513
FXUS64 KMOB 030031
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
631 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 609 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

 - Well above normal temperatures will continue through the week.

 - Fog development is possible each night this week, especially
   the middle to latter part of the week. Fog could become dense
   in spots.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Now through Monday...

An upper level ridge builds north over the eastern Conus into mid
week, then shifts east, becoming an upper high centered over the
northern Caribbean by the end of the coming weekend. A surface ridge
builds west over the Southeast into midweek in response, bringing a
more organized onshore flow to the northern Gulf coast. Strongest
onshore flow is indicated to be over the Lower Mississippi River
Valley. Deep layer moisture return is indicated to be limited over
the western half of the Southeast until the upper ridge shifts east
of the Eastern Seaboard. Even then, deep layer precipitable h20
values generally remain in the 1.1"-1.3" in most of the guidance
through mid week. Models soundings show good moisture return below
10k`, so nightly fog development is expected through the week,
especially west of the Alabama River into mid week. Will need to
monitor for dense fog developing, with the stronger low level flow
leading to a struggle between stratus or fog development. Guidance
is indicating the influx of deep moisture shifting eastward from the
Lower Mississippi River Valley in the latter half of the week,
bringing rain back to mainly western and northwestern half of the
forecast area, and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
for the weekend.

Subsidence from the upper ridge will bring temperatures well above
seasonal norms. Highs in the low to mid 80s,upper 70s along the
coast, are expected through the coming weekend. Low temperatures in
the mid 50s to near 60 tonight rise into the mid to upper 60s for
the weekend.

Persistent onshore flow increasing onshore swell will be counter
balanced by a decreasing tidal cycle through mid week, keeping the
risk of dangerous Rip Currents at a Low to Moderate level this week.
As the tidal cycle begins to increase at the end of the week though
the weekend, the risk of Rip Currents rises to Moderate to High in
response.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place at issuance time. Over the
next few hours, IFR or lower ceilings should begin to develop
across the area and will linger in place through the overnight
hours. Patchy fog should also begin to develop across much of the
area late this evening and into the overnight hours. Greatest
coverage looks to be over southwest Alabama and southeast
Mississippi and some of this fog could become dense in spots. Fog
should dissipate a little after sunrise Tuesday morning and
ceilings should gradually lift through the late morning hours. VFR
conditions are expected to return by Tuesday afternoon. Light
southeasterly flow tonight will increase to around 10-15 knots by
Tuesday afternoon. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1146 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

A surface ridge building west over the Southeast will bring
a general light to moderate southeast to south flow to area waters
through the week into the weekend.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      59  78  57  80 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   59  72  58  75 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      58  72  59  73 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   52  81  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  57  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      55  80  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   52  80  52  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$