991
FXUS64 KMOB 072353
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
653 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Through Sunday Night...

Opening the period with an upper ridge in place from the Gulf into
northern Mexico. On its northern periphery, an active west northwest
flow is in place over the MS River Valley. Embedded in the flow is
an organized convective complex/concentrated lightning moving
eastward over northern AL. The high resolution convection-allowing
models (CAMs) continue this feature east southeast through this
evening. The southwest extension of the complex/outflow boundary
looks to potentially sink southeast into the northeast zones this
evening, supporting a slight chance of evening showers/storms up
that way. This is suggested by the latest time of arrival tools and
High resolution ensembles. There are indications that the activity
will weaken as it tracks southeast over the interior. There is also
a small east to west band of showers/storms developing eastward into
the MS Sound. The HRRR resolves it but weakens it before evening.
Nevertheless, will have a 10% PoP over the near shore zones this
evening to account for anything that may form. Low level/surface
high holds in place across the Bahamas, westward into the Gulf.
Environmental moisture remains unchanged initially where PWAT`s
range 1.6 to 1.8". The upper ridge over the Gulf and Deep South
retreats to the southwest late in the weekend as a large deep closed
low pressure system exits south central Canada and settles over the
western Great Lakes region. With the approach and passage of
stronger upper shortwave activity/ascent at the base of an evolving
more amplified upper trof, a pre-frontal surface trof of low
pressure sagging southward into the northern zones combined with
PWAT`s ticking up to around 2 inches, an increase in areal coverage
is expected in showers and storms Sunday. The short range ensembles
suggest the interior may begin to see a chance of storms coming in
from the north during the pre-dawn hours Sunday. Some of the storms
could become marginally severe Sunday. Chances of showers and storms
look to remain likely into Sunday night. Rip Current risk will
remain Moderate over the weekend.

Very warm temperatures will persist. Highs Sunday 3 to 6 degrees
above normal over the central sections of the local area, ranging
from 90 to 95 degrees. This is bounded by closer to normal highs in
the upper 80`s along and north of US Hwy 84 and at the coast and
barrier islands. Apparent temperatures (heat indices) should range
from the upper 90s to as high as 105 degrees from the I-10 corridor
to south of US Hwy 84. Much above normal lows tonight and Sunday
night will be in the mid 70s inland and mid/upper 70s along the
coast. These numbers are some 7 to 12 degrees above normal. /10 /22

Monday through Friday

An upper low will pivot over the Upper Mississippi Valley, with the
axis of its trough extending southward and into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a weak boundary will trail from
its surface low over the Great Lakes, southwestward into the
Southern Plains. Closer to home, southwest flow aloft will persist
across the local area, keeping an influx of moisture, while weak
shortwaves rotate around the base of the trough. This will keep a
rather active pattern over the region through midweek.

Showers/storms will likely be pushing east of the of the forecast
area early on Monday, with dry conditions expected for the morning
hours. Guidance is fairly consistent on a stronger shortwave
developing early Monday morning and then lifting to the northwest as
it rotates through the eastern periphery of the trough. At the
surface, lingering mesoscale boundaries to our west will provide a
focus for convective initiation early on Monday, with this activity
becoming an MCS that will move eastward through the period. Although
guidance is in fair agreement on the synoptic pattern and the
shortwave moving through on Monday, the timing and location of the
MCS differs among the various guidance. When/where this activity
ends up will be dependent on the location of any mesoscale
boundaries, which is difficult to pinpoint. So this is a scenario of
yes there will be thunderstorms and the coverage will be high; but
where exactly this MCS moves is nearly impossible to say at this
point. There`s also the potential for multiple rounds of convection
if any boundaries linger into the overnight hours. That said, the
environmental conditions during the day on Monday will support
isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms within the MCS. Given the
lack of wind shear, the main threat will be damaging straight line
winds.

The upper low and trough will slowly move eastward on Tuesday and
Wednesday, with flow aloft over the local area becoming more
northwesterly. Weak shortwaves will continue to move around the base
of the trough and through the region, with higher than normal precip
chances expected to continue through Wednesday. Although we have
high PoPs in the forecast for this timeframe, uncertainty does
remain high on the exact timing of individual waves of storms.
Additionally, these storms will be diurnally enhanced, with the
higher coverage expected in the afternoon, and activity diminishing
somewhat after sunset.

A southern stream trough will become a closed low over the Southern
Plains by Thursday, pushing the initial trough well east of the
area. The southern stream trough quickly move eastward through
Friday, with surface flow remaining from the south. This will keep
scattered to numerous showers/storms in the forecast, with the best
chance each afternoon. /73

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
A band of showers and storms may develop during the late morning
hours over our northern counties, slowly sliding southwards
throughout the afternoon and into the early evening hours. Expect
brief reductions in visibility and ceilings in some of the
heavier activity. Southwesterly to westerly winds of around 5 to 10
knots will continue through the period. Winds will be a bit
higher over coastal counties tomorrow, where wind gusts to around
20 knots may be possible. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A light to moderate southwesterly flow will persist through early
next week, and appears an increased coverage of showers/
thunderstorms to close out the weekend and moving into the middle of
next week. Overall, low impactful weather is anticipated for small
craft operators outside of any storms where winds and seas will be
locally higher. May have to also watch for some isolated AM
waterspouts over the weekend. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  92  73  90  72  87  71  89 /  10  30  60  70  70  90  50  80
Pensacola   79  91  78  89  77  87  75  87 /  10  30  60  70  70  90  60  80
Destin      80  90  79  89  78  88  76  89 /  20  30  60  70  70  90  70  80
Evergreen   75  93  71  90  70  87  68  89 /  20  60  70  80  80  90  40  80
Waynesboro  73  91  70  89  69  85  68  88 /  10  50  60  80  70  90  30  70
Camden      74  88  70  85  68  83  67  87 /  30  60  70  90  80  80  40  60
Crestview   75  94  72  90  71  89  69  89 /  10  50  60  80  70 100  50  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob