Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
670 FXUS64 KMOB 212320 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 620 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 A weak upper trough is expected to linger across the southeast US through Sunday, along with a nearly stationary frontal boundary at the surface. Surface observations suggest that this boundary has managed to push into our local area, and is currently sitting just south of the Highway 84 corridor. This front, along with the sea breeze boundary, will serve as a focus for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop along over the next few afternoons. Coverage will then spread across the remainder of the area via outflow boundary collisions. Overall, we are not anticipating any severe weather, but as we typically see with this type of summer pattern, cannot rule out a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty downburst winds and small hail, as well as very heavy rainfall which could lead to minor flooding concerns. By the start of the week, an anomalously strong longwave trough is expected to dig into the eastern half of the CONUS. This will help to send a strong cold front (for late August standards) southward, with it potentially sweeping through our entire local area. If this manages to occur, a much drier and noticably cooler airmass will filter into the area from the north. Rain chances at this point look isolated at best for Monday through midweek. Of course, if the front stalls across the area, then we could see a bit of a wetter week, but the probability of this scenario occurring is rather low at this point. Highs through Tuesday will range from the upper 80s to the mid 90s. By the middle of next week, highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will gradually cool through the period, with low to mid 70s for tonight and tomorrow night, decreasing to the mid to upper 60s by midweek. A Low Risk of rip currents continues through the period. /96 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Outside of showers and storms this evening, VFR flight category prevails through the day Friday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are once again expected Friday, with any showers and storms temporarily reducing ceiling and visibility. Winds will be light and variable tonight through Friday near or less than 5 knots, with areas nearer the coast seeing winds shift out of the south by the afternoon at 5 to 10 knots. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 A general light westerly to southwesterly flow pattern will be in place through the weekend. Winds turn more offshore for the start of the week. No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 89 73 89 71 92 71 93 / 40 70 30 60 20 40 10 20 Pensacola 76 89 76 87 74 90 74 92 / 30 60 30 60 30 40 10 20 Destin 78 88 77 86 77 88 76 91 / 30 60 40 60 30 40 20 20 Evergreen 72 90 70 89 70 92 69 93 / 50 70 40 50 20 30 10 10 Waynesboro 72 90 70 92 69 93 69 94 / 40 50 20 40 10 20 10 10 Camden 72 89 70 90 71 91 69 93 / 40 50 30 40 20 20 10 10 Crestview 72 91 71 88 70 91 70 93 / 40 80 30 70 30 40 10 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob