974
FXUS64 KMOB 020021
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
621 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

  - Moderate to strong winds over the marine area could create
    hazardous conditions for small craft Friday night into
    Saturday.

  - The rip current risk will steadily increase Friday evening
    into Saturday, potentially becoming a High risk for life
    threatening rip currents Friday night into Saturday.

  - A low end threat for strong to severe thunderstorms is
    possible from near daybreak Saturday morning into Saturday
    afternoon for much of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

For the start of the period, two southern stream upper-level
shortwaves are expected to pass across the local area; the first
on Friday afternoon/evening and the second late Saturday morning
into the early afternoon. As these two shortwaves move overhead,
a weak surface low pressure system attempts to develop over the
southeast US Friday night into Saturday. This low will push into
the western Atlantic by Saturday night, helping to bring an
associated cold front through the area.

Dry conditions are expected to continue through Friday morning. By
the afternoon, rain chances will start to increase as the first
shortwave approaches and passes overhead. This shortwave will help
to advect in a plume of deep-layer moisture from the west,
increasing PWATs from around 0.5 inches Friday morning to around 1.2-
1.5 inches by the afternoon. This, along with adequate height falls,
should allow for isolated to scattered rain to develop during the
afternoon hours. Rainfall should remain light and no thunderstorms
are anticipated with this first round due to a lack of
instability/poor lapse rates. We could see a brief lull in activity
Friday evening as the first shortwave moves passed us.

The second shortwave looks to pass over the local area sometime
late Saturday morning/early Saturday afternoon, with rain chances
likely increasing during the early morning hours as it
approaches. To start, guidance suggests that we should still be
rather stable as shower activity picks up a little after midnight.
Throughout the morning hours, we should start to destabilize as
lapse rates begin to steepen and especially once diurnal heating
commences after sunrise. This should allow for convection to
intensify over time, and with deep layer shear up at around 40
knots during the morning hours, increasing to nearly 50 knots by
the afternoon, this could result in the organization a few strong
to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds. Modeled
soundings/hodographs also suggest long, straightline hodographs,
ample CAPE in the hail growth zone, and weak storm relative
inflow, suggesting that storms with a deep enough updraft could
support a large hail threat. As we get closer to the coast,
modeled hodographs gain some curvature in the lower levels, with
0-1km SRH values up to as high as 150 m2/s2 in spots. This paired
with the aforementioned weak storm relative inflow, and 0-3km CAPE
values increasing to around 100-150 J/kg, could result in a few
mini-spinny type storms resulting in a limited tornado threat over
coastal counties. With all that being said, and although the
environment seems rather supportive of severe weather, the biggest
question that is keeping the severe threat limited at this time
is the overall strength and timing of the shortwave aloft. If the
shortwave is a little quicker and weaker, there will be more of a
mismatch between the better forcing and the favorable environment
for severe weather, leading to a lower risk (or potentially no
risk at all). A stronger, yet slower shortwave would yield a
better overlap of forcing and the favorable environment, leading
to an increased risk. Right now, we have a Marginal Risk of severe
weather for areas along and east of I-65 on Saturday. We will
monitor trends closely as it gets closer. Storm chances should
decrease from west to east by mid to late Saturday afternoon after
the shortwave axis passes overhead.

After the front passes through, high pressure builds in, allowing
for a drier and slightly cooler airmass to filter in from the north
for Sunday and Monday. Highs will rise into the 60s both days, with
lows Sunday night dropping into the upper 30s inland to the mid 40s
along the coast. We gradually warm into the low to mid 70s for highs
and 50s for lows by midweek as the high slides into the western
Atlantic. A Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through Friday
afternoon. The risk quickly increases to High by late Friday evening
as onshore flow strengthens and surf builds out ahead of the front.
This High Risk continues through Saturday before dropping to a
Moderate Risk Saturday night and eventually a Low Risk by Sunday. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

A general light to moderate westerly flow will continue
through tonight. Southwesterly winds develop on Friday and
strengthens to a moderate to strong flow through Saturday. Winds
shift out of the northwest late Saturday as a cold front moves
through. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for our local Gulf
waters from 6 PM Friday through 6 PM Saturday, and for Mobile Bay
and the Mississippi Sound from 6 PM Friday through 6 AM Saturday. The
offshore flow diminishes on Sunday then becomes southeasterly on
Monday. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      48  70  61  74 /   0  20  60  60
Pensacola   52  69  63  72 /   0  20  60  80
Destin      54  69  62  71 /   0  20  60  80
Evergreen   42  70  57  72 /   0  30  70  80
Waynesboro  44  69  58  71 /   0  30  70  40
Camden      43  67  57  69 /   0  30  80  60
Crestview   42  70  57  73 /   0  20  60  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday evening through Saturday
     afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday evening through Saturday
     afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 AM CST Saturday for
     GMZ630>632.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$