545
FXUS64 KMOB 261726
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1226 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

  - The heat will continue to build into early and middle parts of
    the upcoming week with some locations nearing or breaking
    daily record highs. Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Warnings
    will likely be necessary for much of the area.

  - Daily afternoon and evening scattered thunderstorm chances
    increase in the middle to latter part of the week, but it will
    still remain hot.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

No significant changes necessary as the forecast remains on track
this morning. 07/mb

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

An upper trof oriented near/along the East Coast remains
essentially in place through Tuesday while a large upper ridge
remains centered over the central states. A surface ridge over
the western Gulf into the ArkLaTex region will promote a primarily
west to northwest surface flow over the forecast area from Sunday
through Tuesday with a sea breeze developing near the coast each
afternoon. Isolated convective development is possible on Sunday
and Monday as a series of shortwaves move across the region within
a northwest flow aloft, along with the sea breeze potentially
leading to some development. A few storms may also occur on
Tuesday though have left pops out for now as coverage looks
limited. Highs on Sunday will be mostly in the mid 90s then highs
on Monday will be in the mid to upper 90s. Tuesday will be even
hotter, with highs ranging from the upper 90s to around 100.

Heat index values on Sunday range from 100-105 over interior
southwest Alabama and south central Alabama, with values of
105-109 over southeast Mississippi to along the coastal counties.
Per coordination with adjacent offices, will hold off on issuance
of a Heat Advisory for this latter portion and defer to the next
shift. With the progressively hotter temperatures on Monday and
Tuesday, an Excessive Heat Watch/Warning will likely become
necessary for most of the area. For Wednesday into Saturday, the
eastern states upper trof amplifies and retrogrades to encompass
the eastern third of the CONUS, and a southerly surface flow
becomes established. Rain chances trend higher from Wednesday
onward, and while Wednesday will be another hot day with highs
ranging from 95-100, temperatures slowly moderate with highs on
Saturday expected to be in the lower 90s.

As noted by the previous shifts, record or near record highs are
possible from Sunday on through Wednesday. Here is a table of the
current records and our forecast values:

Sunday, July 26

Mobile Record High: 98 (1983, 1912) / Forecast: 96
Pensacola Record High: 98 (1990) / Forecast: 96

Monday, July 27

Mobile Record High: 99 (1968, 1875) / Forecast: 98
Pensacola Record High: 98 (1970) / Forecast: 98

Tuesday, July 28

Mobile Record High: 100 (1968) / Forecast: 100
Pensacola Record High: 98 (1993) / Forecast: 99

Wednesday, July 29

Mobile Record High: 100 (1877) / Forecast: 99
Pensacola Record High: 100 (1986) / Forecast: 98

A low risk of rip currents is anticipated on Sunday for the
Alabama beaches, while a moderate risk is in effect for the
western Florida panhandle beaches. A moderate risk then follows
for all beaches from Sunday night through Monday night. For
Tuesday, a low risk is anticipated for Alabama beaches with a
moderate risk for the western Florida panhandle beaches. For
Wednesday, a moderate risk is anticipated for all beach areas. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. West to
northwest winds 5 to 10 knots expected over most of the forecast
area. Winds closer to the coast will see a shift in afternoon
winds to more south to southwesterly as a seabreeze develops along
the coast and moves inland.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A diurnal wind pattern is expected through much of the week.
Waterspouts are possible each morning near the coastline. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      97  77  97  77 /  10   0  10  10
Pensacola   96  79  98  80 /  10  10  10  20
Destin      94  81  94  81 /  20  10  30  20
Evergreen   94  75  96  75 /  20  10  20  20
Waynesboro  96  76  99  76 /  10  10  10  10
Camden      91  76  95  76 /  30   0  30  20
Crestview   97  76  99  77 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for ALZ051>053-055-
     056-059-060-261>266.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>060-261-
     262.

     Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for ALZ263>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for FLZ201>206.

     Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$