716
FXUS64 KMOB 290537
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1237 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- Rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
  expected through the weekend, especially near the coast. Hazards
  will include intense rain rates leading to localized flooding
  and brief gusty winds. For marine areas, waterspouts and locally
  strong to severe wind gusts will be possible this weekend.

- Heat and humidity will continue through next week. Peak heat
  indices will range from around 95-100 this weekend, increasing
  to around 103-110 by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Starting out with late tonight, well, focus is pretty obvious
looking at the KMOB radar loop at a distinct surface low spinning
across offshore marine areas. NHC highlights this area with a 0%
chance of tropical development over the next 2 days, 10% over the
next 7 days. Looking at proximity model soundings overnight
tonight for KMOB highlights many key features harming any
concerning development with this low, namely, very dry mid-level
air. RAP H5 RH shows this strong dry air intrusion well on the
eastern periphery of the 594dm ridge parked across the western US,
pulling south into the northern Gulf. Additionally, increasing
850-200mb shear will continue to take it`s toll on any vertical
stacking aloft likely keeping this as a weak surface low. Having
said that, we`ll see this low provide a few hazards to monitor
this morning throughout the day. Starting with the marine areas,
ample marine instability and surface vorticity supplied by the low
itself will be enough to provide enhanced shower/storm coverage.
Weak 0-1km bulk shear, enhanced low-level RH, low LCL`s, suitable
0-3km lapse rates and focused vorticity along any outflow
boundary interactions will support another notable waterspout risk
this morning. Enhanced sfc vorticity from the low could also
provide a few stronger waterspouts, similar to what we saw Friday
morning. Otherwise, we`ll continue to see squalls/bands of
showers/storms sweeping across the coast and marine areas
throughout the morning and through the day. Meanwhile for land
areas, as we remain parked underneath general weakness aloft
meaning no real synoptic-scale suppression at play, combined with
diurnal heating/destabilization, meaning we`ll see a few
shower/storms pop through the afternoon/evening. However, best
coverage and lifting mechanism will come from boundaries sweeping
from east to west providing best lift to perhaps form some brief
squalls of showers and storms, moreso confined closer to the
coast.

Going into Saturday night/Sunday morning - will need to keep an
eye on coastal areas, as this low drifts west and will enhance
differential friction convergence, or where winds are more
southeasterly (stronger/frictionless) over water to more easterly
(weaker/greater friction) over land. This could provide a targeted zone
of training showers/storms overnight leading to areas of flash
flooding. While confidence is rather low at this time (mainly on
placement), and highly depends on many smaller-scale/mesoscale
ingredients to align just right, will keep a close eye on it.
Wouldn`t be surprised we are greeted with a long period of
training thunderstorms near or across coastal areas overnight Sat
night into Sunday - something to monitor.

Going into next week, the ridge out west drifts east with time,
parking over the mid MS valley region helping to enhance easterly
flow aloft. Our location south of the ridge, away from greater
mid-level suppression will promote daily scattered shower/storm
chances along developing seabreeze boundaries. Will keep an eye on
any easterly impulses moving across the Bahamas into the Gulf, as
some long-range models try to re-ignite what was once Dolly as it
gets into a slightly more favorable Gulf environment. Something
we`ll continue to monitor.

Additionally, temperatures do warm up going into next week with
highs back in the mid 90`s. Max heat indices are looking like
they will climb back in the 103-110 degree range. However,
confidence on the higher end is lower, as forecast long-range NBM
dewpoints are typically overinflated by not capturing a more
realistic daily PBL mixing regime. Regardless, could reach at
least at or near Heat Advisory criteria a few days. Will keep an
eye on it. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place at issuance time. In
general, this should remain prevalent over the next 24 hours. Some
patchy fog may attempt to develop over interior portions of south
central Alabama during the overnight hours, temporarily bringing
reductions in visibility to IFR of lower. Any fog that does manage
to develop should dissipate a little after sunrise. Another round
of scattered showers and storms are expected to develop today,
mainly over coastal counties during the afternoon. Expect brief
reductions in visibilites and ceilings in some of the heavier
activity. Light and variable winds should become a light
northeasterly flow by the mid morning hours. Winds should turn
more easterly to southeasterly by the afternoon, increasing to
around 10-15 knots along the coast. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Main focus across marine areas will be a weak surface low generally
stationed well offshore in the 20-60nm zones, providing enhanced
shower and storm coverage this morning through tonight through the
day on Saturday. Main risks will be locally gusty winds in any
squalls, likely reaching 34kts at times and waterspouts. Activity
will persist through the day and into the day on Sunday, with
moderate (10-15kt) easterly flow outside of any thunderstorm
activity. This weak low likely drifts west with time, establishing a
greater southeasterly/onshore flow regime remaining light to
moderate at 10-15kts. Waves/seas respond slightly in the 2-3ft range
but lack of distinct long-duration fetch will limit any enhanced
wave activity, but will be elevated/enhanced in any locally strong
or severe storms. KLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      89  72  88  73 /  30  50  70  20
Pensacola   87  75  87  76 /  40  70  60  40
Destin      85  75  88  77 /  60  60  70  30
Evergreen   91  69  90  68 /  30  20  40  10
Waynesboro  94  71  91  70 /  20  10  50  10
Camden      91  71  90  71 /  40  20  20  10
Crestview   88  70  90  70 /  40  30  60  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$