598
FXUS64 KMOB 040610
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
110 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Now Through Wednesday Night...

The cu field has developed right on cue across inland communities as
we continue to approach peak heating this afternoon. Majority of the
forecast remains on track for the rest of the day with highs topping
out in the upper 80s to low 90s. Main tweak was to the dewpoints as
most of the guidance was too high and did not indicate the
anticipated drier air mixing down, predominantly across our inland
counties. Very isolated showers and storms are possible after
roughly 21z this afternoon across south-central Alabama and
northwest Florida, but the majority of the area will remain dry.

An upper level low continues to meander over the Southeast and
eastern Gulf through Wednesday, but becomes a bit muddled (opening
up into a trough) as we roll into the evening hours on Wednesday. In
the lower levels, a weak inverted trough lifts north across the
Southeast on Wednesday. As a result of this pattern, there will be a
gradient in moisture developing across the area this afternoon and
evening with moisture flowing into the southeastern portion of the
area (closest to the upper level feature) and dry air flowing into
the northwestern portion of our area (on the backside of this
feature). Precipitable water increases to 1.6-1.8 inches tonight
across northwest Florida with barely an inch further to the
northwest. Moisture levels continue to amplify over the region as we
roll into Wednesday with HREF ensemble mean PWATs increasing to 1.8-
2.2 inches across the eastern 2/3rds of the area. There will be
ample moisture, upper level support, and a focus for storms along
the inverted trough on Wednesday. Widely scattered showers and
storms are expected tomorrow, especially in the late afternoon and
early evening timeframe across the eastern portion of the area. While
we don`t anticipate severe storms, we can`t rule out some gusty
winds. At this point, we aren`t overly concerned with widespread
flooding; however, these storms will be efficient rainmakers. While
the axis of heaviest rain will be to the east of us, we cannot rule
out some minor, nuisance-type flooding Wednesday afternoon where
storms repeatedly move over the same locations.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains MODERATE through the rest
of today with lifeguards reporting yellow flags flying at local
beaches. The risk increases to HIGH on Wednesday and Wednesday night
(likely lasting through Friday) at all coastal Alabama and northwest
Florida beaches with increasing onshore flow. Expect a bump in surf
heights with 3-4 foot breakers this evening through the overnight
hours (and another bump to 3-4 feet on Thursday). 07/mb

Thursday through Monday

An upper trof over the extreme southeastern states on Thursday, the
remnants of an upper low, slowly moves off into the western Atlantic
through Friday. A surface trof of low pressure looks to be aligned
across the forecast area on Thursday, associated with a surface low
over/near the Carolinas. There is uncertainty with the position of
the surface trof on Friday, which may be weakly defined, meandering
over the area or shifting to just north of the area while the main
surface low/pressure trof moves slowly off the coast of North
Carolina. The presence of the surface trof will support likely
pops for much of the area on Thursday, then good chance to likely
pops follow for Friday as the surface trof may continue to aid in
convective development.

A broad upper trof pattern centered over the northern/central Plains
on Friday evolves into a steadily amplifying upper trof over the
eastern states over the weekend into Monday. A surface low is
anticipated to develop over the interior eastern states in response
on Friday, and either moves further off to the north over the
weekend or merges with the surface low off the coast of North
Carolina which also moves well off to the north. Either way, this
pattern brings a surface trof to near the northern portion of the
forecast area on Saturday which lingers near this position into
Sunday. On Monday, the surface trof, or frontal boundary by this
point, finally progresses into the forecast area, possibly as far as
to near the coast. The evolving upper trof pattern allows for a
series of potentially vigorous shortwaves to translate eastward
across the forecast area from Saturday into Monday, and with the
surface trof in the proximity and eventually moving into the area,
this will support likely to at times categorical pops through this
time-frame. A high risk of rip currents is expected for Thursday
into Friday, then a moderate risk follows for the weekend. /10 /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

VFR conditions prevail through much of the period with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing Wednesday afternoon.
Brief period of MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible in and
around showers and storms. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Southeasterly winds briefly increase to exercise caution in the far
offshore waters this afternoon and evening into the pre-dawn hours
on Wednesday. Outside of this bump in winds, no additional impacts
are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near
thunderstorms. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      89  70  89  72  91  74  92  75 /  50  10  40  10  40  10  40  30
Pensacola   85  74  87  76  88  78  91  79 /  60  20  70  20  60  20  60  40
Destin      87  75  88  77  89  79  90  79 /  60  40  70  30  60  20  60  40
Evergreen   89  68  91  70  93  72  94  72 /  60  10  60  10  50  10  60  40
Waynesboro  90  68  90  71  93  72  94  72 /  30   0  30   0  30  10  50  40
Camden      87  68  88  70  91  72  91  71 /  40  10  40  10  40  20  60  50
Crestview   89  68  90  70  93  72  94  73 /  70  20  70  10  60  10  70  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Friday
     afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Friday
     afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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