689
FXUS64 KMOB 020414
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1114 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

 - Some strong storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening.

 - Heat Risk Concerns: Heat indices of around 100 expected Tuesday
   over the southern portion of the area.

 - HIGH risk of rip currents Wednesday through at least Friday
   for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

An outflow boundary is currently the process of moving well
offshore, with dry conditions expected to develop during the rest
of the night. Surface winds briefly become light and variable
overnight before turning northerly by Tuesday morning as a weak
cold front moves through. The frontal boundary returns to the
immediate coast Tuesday afternoon, then a back-door cold front
pushes through from the east Tuesday night in response to a large
surface high building over the eastern states. A positively tilted
upper trof over the eastern states and an upper ridge over the
central states will maintain a northwesterly flow aloft over the
region on Tuesday, and another MCS may develop upstream and move
into the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. MLCAPE values of
1500-2500 J/kg are expected by Tuesday afternoon while shear
values look to be low with 0-6 km bulk shear values remaining
mostly 20 knots or less. DCAPE values currently look to be less
than 500 J/kg, so with this environment convection should remain
below severe limits. That said, will mention some strong storms
are possible for Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours due to
the potential MCS.

Have gone with chance to likely pops for Tuesday. Isolated to
scattered convection is possible over the southern portion of the
area on Wednesday in the wake of the back-door front with
otherwise dry conditions as an upper ridge builds into the region.
Dry conditions are expected Thursday, then rain chances trend to
slight chance to chance pops by Saturday as a return flow is
established and the upper ridge weakens and shifts off to the east
a bit. Mainly chance pops are expected for Sunday. Highs on
Tuesday range from the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat index
values of around 100 over the southern portion of the area. Highs
on Wednesday will be cooler and around 80 then gradually trend to
the mid to upper 80s by Sunday. Lows Tuesday night range from the
mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s near the coast then Wednesday
night will be cooler with lows ranging from the upper 50s well
inland to the mid/upper 60s at the immediate coast. Overnight lows
gradually trend warmer to the lower to mid 70s by Sunday night. A
moderate risk of rip currents is expected Tuesday for the western
Florida panhandle with a low risk for the Alabama beaches. A High
Risk of rip currents is then expected for all beaches Wednesday
through Friday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Numerous storms mainly across interior southwest Alabama, south
central Alabama and a portion of the western Florida panhandle are
expected to diminish later this evening leaving mostly dry
conditions. Scattered storms develop across the area again on
Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon hours. IFR/MVFR conditions
and gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms. Outside of
storms, variable winds 5 knots or less tonight become
northwesterly on Tuesday, with a switch to a southwesterly
direction near the coast in the afternoon. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow persists today.
Winds shift to northerly and then easterly Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, strengthening to moderate to occasionally
strong flow through the end of the week. Seas increase to 5 to 7
feet by mid week. Southeasterly flow develops Friday through much
of the weekend. Expect locally higher winds and seas near
thunderstorms. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  91  70  80 /  70  60  60  30
Pensacola   76  90  71  81 /  70  60  60  30
Destin      76  88  71  82 /  70  40  70  30
Evergreen   72  90  66  80 /  40  60  60  10
Waynesboro  72  90  68  80 /  60  40  40  10
Camden      70  87  66  80 /  20  40  40  10
Crestview   72  93  66  81 /  60  60  70  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$