975
FXUS64 KMOB 111752
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1252 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

 - A strong to marginally severe storm or two can`t be ruled out
   this afternoon and into this evening ahead of a cold front.
   Locally heavy rainfall may also be possible along the immediate
   coastline.

 - Dry weather and above normal high temperatures return to the
   forecast mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

11.17Z water vapor satellite imagery indicates a convectively
active/enhanced area of lightning activity along a piece of southern
stream mid-level energy starting to approach the area from the west.
The deepest convection is aligned from the Mouth of the MS to around
320 miles southwest of the southeast LA coast. This feature is
ejecting east out of the main short-wave mid-level trof that is
moving east over southeast TX. At the surface, a front was
oriented from the Mid-Atlantic southwest to off the southwest
LA/upper TX coast where a frontal wave of low pressure has formed.
As the upper impulse continues sliding eastward today, the front
also eases in across the central Gulf Coast and will provide a
focus for increased ascent for showers and storms to increase in
areal coverage as an east to west belt of environmental
instability, characterized by Mean SBCapes now increased to
1500-2000 J/kg is aligned over the heart of the forecast area.
Radar is beginning to show isolated showers and storms beginning
to breakout over the interior and we anticipate coverage will only
increase further as we progress through the afternoon and
carryover into this evening. This is supported by the latest
11.12Z high resolution short range ensemble solutions of future
40+ dBZ radar echoes filling in and increasing in coverage from
11.20 to 12.00Z and activity lingering into the evening. Late
night-time activity moves southeast of the I-65 corridor with
coverage lowering west of there. Although low-level winds and
lapse rates are rather weak, a few storms could still overachieve
and become marginally severe capable of damaging winds and perhaps
large hail. It`s not out of the question that storms that
organize and move over the same areas will bring heavy rain
potential and a marginal risk of localized flooding.

The front slips southeast across the coastal waters tonight. There
are indications that a chance of showers/perhaps a few storms will
reform along the I-10 corridor Tuesday with the west end of the
southern stream mid-level trof yet to completely pass. The risk of
severe weather Tuesday is minimal to none. A 20% PoP lingers in the
forecast for portions of the coast on Wednesday afternoon before
high pressure moving east over the deep south and southeast US
brings uneventful weather Thursday, continuing into the weekend.

Highs in the 80`s through the period. Lows mostly in the 60`s the
next few nights. The coolest night this period is advertised for Thu
night where lows dip into the lower to mid 50s east of a line from
Waynesboro MS to Crestview FL before moderating again over the
weekend. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail until rain and thunderstorms develop
by late afternoon or early evening, mainly across the southern
half of the area. Any thunderstorms will bring MVFR
ceilings/visibilities and potentially IFR visibilities in the
heaviest rain. Some uncertainty lies in the extent of
thunderstorms near the coast through the late evening and
overnight. Light rain will dissipate from west to east by early to
mid morning on Tuesday, with any remaining MVFR ceilings lifting
to VFR by late morning. Winds should stay light and variable
through tonight and become northerly at 4-8 knots by morning, away
from convection.

98/97/10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A cold front makes passage tonight resulting in a light north to
northeast flow becoming more easterly Tuesday. Winds become
variable, primarily offshore flow by mid-week before shifting back
to onshore Friday, through the weekend and remain light with high
pressure positioned to the east. Seas generally 2 feet or less.
/10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      65  85  64  86 /  40   0   0  10
Pensacola   68  83  68  83 /  50  10   0  20
Destin      69  82  70  81 /  40  20  10  10
Evergreen   62  85  62  86 /  20   0   0  10
Waynesboro  60  83  60  85 /  10   0   0   0
Camden      60  82  60  84 /  10   0   0  10
Crestview   65  87  63  87 /  40  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$