598
FXUS64 KMOB 010556
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1256 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

 - Some strong to potentially severe storms are possible mainly
   during the afternoon hours on Monday and Tuesday. Locally heavy
   rainfall is possible which could lead to flooding concerns.

 - Heat Risk Concerns: Heat indices of 100-105 expected Monday
   across much of the area.

 - HIGH risk of rip currents Thursday through Friday for the Alabama
   and northwest Florida beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

An upper trof oriented from the Great Lakes to the New England
area progresses down into the extreme southeast states through
Tuesday night. In response to this system, a surface low near the
Georgia coast moves off into the western Atlantic and in the
process brings a weak frontal boundary southward to near the
coast Monday morning. The weak boundary becomes diffuse Monday
afternoon and appears to drift into the central portion of the
forecast area before returning to near the coast Monday night. The
weak boundary lingers near the coast on Tuesday, then a back-door
cold front is expected to push through the area from the east in
response to a large surface high building over the eastern states.
On top of the active synoptic pattern, there is the potential for
an MCS to move through the area on both Monday and Tuesday. Have
gone with chance to likely pops for Monday then mainly likely pops
follow for Tuesday. MLCAPE values of 1500-3000 J/kg, potentially
higher, are indicated Monday afternoon with values of 1500-2500
J/kg for Tuesday afternoon. Shear values look low through Tuesday,
with 0-6 km bulk shear of 20 knots or less. However, should an
MCS develop then higher shear values will be realized depending on
the strength of the MCS. SPC currently has a marginal risk of
severe storms over interior areas on Monday and over part of the
eastern portion on Tuesday. Will continue to message the potential
for strong to potentially severe storms on both days due to ample
instability and also the potential MCS each day.

Mainly dry conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday as an
upper ridge builds into the area, then a trend towards mainly
chance pops is expected by Saturday as the upper ridge weakens
and shifts eastward. Highs on Monday will be in the lower 90s
with upper 80s to lower 90s expected for Tuesday. Heat index
values of 100-105 are anticipated Monday afternoon with a bit
lower values for Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday will be cooler in the
wake of the back-door front and range from the upper 70s to lower
80s. Highs then trend to the mid 80s for Friday and Saturday.
Lows Monday night will be in the 70s then trend much cooler by
Wednesday night to range from the upper 50s well inland to the mid
60s near the coast. Overnight lows then trend warmer through
Saturday night to range from the upper 60s well inland to the mid
70s at the coast. A moderate rip current risk is expected Monday
for the western Florida panhandle beaches while a low risk is
anticipated for the Alabama beaches. A low risk is expected for
all beaches on Tuesday, then a moderate risk follows for
Wednesday. A High Risk of rip currents is expected on Thursday and
Friday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions generally prevail through the period. Low
confidence in MVFR ceilings overnight, but if lower ceilings do
materialize, it may impact the KPNS terminal along with parts of
south-central Alabama and northwest Florida. Storms will develop
this afternoon with the potential for an MCS to slide across the
area from north to south by late afternoon. MVFR/IFR conditions
along with gusty, erratic winds are possible near storms.
Southwesterly to southerly winds increase along the coast this
afternoon with gusts up to 18 knots. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow persists
through Monday. Winds turn northerly late Tuesday and easterly by
the middle of the week. Small craft conditions are possible
Wednesday through Friday in moderate to strong easterly to
southeasterly flow. Expect locally higher winds and seas near
thunderstorms.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      93  73  92  70 /  50  20  70  40
Pensacola   91  76  90  71 /  40  20  60  50
Destin      88  75  88  71 /  30  20  40  50
Evergreen   92  72  90  66 /  30  20  60  20
Waynesboro  93  72  90  67 /  40  30  60  10
Camden      90  71  86  65 /  30  30  40  20
Crestview   94  72  92  67 /  40  30  60  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$