900
FXUS64 KMOB 202355
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
655 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 654 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- Abnormally hot conditions continue with a Heat Advisory in
  effect for all locations Thursday and Friday as afternoon heat
  indices rise into the 108 to 112 range.

- Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to be capable of
  producing brief intense rainfall, resulting in localized
  flooding and locally strong to damaging wind gusts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 654 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Lingering light rain across the coastal counties behind earlier
storms should gradually diminish around sunset. A few storms over
Choctaw and Wayne counties should also diminish over the next few
hours. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. JGC/98

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Starting off with late this morning, offshore convection
continues, fueled by ample marine instability and the remnant
landbreeze boundary. Will keep an eye on weak/subtle backbuilding
and NW propagation per recent upwind corfidi vectors from the SE,
but should remain weak enough and locked over outer waters before
dissipating. Otherwise, we`ll heat on up over land areas again
today enough to reach convective T. Looks like it`ll be another
similar day to yesterday with earliest convection igniting from
greatest onset forcing caused by either subtle confluence bands or
seabreeze interactions. Any boundary interactions will quickly
allow updrafts to accelerate, and with notable dry air entrainment
(DCAPE >1000j/kg), severe downburst winds will yet again be
another risk. Best timing from 2PM-7PM this afternoon. Otherwise,
no modifications needed to temperatures as guidance/trends remains
on track, with a Heat Advisory remaining in effect.

Friday and going into the weekend, we remain in general mid-level
weakness on the eastern periphery of an anonymously strong ridge
over the four corners region, with broad troughing centered over
the Ohio/TN valley. Could distinctly see a rinse- repeat of
today/yesterday again for Friday introducing another round of
strong to locally severe storms in the afternoon hours.
Additionally, went with another Heat Advisory for all areas as
heat indices reach 108-111, moreso along the I-10 corridor. Then,
going into the weekend, the aforementioned broad trough sharpens
into the mid/southern Atlantic states, helping to push (slightly)
drier air aloft into the region. Could see just enough suppression
to offset peak heating, diurnally forced convection, or at least
enough to lower coverage overall. NBM PoPs are coming into
agreement on that idea reducing coverage down to 10-20% in areas.
Still, areas of greatest forcing, enough to offset this
suppression (moreso caused by seabreeze/boundary confluence) could
get a few isolated storms going.

With this slightly drier air, it`s likely we`ll be introduced
with lower dewpoints, perhaps reaching the low to mid 60`s for
interior AL counties which will reduce the need for heat
advisories. However, will watch the coast where it could remain
close enough, especially near/south of the I-10 corridor.

Monday into next week, focus will be on what long-range guidance
is hinting with shortwave impulses riding around the ridge from
the north-central Plains into the TN valley, and how any
sfc/mesoscale reflection could be in the form of either a NW to SE
MCS, and how far/expansive these (possible several) complexes
could become if they could clip our area. Something to watch,
otherwise it remains pretty typical for summer next week with
highs in the mid 90`s and max heat indices in the 103-108 range
thanks to slightly drier air at the sfc. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Lingering light rain may persist at the terminals through around 01-
02Z with lightning activity coming to an end at issuance time. Any
remaining storms over the interior should diminish shortly as well,
giving way to mainly VFR conditions through the period. Another
round of showers and storms is expected during the afternoon and
evening hours on Friday, moving from northwest to southeast. A few
storms may be strong to severe, producing wind gusts of 30-50 knots
and IFR or lower conditions. Winds will be generally light
northwesterly, shifting to south-southwesterly near the coast at
around 5-10 knots Friday afternoon. JGC/98

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

A light to occasionally moderate mostly westerly flow pattern will
persists late this week into next week. Winds are expected to shift
northwesterly late each night and then southwesterly in the
afternoon. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can
be expected each morning with locally higher seas and winds near
storms. KLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  95  74  95 /  20  50  20  10
Pensacola   77  93  77  93 /   0  40  20  20
Destin      79  91  78  91 /  10  20  40  20
Evergreen   72  96  71  96 /  20  40  40  10
Waynesboro  73  98  72  98 /  20  30  20   0
Camden      73  95  72  95 /  30  30  30   0
Crestview   73  96  72  95 /  10  40  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$