882
FXUS64 KMOB 232336
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
536 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR conditions prevail through Sunday, except for a few patches of
late night fog. Calm or light and variable winds tonight become
south to southwest around 5 knots on Sunday. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday Night)
Issued at 252 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Surface high pressure over the Mississippi River moves east over
the Southeast, with a light flow becoming easterly by Sunday
morning. With a cold airmass in place over the region, combined with
efficient radiational cooling, unseasonably cold temperatures are
expected tonight. A warmup is expected for Sunday night as moisture
levels increase, especially over western portions of the forecast
area. For tonight, temperatures a bit warmer than last night are
expected as a slightly more moist airmass (precipitable h20 values
rising from 0.3" to 0.5") moves over the forecast area today,
ranging from the mid to upper 30s along and north of a Waynesboro to
Crestview line around 40 to near 50 south of the line to the coast.
Consensus was to bump the operational NBM down a bit, so these temps
reflect that downward nudge. Conditions are again right for frost
formation tonight along and north of Highway 84, with a Frost
Advisory issued. With southerly flow becoming more organized Sunday
into Sunday night and precipitable h20 values rising into the 0.7"
to 0.85" range by sunrise Monday, low temperatures above seasonal
norms return. Low temperatures are expected to range from the upper
40s northeast of a Butler to Luverne line to the upper 50s to around
60 south of I-10 to the coast. High temperatures Sunday are expected
to rise to well above seasonal norms under sunny skies. Upper 60s
over northern most portions of the forecast area to low 70s south of
Highway 84.

A light flow is expected along the coast, creating a low risk of rip
current on area beaches into Monday.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

For the local area, zonal flow aloft is expected to continue
through much of the period. To our north, an upper-level shortwave
trough will pass across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. This
will help to send a weakening cold front through the local area,
eventually stalling over the northern Gulf by Tuesday night. The
stall will be short-lived, however, as the front will lift back to
the north on Wednesday. By Thursday, shortwave energy will pass
overhead as an upper-level longwave trough begins to amplify and
dig into the eastern US. As it evolves, another much stronger cold
front will quickly push southeastward, sweeping through the local
area during the Thursday evening/night timeframe. High pressure
builds in behind the front, allowing for a much colder and drier
airmass to filter in from the north.

After a warm and dry day on Monday, with highs in the upper 70s, low
rain chances return to the forecast by Monday night into Tuesday
morning as the first cold front moves across the local area. With
upper-level support quickly moving away from the front, the band of
showers associated with the front will be trending downward in
coverage as the front moves through. Therefore, the highest PoPs
(around 30 percent) will be seen over our northwestern zones,
lowering to a 20 percent rain chance for our southeastern zones. We
will dry out by Tuesday afternoon after the front passes.
Temperatures will also briefly dip, with highs ranging from the mid
60s northwest to the mid 70s southeast. Lows Tuesday night will drop
into the 40s over inland counties, and the 50s for coastal counties.
The next chance of showers, and a few thunderstorms, comes on
Thursday (Thanksgiving), as shortwave energy passes overhead
(leading to weak diffluence aloft), a modest 850mb jet develops over
northern to central MS/AL/GA, and the stronger cold front approaches
from the northwest. At this time, the overall severe risk looks low
due to weak instability and that the best forcing looks to be
displaced to our north and east, but we will keep an eye on trends
over the coming days. After warming into the low to mid 70s on
Wednesday and Thursday, highs will plummet into the upper 50s to low
60s by Friday and Saturday in the wake of the cold front. Lows will
also tumble into the 30s by Friday night. /96

MARINE...
Issued at 252 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Light and variable flow will transition to a light onshore
through the weekend. A weak front will stall near the coast Monday
night into Tuesday, bringing offshore flow temporarily to area
waters. Onshore flow returns Wednesday, but a strong cold front
crossing area waters late Thursday into Thursday night will bring
moderate to strong offshore flow back to area waters for the end of
the week. No impacts are expected through most of the forecast. A
Small Craft Advisory may be needed Thursday night into the weekend.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      43  72  57  78  61  72  52  74 /   0   0   0   0  10  20   0  10
Pensacola   48  71  62  77  65  74  57  74 /   0   0   0   0  10  20   0  10
Destin      51  72  63  76  66  75  59  74 /   0   0   0   0  10  20   0  10
Evergreen   34  71  50  78  58  69  47  73 /   0   0   0   0  20  10   0  10
Waynesboro  36  72  52  78  55  66  45  73 /   0   0   0   0  30   0   0  10
Camden      34  69  50  76  56  67  43  71 /   0   0   0   0  30  10   0  10
Crestview   35  72  51  78  59  75  49  75 /   0   0   0  10  10  20   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CST Sunday for ALZ051>060.

FL...None.
MS...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CST Sunday for MSZ067.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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