140
FXUS64 KMOB 051800
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1200 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

  - Additional rounds of light to moderate rain through Saturday
    will be focused near and southeast of the I-65 corridor.

  - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents through
    the early evening hours for the beaches of Alabama and the
    western Florida Panhandle.

  - A strong cold front will move across the area late Sunday
    night into early Monday morning, resulting in hazardous marine
    conditions for small craft through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

The next round of rain is moving in as of midday as the next
subtle shortwave embedded in the upper level southwest flow moves
through. It looks like this round will impact us mostly this
afternoon into early this evening, with highest totals being over
the southern and eastern half of the area. This round will likely
be followed by another relative lull in the rain late this
evening into part of the overnight. However, a more well defined
shortwave currently moving into the southern Plains will result in
a new round of light to moderate developing by early Saturday
morning along and southeast of the I-65 corridor. Given the more
progressive nature of this shortwave from west to east, we finally
expect to see significant rain chances come to an end from west
to east by late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
Additional rainfall totals of a 0.5-1.5" are possible in the
eastern half of the area, with the highest totals favored along
the coast. We currently do not expect much in the way of flooding
issues outside of some ponding of water in poor drainage areas.

Yet another strong shortwave will move out of the Pacific
Northwest and into the southeast/TN Valley by Sunday night. This
will push a much stronger cold front through the area late Sunday
night into early Monday morning. It`s a bit uncertain how much
deep layer moisture will be available ahead of this system, but
we did maintain a chance of showers for Sunday and Sunday night
given the dynamics of this system.

Much colder and drier air moves into the area in the wake of the
front for early next week. A light freeze is likely along and
north of Hwy 84 Tuesday morning. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A large band of cloud cover continues to stream over the central
Gulf coast. Radar shows coverage of mainly -RA increasing over the
offshore waters and gradually lifting/spreading north and
northeast. Appears a sheet of BKN/OVC Cigs mainly MVFR bases is
favored to lower to IFR categories going through the afternoon as
rains spread in from the west southwest. Some oscillations to
MVFR/LIFR cig categories can be expected from time to time. Wind
maintained with a northerly component at mostly 5 to 10 kts thru
the afternoon becomes light overnight. /10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A light to moderate offshore flow will persist through Saturday
as a cold front settles further south over the Gulf waters. A
strong cold front will move through late Sunday night into early
Monday morning, bringing another round of strong offshore flow and
building seas across the open Gulf waters. Winds and seas will
subside through midweek as high pressure builds over the region.
34/JFB

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$