148
FXUS64 KMOB 032318
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
618 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

A weak upper low pressure area over southern Mississippi and
southeast Louisiana will slowly drift westward through the weekend
and then dissipate. A weak upper ridge will then build over the
Deep South and northern Gulf through the middle of next week. A
series of low to mid-level easterly waves will continue to move
over the Deep South and northern Gulf through early next week at
the base of low-level ridge across the southeast states. A tight
surface pressure gradient across our area will keep easterly winds
elevated through the weekend, especially for our coastal
communities. These winds will then decrease Sunday night and
Monday as the ridge weakens. Dry conditions will persist through
the remainder of the week aside from isolated showers developing
along the coast late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours.
Better rain chances will occur late Saturday night through Sunday,
with mainly isolated to scattered showers and storms expected,
with numerous showers and storms across our coastal communities.
We will then see a diurnal pattern emerge Monday and Tuesday with
daytime isolated to scattered showers and storms in the forecast,
followed by drier conditions Wednesday and Thursday as the weak
upper ridge builds overhead.

High temperatures in the lower to middle 80s through Monday will
rebound into the middle 80s all areas on Tuesday, and from 85 to
90 degrees midweek. Low temperature in the lower to middle 60s
inland and the upper 60s to lower 70s along the immediate coast
tonight will rebound into the middle 60s to lower 70s through the
remainder of the forecast.

Beach Forecast: A High Surf Advisory for large breaking waves of
4 to 6 feet in the surf zone remains in effect through Sunday
afternoon, while the High Rip Current Risk persists through
Monday afternoon. The combination of the high breaker heights and
HIGH rip current risk will result in dangerous swimming and
surfing conditions along our beaches over the weekend into Monday
afternoon. Localized beach erosion is also possible. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR conditions expected over most of the forecast area through the
forecast. The exception is mainly rain showers with a possible
thunderstorm affecting near coastal area on Saturday. Northeast to
easterly winds of 5 to 10 knots will drop to around 5 knots or
less well inland overnight. Winds are expected to arise to around
10 knots and gusty Saturday.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf through the
weekend as strong easterly flow persists at the base of a strong
surface ridge across the southeast states. Seas will continue to
range from 7 to 9 feet well offshore. Small craft should exercise
caution over all bays and sounds due to a moderate easterly flow.
Winds will gradually decrease Sunday night through Monday with
seas slowly subsiding. A light to moderate easterly to
northeasterly flow will follow through midweek. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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