427
FXUS64 KMOB 070016
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
716 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 715 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

 - HIGH risk of rip currents continues through tonight for the
   coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

 - Rain chances remain elevated this weekend, particularly over
   the western half of the local area. Heavy rainfall is possible,
   which could lead to localized flooding concerns.

 - Heat indices may reach the 100 degree mark by the middle of next
   week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A very moist airmass over the forecast area (precipitable h20 values
nearing 2.5") and a passing mid level shortwave trough fired a round
of showers and thunderstorms over southeast Mississippi this
afternoon, with bands of convection continuing to fire and move
inland from the north-central Gulf. This convection has spread over
most of the forecast area by 6pm/23Z, with a modest line of showers
and thunderstorms moving east over southwest Alabama. The period of
training cells bringing localized water issues over southeast
Mississippi has eased, though a few FFWs remain in effect. Some
local ponding issues may occur into the evening hours over southwest
Alabama, especially with any focusing of convection on any outflow
boundary left behind by the weakening eastward-moving outflow.
Limited instability will limit any stronger storms, especially as
the day`s heating is lost through the evening. The big picture with
the forecast is pretty much on track for tonight, but will continue
to monitor for any water issues.
/16

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

06.12Z upper air maps show a short wave upper ridge at high
levels over the Gulf while at mid-levels the ridge axis is
positioned more over the FL Peninsula. In the lower levels with
the ridge east of the area, a weakly reflected inverted surface
trof of low pressure is lifting northward over southeast
LA/southern MS. The environment is deeply moist and primed. The
06.12Z sounding at LIX shows PWAT`s ~2.25" and very near the
maximum of the sounding climatology. East of the trof, bands of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall aligned north to south will
spread in off the Gulf in the near term and lift north and
northeast through the area. The concern continues to be
flooding, but the good news is radar trends thus far has shown
limited residence time over any one area in particular to result
in water problems. Although we saw a short break over the last
several days, excessive rainfall in May has re-charged soil
moisture structure. If storms begin to show repeated motions over
the same areas the threat of runoff, rapid filling of low lying
areas and resultant flooding problems could evolve where drainage
is poor this afternoon. The national centers have outlooked these
areas for a slight risk of excessive rainfall.

Deep layer moisture/and better ascent looks to be aligned from the
TN Valley to the Gulf coast tonight, on the northwest periphery of
the southeast US mid level ridge axis. There are indications though,
coverage should begin to decrease with isolated to scattered
showers/perhaps a few storms mixed continuing to move through the
area this evening/overnight. Additional rounds of showers and
storms are expected Sunday with increased coverages mainly west of
I-65. Storms should start to develop by around daybreak,
spreading inland throughout the afternoon. Once again, there could
be some localized flooding in spots where storms move over the
same areas. Rain chances drop off Sunday night.

Upper ridging begins to build back into the area for early next
week. Subsidence from this upper ridge should help to lower rain
chances across the area for Monday and Tuesday. A more typical
summertime pattern (isolated to scattered mainly afternoon
pulse-type storms) looks to setup Wednesday thru Friday. A
diurnal decrease in storms expected each night.

Highs Sunday in the lower/mid 80`s and some 2 to 7 degrees below
normal for June 7th, will warm into the upper 80`s/lower 90s and a
few degrees above normal for the upcoming week. With afternoon
dewpoints in the lower/mid 70`s, heat indices could reach near
the century mark mid to late week. Little change in overnight
lows. Lower/mid 70`s and well above normal through the period.

Feel it wise to hold onto a High Risk of Rip Currents through
tonight despite latest data suggesting a category reduction in the
risk. Latest rip current model data suggests that the risk trends
back to moderate Sunday. As winds weaken, the rip current risk is
favored to drop back to a low risk by Monday night into the middle
of the week. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Mainly MVFR to VFR cigs are expected through the period with tempo
drops to IFR cigs and visbys in and around showers and storms. Rain
coverage should decrease through the evening and overnight.
Scattered showers and storms with locally heavy rain develop once
again on Sunday morning and increase in coverage by afternoon,
mainly along and west of I-65. Expect brief drops to IFR visbys and
localized gusty winds from any storms. A general southerly flow
around 5-10 knots is expected through the period. JGC/98

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A light to moderate south to southeast flow is expected as we move
into the remainder of the weekend and open up the new week. A
brief period of easterly flow on Tuesday returns to south to
southeast by the middle of next week. Seas to gradually lower.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  85  73  86 /  60  70  10  10
Pensacola   76  85  75  87 /  40  30  10   0
Destin      76  85  75  87 /  20  20  10   0
Evergreen   71  84  70  87 /  30  80  20  10
Waynesboro  72  84  72  85 /  50  80  30  40
Camden      71  82  70  84 /  40  90  40  30
Crestview   72  86  70  90 /  20  40  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$