899
FXUS64 KMOB 110601
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
101 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

 - Hot and humid conditions return with heat indices of 100-107
   this weekend.

 - Risk for rip currents increases to MODERATE today through the
   weekend for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

 - Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases significantly
   early next week bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and
   localized flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Mostly hot and dry weather conditions prevail today into Friday as
upper ridging remains dominant, with perhaps an isolated shower or
storm either day along the northward advancing afternoon seabreeze
boundary. Temperatures top out in the lower to middle 90`s today and
Friday, with morning temperatures starting off in the lower to
middle 70`s. Slightly better rain chances enter the picture this
weekend as upper ridging weakens, with isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms anticipated Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures remain hot overall, with afternoon highs topping out in
the lower to middle 90`s and heat indices in the 100 to 105 range.
Morning temperatures offer no relief as middle to upper 70`s become
common to start the day Saturday into early next week.

As we head into next week, we will see a pretty substantial pattern
change start to take shape as upper ridging shifts southwest and
upper troughing becomes dominant. There is already a pretty decent
signal for widespread moderate to heavy rainfall across the region,
particularly as we head into the early to middle part of next week.
It`s too early to get into the details on things, but overall
deterministic and ensemble guidance supports a favorable pattern for
heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding potential during this
timeframe. The axis of heaviest rainfall will be contingent on the
evolution of the cold front as it stalls across the gulf coast
states and any shortwaves rounding the base of the parent trough.

A Moderate risk of rip currents begins today and will last for the
foreseeable future. While the morning may start off as a Low risk,
the risk gradually ramps up to a Moderate this afternoon. Onshore
winds strengthen quite a bit as we head into early next week, and
it`s likely for the risk to increase to a High sometime late Monday
into Tuesday towards the end of the current forecast period. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR under southerly flow expected over most of the area through
the forecast. Local drops in VISBYs to low end MVFR due to fog
possible in favored areas.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Light onshore flow will continue today. A diurnal pattern develops
Friday through the weekend with light westerly flow at night and
southwesterly flow during the day. Moderate onshore flow returns in
the early to middle part of next week. No impacts expected other
than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms this
weekend. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      90  73  92  75 /   0  10  20   0
Pensacola   89  76  91  78 /   0   0  10   0
Destin      88  77  89  78 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   94  72  94  75 /   0   0  20  10
Waynesboro  94  72  94  74 /   0   0  10  10
Camden      93  72  94  74 /   0   0  10  20
Crestview   94  71  95  75 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$