787
FXUS64 KMOB 042346
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
646 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Now through Monday...

Warm dry conditions will persist into the
weekend ahead of an approaching system on Sunday that could bring
a round of strong to severe storms Sunday midday. With an upper
ridge in place over the southwestern Atlantic overall conditions
the next 48 hours appear to be mostly dry as subsidence will reign
supreme across the area. A rather deep upper trough will be
slowly inching eastward across Texas into the mid-south and
Mississippi Valley by this weekend. As this upper trough slowly
inches eastward, our massive upper ridge will slowly erode from
the west as deep southwesterly flow overspreads the area. Moisture
will continue to gradually improve from west to east and a few
isolated warm advection showers may be possible across
southeastern Mississippi tomorrow.

The main event arrives on Sunday as the large upper trough enters
our area from the west. A series of shortwaves are expected to
progress through the deeper southwesterly flow which will allow
for a surface cold front to gradually sneak into the area. The
first shortwave looks to arrive sometime Saturday night across
Mississippi then quickly lift out by Sunday early morning. The
second shortwave likely doesn`t arrive until Sunday evening into
the overnight. The timing of the two shortwaves will likely play
a big role in how much we actually see in this event. With the
first wave exiting prior to the front reaching our area and the
next wave arriving later when the front may be exiting out area,
you can quickly see the puzzle pieces for more widespread problems
not lining up correctly. As a result, would expect a weakening
line to enter our area from the west and gradually weaken as it
slowly pushes through the area Sunday afternoon. As the front
slowly lays out more west to east, the second shortwave will
likely arrive leading to a more overrunning precipitation Sunday
night into Monday along the immediate coastline before everything
pushes out Monday afternoon into the evening.

Looking at the severe potential for sunday and really does not
look that great overall. As mentioned above, the overall timing of
the best ascent does not favor our area at all and despite
sufficient kinematics with a 30-40 knot 850 mb jet and rather deep
instability, the lazy strung out nature of the upper trough well
likely results in rather lazy storms to be honest. However, you
cannot ignore the fact of storms in an unstable environment with
some, albeit weakening, shear during the afternoon could possibly
produce some damaging winds. The best chances look to be mid-
morning across our far northwest when upper support is best or
across areas east of I-65 and around highway 84 during the early
afternoon when instability is maximized. One thing to watch during
the late afternoon into the evening hours is the potential for
heavy rainfall. This threat will likely be maximized closer to
the coast as the front lays out more west to east and training
can occur ahead of the second shortwave Sunday night. While this
is not a major signal; 1 to 3 inches of rain across areas that saw
a decent amount of rain last week could result in some localized
flooding. On top of the heavy rain and storms, expect dangerous
beach conditions with high surf and a high risk of rip currents to
continue through Sunday into Monday as southerly flow persists.

Temperatures will be warm the next couple days with highs in the
low to mid 80s on Saturday and upper 70s on Sunday with the more
widespread cloud cover. Lows will continue to be muggy as deep
moisture has pushed dewpoints into the 70s resulting in rather
uncomfortable lows each night. Don`t worry though as relief in
the way of cooler temperatures arrives behind the front Monday
night. BB-8

Monday night through Friday...

The upper-level trough pushes to our east through midweek. In its
wake, a northwesterly flow pattern aloft will be in place through
the remainder of the period. At the surface, high pressure builds in
behind the cold front which is forecast to pass through the area
Sunday night, allowing for a cooler, drier airmass to filter into
the region. Lows Monday and Tuesday nights will dip into the 40s
across the area, although a few upper 30s cannot be ruled out
inland. Highs on Tuesday will top out in the upper 60s to low 70s,
although a mid 60s cannot be ruled out inland. These temperatures
are about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. We gradually warm above
normal through the remainder of the period, with lows in the low to
mid 50s Thursday night, and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on
Friday. No rain is anticipated through the period. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

A scattered to broken cloud deck, with ceilings generally around
800-1500 feet spreads across much of the local region at issuance
time. Throughout the evening and into the overnight hours, IFR
ceilings should become prevalent, with a few spots near the coast
dropping to LIFR. Some very patchy fog may also attempt to develop
over coastal counties which could bring visibilities down to
MVFR. Any fog that does manage to develop will dissipate after
sunrise and ceilings should slowly rise to low-end MVFR by the
late morning hours. Breezy southeasterly to southerly winds will
continue through the period. Gusts during the day on Saturday
could reach up to 25-30 knots in spots. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

A moderate to occasionally strong southerly flow continues
through Saturday. Strongest winds will continue to be over the
western marine zones through Saturday. As a cold front approaches
the marine area Saturday night, stronger winds will spread east
across the eastern marine zones and seas will increase to around 7
feet offshore. Therefore, the SCA has been extended eastward over
the Gulf waters for Saturday and Sunday. A cold front will move
across the marine area on Sunday night with a moderate to
occasionally strong northerly flow developing in its wake for early
next week. DS/12 /22


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  81  70  78  53  68  45  72 /   0  20  40  90  60  30   0   0
Pensacola   71  79  72  79  58  70  49  69 /   0   0  10  80  90  60   0   0
Destin      70  78  71  78  62  70  51  71 /   0   0   0  70  90  70  10   0
Evergreen   68  86  69  80  54  67  42  69 /   0  10  20  90  80  40   0   0
Waynesboro  71  84  67  75  48  65  42  69 /   0  40  70  90  30  10   0   0
Camden      68  86  67  77  50  64  43  66 /   0  20  30  90  60  20   0   0
Crestview   65  83  68  80  59  70  43  71 /   0   0   0  80  90  60   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ630>632-650-
     670.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 PM CDT Sunday for
     GMZ655.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 6 PM CDT Sunday for
     GMZ675.

&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob