. Small craft should exercise caution this weekend. A light
to moderate northeast flow will follow for much of next week. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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