951
FXUS64 KMOB 010539
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1239 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances increase late week,
  especially Thursday and Friday. A few storms could become
  strong, with locally strong wind gusts and isolated flooding
  form intense rainfall rates the primary concerns. A mainly
  morning waterspout risk will also continue each day across
  marine areas.

- Heat index values near 100 trend higher through this week,
  potentially reaching 105-108 in some locations by late in the
  week on into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Starting off tonight once again on the clear/calm and dry side!
Our main story (Now TS Edouard) in the NW Gulf continues to drift
away from the local area, with light/moderate easterly low-level
flow prevailing. This morning, precipitable water tells an
interesting story showing how slightly drier air continues to sag
south to just about the northern Gulf coastline. With our area
being in such a benign upper-level pattern with no outside source
of lift aside from diurnal destabilization, we won`t see much in
the way of coverage, perhaps even less than the last few days
given drier upper-level air and subtle suppression at play. Can`t
rule out a few isolated showers/storms as NBM PPI grids pinpoint
best coverage/chances along the I-10 corridor from where the
seabreeze boundary could offset the lack of dynamic ascent and
subtle suppression. So don`t be surprised to see a passing shower
or two, but will be very brief and not widespread.

Generally the same story Wednesday, same coverage chances, same
locations. Temperatures do continue to bump up some into the mid
90`s for highs, but afternoon PBL mixing reducing dewpoints into
the low 70`s (upper 60`s inland) will reduce the risk for any
excessive heat indices or heat risk.

Now Thursday into Friday, we see a bit of a shift in the forecast
as the ridge center to our north craws to the east into the mid
Atlantic states. What happens is we get a bit of a nudge of weak
PVA/impulses riding west along northern Florida, associated with
a prominent slug of anomalously high PW airmass with it. A much
greater tropospheric moisture profile at play and greater dynamic
ascent will be plenty to aid in numerous/likely PoP chances for
both days, with greatest coverage in the afternoon/evening hours.
(coastal/marine areas in the morning hours). Can`t rule out a few
strong storms, or even perhaps isolated areas of flash flooding.
Something to keep an eye on. Highs have finally come into a better
realization of the coverage now backing down to near 90-92 for
most of the area, but be aware this could still even be to high
for some areas. Don`t expect an all-day washout, but several
periods of passing showers/storms can be expected.

This weekend into early next week, the pattern switches up as the
ridge center re-develops to the west over the central US, allowing
for amplifying east-coast troughing. Such a prominent switch into
northerly upper-level flow (for this time of the year) will need
to be watched as we could see a slow- moving front drift into the
local area this weekend into early next, providing another uptick
in shower/storm coverage. How far this front makes it will remain
to be seen. If the front does attempt to pass and high pressure
builds into the Appalachians, yes, we could be greeted with some
50 degree dewpoints, especially for interior areas. Something
we`ll continue to monitor. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Isolated
to scattered showers and storms are expected to develop by the
afternoon hours. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and
ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Light and variable winds
this morning will become a light easterly to southeasterly flow
throughout the day. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Persistent light to moderate easterly flow can be expected today
around 8-14kts for outer waters, reducing to 4-8kts in the afternoon
and remaining light through the rest of the week ahead. Expect mainly
morning scattered shower/storm chances each day, with greater
enhancement of coverage possible Thursday and Friday mornings. Main
hazards with any stronger to severe storm will be localized wind
gusts greater than 34 knots, enhanced/waves seas and waterspouts.
KLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      92  73  93  74 /  30  10  50  20
Pensacola   90  77  90  77 /  20  10  50  40
Destin      89  77  89  77 /  20  10  50  40
Evergreen   95  73  95  70 /  10   0  20  10
Waynesboro  96  73  97  71 /  10  10  20   0
Camden      95  74  95  72 /   0   0  20   0
Crestview   93  72  93  72 /  20   0  60  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$