222
FXUS64 KMOB 081145
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
645 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 645 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms are possible today with scattered
  to potentially numerous on Sunday.

- Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are expected through mid
  next week.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents may develop at area beaches
  today.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Current forecast remains on track. /22

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

The area is very much under a typical summertime pattern
sandwiched between two upper level highs with one over the Desert
Southwest and the other off the coast of the eastern US. This
leaves us under generally weak southerly upper level flow on the
western periphery of the upper high off the East Coast. PWAT
values have climbed to ~1.85" which is closer to normal values
this time of year.

For Saturday, we once again have high DCAPE of ~1000 J/kg and low
shear which leads to pulse like thunderstorms with lightning,
brief heavy rainfall, and gusty downburst winds as the main
threats. The Bermuda high off to the east will further build
through the end of the weekend and into Monday. PWAT values will
further increase to reach to ~2.0-2.1" by Sunday into the
beginning of next week which is much more typical/slightly above
average. This coincides with higher precipitation chances,
especially Sunday and Monday, with scattered to potentially
numerous showers and thunderstorms for much of the area. As the
ridge moves further overhead next week, PWATs and pops decrease.
Expect the typical summertime isolated to scattered rain chances
focused along the land breeze over marine waters in the morning
which transitions inland with the sea breeze and along any outflow
boundaries in the afternoon.

High temperatures generally stay in the low to mid 90s through the
period with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s each afternoon. Low
temperatures are generally in the low to mid 70s each night with
upper 70s along the coast. Peak heat index values will generally
be within the 100-107 range each afternoon and the diurnally
driven rain chances should prevent any widespread areas exceeding
Heat Advisory criteria through at least mid week.

...BEACH FORECAST...

The rip current risk remains low for all area beaches through
Friday before increasing to a moderate risk for Saturday. Outside
of any storms, surf heights will remain generally 1-2 feet through
mid next week.

SS/97

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms should develop around mid-afternoon. Added VCTS for
all TAF sites from 08/21z through 09/01z. Winds for all TAF sites
will start off light northerly to northeasterly, shifting easterly
by late morning, and then southerly at 5-10 knots by mid-afternoon
as a sea-breeze pushes inland. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 413 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Winds will be variable less than 10 knots over the weekend as a
weakly organized ridge remains across the northern Gulf coast. A
light southerly flow will develop by Sunday evening as a stronger
ridge becomes established across the eastern Gulf, and continues
through Tuesday. Winds will than shift to light southwesterly by
Tuesday night through midweek as the ridge expands westward. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      93  73  91  74 /  20  20  40  10
Pensacola   93  77  89  78 /  20  10  40  10
Destin      91  78  88  79 /  20  20  30  10
Evergreen   94  73  93  72 /  20  20  40  10
Waynesboro  95  73  95  73 /  20  20  40  10
Camden      92  73  91  73 /  20  10  40  10
Crestview   94  73  92  73 /  20  20  60  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$