066
FXUS64 KMOB 081735
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1135 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Low-end MVFR ceilings are currently spread across the local area
at issuance time. These ceilings should begin to scatter out from
south to north throughout the afternoon. Low-end VFR or MVFR
ceilings should remain prevalent through the overnight hours and
into Saturday morning. Northeasterly to easterly winds of around 5
to 10 knots will be in place through tonight. Breezy
southeasterly winds, with gusts up to 20 knots, should develop by
late Saturday morning. /96

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Ridging aloft will continue to extend across much of the north
central Gulf Coast region and Florida peninsula today and tonight,
while a potent upper level storm system pivots from New Mexico into
the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles today and eventually into the
central Plains by tonight. A plume of deep layer moisture with
precipitable water values up to around 2 inches will slowly
translate northward across our forecast area underneath the ridge
axis through this afternoon and weak ascent may allow for the
development of a few rain showers today, but the overall chances of
measurable rainfall remain very low between 10-20% given the very
spotty/isolated nature of rain shower activity. We continue to
anticipate dry weather conditions for the most part going into this
evening and overnight, although a few isolated light rain showers
cannot be entirely ruled out given the persistent plume of moisture
remaining in place over much of our region. Skies will remain mostly
cloudy with unseasonably warm and humid conditions persisting into
tonight. The upper level ridge axis will slowly shift eastward on
Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft increases across the
Mississippi Valley region ahead of the upper level trough over the
Plains. Ascent along the eastern fringe of the trough axis to our
west may aid in the development of a few rain showers across
portions of southeast MS and interior southwest AL by Saturday
afternoon, so we will advertise a slight chance (~20%) of rain over
this portion of our area. The ridge axis will otherwise still
maintain its influence over much of our forecast area on Saturday,
allowing for a continuation of unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs
today and Saturday are forecast to range between 80-85 degrees,
while lows tonight generally range in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Swells associated with Hurricane Rafael moving slowly westward
across the central Gulf will continue to bring high surf and deadly
rip currents to the Alabama and northwest Florida panhandle beaches
through the weekend. We have extended the High Surf Advisory through
Sunday afternoon. The high rip current risk will persist into Monday
night. /21



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  82  69  79  67  80  61  80 /  10  10  20  40  30  20  10   0
Pensacola   72  80  72  79  70  79  64  79 /  10   0  10  20  20  20  10   0
Destin      72  80  72  79  71  80  66  79 /  10   0  10  20  20  10  10   0
Evergreen   69  83  66  79  64  80  57  80 /  10  10  20  30  30  20  10   0
Waynesboro  68  84  66  77  64  78  56  80 /  10  20  40  40  40  20  10   0
Camden      69  82  65  78  62  77  53  78 /  10  10  30  40  40  30  10   0
Crestview   70  84  66  82  64  84  58  83 /  10  10  10  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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