895
FXUS64 KMOB 220503
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1203 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Mid to upper ridging gradually undergoes anticyclonic wave
breaking over the region as an inverted upper trough shifts
westward across the northern gulf by mid to late week. Hot
afternoon temperatures remain expected for today and Wednesday
with afternoon highs in the middle to upper 90`s, hottest today.
Overnight lows stay very warm in the middle to upper 70`s for most
locations. The combination of lower to middle 70`s dew points and
the afternoon heat will allow for heat indices to warm into the
100 to 110 range, warmest nearer the coast. A Heat Advisory
remains in effect for all of the forecast area today, with another
one likely needed for Wednesday. A caveat to Wednesday could be
the anticipated increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage
during the afternoon which could limit how hot we can get across
the area and likewise how high our heat indices can make it. Best
chances for highest heat indices will be nearer the coast and west
of the I-65 corridor.

With the aforementioned inverted trough entering the picture along
with weak surface troughing or low pressure skirting the coast,
rain and thunderstorm chances increase substantially as we head
into the Wednesday through Friday timeframe with scattered to
numerous coverage of showers and storms expected each day. As the
trough moves out of the area, we return back to a more typical
Summer time pattern for the weekend with scattered to locally
numerous afternoon showers and storms, greatest coverage nearer
the coast in association with the afternoon sea breeze boundary.
Additionally, with increasing onshore flow the rip current risk
will steadily rise late week. The rip current risk for area
beaches will remain Low through Wednesday. As we head into
Thursday the rip current risk increases to a Moderate and by
Friday a High risk. While the current forecast calls for the rip
current risk to drop to a Moderate by Saturday, if onshore flow
remains strong enough the high risk could linger into the weekend.
MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

VFR conditions prevail through much of the period. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon hours, mainly across eastern areas, on Tuesday before
dissipating during the evening. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Light to occasionally moderate westerly winds continue through
Wednesday. Winds shift Wednesday night to a light to moderate
easterly to southeasterly flow. Flow becomes light to moderate
southerly Thursday night into Friday, gradually relaxing and
becoming westerly late this weekend. No impacts are expected
outside of higher winds and seas in or around any thunderstorms.
MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  96  75  90  74  88  75  89 /  20  80  50  90  50  90  30  80
Pensacola   80  95  78  89  78  89  78  89 /  30  80  60  90  50  80  30  70
Destin      81  93  79  89  79  90  80  91 /  40  80  70  90  50  80  30  60
Evergreen   75  95  74  90  73  90  73  91 /  20  70  40  90  30  80  20  60
Waynesboro  74  96  73  92  73  89  71  88 /  10  60  30  70  20  80  10  60
Camden      75  95  74  91  73  89  73  90 /  10  60  30  70  20  80  10  60
Crestview   75  94  74  89  73  89  73  91 /  30  90  50 100  40  80  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob