564
FXUS64 KMOB 021709
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1109 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1108 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

 - Cold temperatures in the lower to middle 20s will occur late
   tonight into early Monday morning.

 - Strong winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small
   craft Wednesday night into Thursday and Friday into Friday
   night.

 - A Moderate Rip Current Risk will occur Tuesday night through
   Wednesday as southwesterly winds increase over the Gulf.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1102 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

As a large upper trof moves off into the western Atlantic through
Monday, another large upper trof pattern forms over the eastern
and central CONUS through Tuesday. A series of vigorous embedded
systems lead to the large upper trof pattern becoming oriented
over the eastern CONUS by Thursday, then progressing into the
western Atlantic Thursday night into Saturday. A surface ridge
shifts across the forecast region through Monday, then a surface
low associated with the large upper trof pattern brings a cold
front through the forecast area late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Dry conditions continue through Tuesday morning, then
will have likely to categorical pops shift across the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, with dry conditions developing from
west to east Wednesday afternoon. Instability continues to look
limited and looks to support some embedded storms mainly over the
marine area with the frontal passage.

An extended dry period follows for Thursday through Monday with a
weak cold front meanwhile moving through Friday into Friday
evening. Overnight lows drop into the lower to mid 20s for all but
the immediate coast where upper 20s are expected. A Cold Weather
Advisory remains in effect until 9 am for the coastal counties of
Alabama and the western Florida panhandle due to wind chill values
as low as 20. Wind chill values further inland will be in the
lower 20s, but the criteria for a Cold Weather Advisory over
interior areas is lower and ranges from 11 to 20, which will not
be met. Temperatures moderate going into Tuesday by which time
highs will be in the mid to upper 60s with morning lows in the
30s. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 50s to lower 60s, then
Thursday will have highs in the 50s. Highs on Friday through
Sunday will be mostly in the 60s, then by Monday highs will be
65-70. Lows Wednesday night and Thursday night will be in the
upper 20s to mid 30s, then lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s
Friday night through Sunday night. A low risk of rip currents is
expected through Tuesday with a moderate risk from Tuesday night
through Wednesday. A low risk follows from Wednesday night
through Friday, except for a moderate risk for western Florida
panhandle beaches on Friday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conditions will persist with light westerly winds becoming
southwesterly overnight. Winds will increase tomorrow morning to
around 10 knots gusting to around 20 knots out of the south-
southwest. BB-8

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1102 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

A light westerly flow develops on Monday then becomes a light to
moderate southwesterly flow on Tuesday. Moderate southwesterly winds
Tuesday night become northwest on Wednesday as a cold front moves
through. A moderate to strong northwesterly to northerly flow
follows for Wednesday night into Thursday, diminishes Thursday
night, then becomes a moderate to strong westerly flow on Friday.
A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary for much of
the marine area from Wednesday night through Thursday. Another
Small Craft Advisory may become necessary on Friday into Friday
night. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      38  67  50  61 /   0   0  80  50
Pensacola   41  65  55  61 /   0   0  60  70
Destin      44  65  54  63 /   0   0  60  80
Evergreen   31  68  45  57 /   0   0  90  50
Waynesboro  34  66  43  54 /   0  20  90  20
Camden      33  65  44  53 /   0  10  90  30
Crestview   33  67  49  62 /   0   0  60  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$