517
FXUS64 KMOB 061724
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1224 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Mid to high level flow is has become diffluent over the southeast
with upper ridge centered over the western Gulf and a broad trof
migrating eastward off the east coast. At the surface, high
pressure over the central FL Peninsula was nosing westward while a
weak surface trof lingers over the southeast. Deep environmental
moisture is in place over the central Gulf coast where PWATs 1.6
to 1.8". As the environment has destabilized with SBCAPES 3000 to
3500 J/KG and considering the deep layer moisture profile,
forecasters are seeing the development of isolated to scattered
showers mostly confined, late in the morning, to Baldwin county
eastward across the western FL Peninsula. It is expected we will
continue to see scattered shower/storm development through the
remainder of the day and expanding over the interior as mid-level
impulses caught up in the west-northwest flow aloft pass east over
the region. Some of the storms could become locally strong, with
brief gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief heavy downpours
but the overall severe weather risk appears minimal. /10

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Now Through Saturday Night...

The upper ridge over northern Mexico, south Texas, the Gulf, and
portions of the Deep South will remain through the period as a
series of perturbations pass over our region along the northeast
periphery of the ridge. A low-level ridge will persist from the
Atlantic across the Gulf, maintaining light southwesterly winds
across our area. Adequate moisture will be available for at least
isolated showers and thunderstorms both days as precipitable
waters values hover close to 1.8 inches. Therefore, the summer
diurnal pattern continues through the period. Other than some
lingering showers and storms spilling over through the early-
evening hours, dry weather conditions will occur during the
overnight hours. A High Risk of rip currents will continue through
this afternoon, followed by a Moderate risk in the forecast over
the weekend.

Temperatures increase as we finish off the week, with highs today
and Saturday ranging from 90 to 95 degrees interior areas, around
90 degrees closer to the coast, with mid 80s at the beaches and
barrier islands. The interior temps could be as high as 4 to 6
degrees above normal for this time of year. Apparent temperatures
(heat indices) should range from the upper 90s to as high as 105
degrees across the entire area. Low temperatures tonight will be
in the lower to middle 70s inland, with upper middle 70s along the
coast. These temps are around 6 to 11 degrees above normal. /22

Sunday Through Thursday...

A very active pattern is expected through next week as an upper-
level ridge gets shunted southwestward towards the south central
US/northern Mexico in response to an upper trough developing over
the Great Lakes region. Although we remain in a general
northwesterly to westerly flow pattern aloft, multiple embedded
shortwaves are expected to push across the area throughout the
period. These shortwaves, paired with deep, rich moisture in
place, as well as diffluent flow in the upper- levels, will lead
to multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the
entire period. The timing of each individual shortwave is rather
difficult to pin down this far out due to discrepancies in
guidance, however, at this point we are anticipating the highest
coverage of showers and storms to likely occur during the
afternoon and into the evening hours each day thanks to daytime
heating, with storms initially developing along the sea breeze and
residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. With that being
said, storms could very well persist into the overnight hours,
depending on how each shortwave evolves. As we get closer and we
start receiving hi-res guidance, we will be able to fine-tune
timing. One thing we will also have to monitor throughout this
period is the development, organization, and progression of
upstream storms that develop over the Southern Plains in response
to the train of shortwaves. If storms are able to strengthen and
organize, would not be surprised to see one or more MCS`s move
across the Deep South and potentially push into our local area,
especially during the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe when the
shortwaves aloft are more robust. We will keep an eye on trends
over the coming days. Sunday will be our warmest day of the long
term period, with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows only
dropping into the low to mid 70s, with upper 70s along the coast.
Temperatures next week will be a couple degrees cooler due to
cloud cover and higher convective coverage. Highs will be in the
upper 80s to low 90s and lows will range from the upper 60s inland
to the mid 70s along the coast. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Isolated to scattered shra/tsra anticipated through the remainder
of the afternoon, generally moving easterly at around 10kts. CIGS
potentially down briefly with passage of shra/tsra, otherwise
bases at mid levels and VFR categories. Winds generally southwest
and light. /10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

A light to moderate southwesterly flow will persist through early
next week, and there will be an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
activity early next week. Overall, low impactful weather is
anticipated for small craft operators outside of any storms where
winds and seas will be locally higher. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  92  75  93  73  90  73  88 /  10  20   0  50  60  70  70  80
Pensacola   78  90  79  91  77  88  77  88 /  10  40  10  50  70  70  70  70
Destin      79  90  80  90  78  88  78  88 /  20  40  20  50  70  70  70  70
Evergreen   73  94  74  93  71  89  70  88 /  10  40  10  70  70  80  70  90
Waynesboro  73  93  72  91  70  88  69  85 /  10  20  10  70  60  80  70  80
Camden      73  92  74  88  70  85  68  83 /  10  30  30  80  60  80  70  80
Crestview   73  93  74  93  72  90  72  89 /  10  50  10  70  70  80  70  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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