685
FXUS64 KMOB 082322
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
622 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

An inverted upper trough forming over the western Gulf and lower
Mississippi River will gradually shift westward and evolve into a
closed low pressure area through the weekend as an upper high
pressure ridge builds into our region from the east. A second
inverted upper trough will form over the eastern Gulf on Sunday
and also gradually shift westward and then lift northwestward over
the lower Mississippi River through the first half of next week.
Light easterly winds will continue through the weekend as a
surface ridge remains across the southeast states. These easterly
winds will then shift more southerly early next week as the
surface ridge weakens due to the presence of the second upper
trough. Interesting that the NAM12 develops a weak low pressure
area reflected at the surface by Monday morning south of our
coastline that bears watching.

We will likely see a gradual uptick in shower and thunderstorm
activity over the weekend into early next week. A typical diurnal
pattern will continue, with scattered at times numerous daily
showers and thunderstorms returning over the weekend, followed by
numerous to definite daily showers and thunderstorms Monday and
Tuesday. Pulse thunderstorms are possible each afternoon given
ample instability and minimal shear, so we can`t rule out a few
strong storms with gusty winds. Frequent lightning and heavy bouts
of rain are likely as well.

Temperatures remain steady over the next seven days, with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows should be in the lower to middle
70s interior areas, and upper 70s along the coast.

Beach Forecast - The rip current risk should remain LOW for the
most part, but we will monitor to see if the easterly winds right
along the coast increase to near 15 mph over the weekend. If so,
a MODERATE rip current risk could occur. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

VFR conditions expected through the overnight hours. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and south of the Gulf
coast Saturday, then shift inland during the day. Isolated to
scattered convection will drop general VFR conditions to low/mid
MVFR levels, along with bringing locally gusty and variable
winds. Outside of the convection, a light, generally easterly flow
is expected overnight, increasing to 5 to 10 knots during the day
Saturday, around 10 to 15 knots are expected along the coast.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

A light to occasional moderate easterly flow through Monday will
shift to a light onshore flow Tuesday through midweek. No impacts
expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near
thunderstorms. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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