650
FXUS64 KMOB 032342
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
642 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 635 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances increase through the
  upcoming weekend. A few storms could become strong capable of
  producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Isolated flooding from
  intense rainfall rates the primary concerns.

- Waterspouts remain possible any given morning from the pre-dawn
  hours through mid-morning over the marine waters.

- Highest heat index values of 103 to 107 are expected mainly
  Sunday and Monday, locally as high as 110. Heat related
  products may be needed for portions of the area early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The upper ridge over the area will weaken and become more elongated
north of the area through the end of the week. Meanwhile, a weak
easterly wave/weak sfc low will continue to move westward across
the northern Gulf. The deep easterly flow between these systems
will bring increasing moisture into the area with precipitable
water values climbing to 2.4 inches by Friday afternoon. The wave
over the northern Gulf will continue to bring scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms to the marine and coastal areas through
Friday. The combination of the weaker ridge and increased
moisture will bring higher rain chances to the area through
Saturday with scattered to numerous showers and storms each day.
Coverage will be highest offshore at night and inland during the
afternoon and evening hours.

Rain chances continue through early next week as an eastern
states trough digs southward with a weak backdoor front moving
into the area Sunday and stalling through Monday. The front then
dissipates by Tuesday. This will maintain at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening across land
areas and during the morning over the marine area.

Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s Friday and Saturday.
Highs warm into the low to mid 90s by early next week with heat
index values of 105 to 110 for the beginning of next week. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR flight category prevails across the region. A few lingering
showers this evening wane over the next couple hours, with dry
weather expected through most the night for the area. Isolated
showers and storms may get going near the coast prior to daybreak,
mainly along the Florida Panhandle coast into coastal Baldwin
County. Storm chances shift onshore through the morning, becoming
scattered to locally numerous in coverage by the afternoon hours
areawide. Expect reductions in ceiling and visibility by several
flight categories underneath any showers or storms. Winds will
remain generally southerly less than 5 knots this evening, calming
during the overnight hours. Winds turn easterly around 5 to 10
knots during the day Friday. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

A generally light east to southeast flow pattern will become westerly
this weekend. A light southerly flow returns early next week. Rain
chances will also increase through the weekend with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours. A few
waterspouts will be possible each morning. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  90  73  90 /  30  60  20  90
Pensacola   77  89  77  89 /  30  60  40  60
Destin      77  88  78  88 /  30  60  50  60
Evergreen   73  94  72  92 /   0  50  20  70
Waynesboro  73  95  73  93 /  10  40  20  60
Camden      74  94  73  93 /  10  30  20  60
Crestview   73  91  72  91 /  20  60  20  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$