915
FXUS64 KMOB 190111
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
811 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS) Issued at XXXXXX

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 228 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

An upper trof over the eastern states begins to move off into the
western Atlantic Thursday night while an upper ridge which
extends from the south central states to the Great Lakes region
inches eastward and strengthens a bit. A weak and diffuse surface
trof over the coastal counties may allow for some spotty showers
and storms to develop this afternoon. Dry conditions are otherwise
expected through Thursday night as drier air currently filtering
into interior portions of the area continues into the remainder of
the area. Lows tonight and Thursday night range from the mid 60s
well inland to the lower 70s at the coast. Highs on Thursday will
be around 90. A low risk of rip currents is expected through
Thursday night. /29

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

An upper ridge which extends from the south central states to the
Great Lakes region gradually builds into the area through Sunday
as an upper trof just off the east coast moves well off into the
western Atlantic. A surface ridge over the eastern states
gradually becomes oriented over the northern Gulf coast states
through Sunday, and surface winds over the forecast area gradually
trend from northerly to easterly, with a weak sea breeze
circulation developing near the coast each afternoon. While there
is some gradual improvement in deep layer moisture over the area
through this weekend, subsidence associated with the upper ridge
will likely preclude convective development and have continued
with a dry forecast. An upper trof will advance across the
southern/central Plains on Sunday followed by a longwave trof
evolving over the central states by Tuesday, with the upper ridge
over the forecast region meanwhile being deflected eastward. There
is uncertainty past this point as to whether or not the large
upper trof remains over the central states or advances into the
eastern states, and there is also the potential for a "low
pressure system" to be present somewhere in the Gulf on Wednesday.
At this point, it looks that rain chances remain sufficiently low
enough through Tuesday to keep mention of precip out of the
forecast, then slight chance pops return to the entire area by
Wednesday. Highs on Friday and Saturday will be mostly in the
lower 90s, then highs will be around 90 on Sunday and Monday.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s, and mostly in the mid
80s on Wednesday. Lows typically range from the mid 60s well
inland to the lower 70s near the coast. A low risk of rip currents
is anticipated through this weekend. /29

MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

No impacts are anticipated through Monday, with little (if any)
convective activity. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  91  68  92  70  91  70  90 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   72  90  73  90  73  89  73  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      74  89  74  90  74  88  74  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   66  92  66  92  66  93  66  92 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  66  90  65  91  66  91  66  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      65  89  67  90  66  91  67  90 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   68  91  68  92  67  91  66  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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