260
FXUS64 KMOB 060009
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
609 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

MVFR ceilings will continue to advect northeastward from coastal
Mississippi through this evening along with gradual areas of fog
development. Later tonight, cigs and vsbys should deteriorate
further with IFR and eventually LIFR cigs and potentially vsbys
are expected. The biggest question is with regards to whether or
not low stratus becomes more prevalent than dense fog. Winds at
the top of the moisture layer appear to remain between 10-15kts,
which would favor more stratus vs. fog. Guidance remains mixed
with predominant cloud type, so will maintain a mix of low stratus
and fog overnight through mid morning Thursday. Regardless,
conditions will result in aviation impacts and LIFR conditions
expected. Low stratus and fog will again erode quickly by mid
morning with a return to VFR conditions. Winds will remain light
southerly tonight increasing to 7-10 kts by Thursday afternoon.
/JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025/

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

A weak front moving into the mid south combined with increasing
moisture has allowed isolated showers to develop across interior
areas this afternoon. These showers will come to an end this
evening with another round of patchy dense fog developing. The
fog will start near the coast and spread inland through the
overnight hours. A dense fog advisory is in effect again tonight
until 9 am Thursday. Isolated showers will remain possible on
Thursday under a weak warm air advection regime. Temperatures will
remain well above normal with highs on Thursday climbing into the
mid and upper 70s areawide. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s
and low 60s. /13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Zonal flow aloft continues over the area through Sunday with
continued warm and dry conditions. Upper flow turns southwesterly
early next week as a cold front approaches from the north. the
front stalls north of the area on Monday before a shortwave
moving across the upper midwest pushes the front southward into
the area on Tuesday bringing increased rain chances. The front
lingers across the area on Wednesday, maintaining chances for
rain. Patchy dense fog will likely continue to be an issue at
times through most of the extended term as well, especially during
the overnight and early morning hours. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

A mainly light southerly flow will continue through early next
week. Dense fog is possible over all the bays, sounds, and
nearshore waters each night this week. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      60  75  60  76  60  76  60  78 /  10  20  10  10  10   0   0  10
Pensacola   62  73  63  74  63  74  63  75 /  10  10  10  10  10  10   0   0
Destin      62  73  63  73  64  74  64  74 /  10  10  10  10  10  10   0   0
Evergreen   57  79  59  79  58  81  60  80 /  10  20  10  10  10   0   0  10
Waynesboro  59  79  60  80  59  80  60  78 /  10  20   0  10  10   0   0  10
Camden      58  76  60  78  58  79  60  77 /  10  20  10  20  10  10  10  20
Crestview   58  79  58  79  59  79  60  81 /  10  10  10  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Thursday
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Thursday
     for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Thursday
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Thursday
     for GMZ630>636-650-655.

&&

$$

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