663
FXUS64 KMOB 091057
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
557 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 556 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

 - Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall potentially
   resulting in localized flash flooding remain possible through
   Monday.

 - A Moderate risk of rip currents will occur through the
   upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A zonal flow pattern persists over the forecast region through
Sunday as a large upper trof pattern remains across much of the
Plains to the interior eastern states. A series of vigorous
shortwaves continue to move across the area meanwhile, aided by a
remnant upper low currently over Texas which shears out
downstream. Rounds of convection are anticipated to develop and
progress across the area in response to this pattern, although
timing these has proved difficult due to the inherently noisy
series of shortwaves. That said, the first round of convection is
anticipated to occur from late tonight through the early afternoon
likely in the form of an MCS, with some convection lingering into
the evening hours. Model soundings indicate that the convection
that develops late tonight will probably be elevated, and it`s
not clear if convection will manage to become surface based on
Saturday. Lapse rates within the mixed layer appear to range from
6.5 to possibly 7.5 C/km, and if these higher end lapse rates are
realized and shear profiles prove to be favorable, then the
convection may be able to support a risk of large hail and
possibly strong wind gusts. Locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible through the day.

The amount of convective coverage on Sunday remains difficult to
ascertain, but with the continuing series of shortwaves have opted
for chance to likely pops. Shear values look low on Sunday and
0-6 km bulk shear values typically range from 20-30 knots, but
steep mid level lapse rates are possible. Will need to continue to
monitor this period at this point, though storms with large hail
and strong wind gusts are possible especially if more favorable
shear values are realized. The broad upper trof pattern amplifies
over the eastern half of the CONUS Sunday night into Monday, then
moves off into the western Atlantic on Tuesday. An associated
surface low is expected to meanwhile bring a cold front through
the forecast area late Sunday night into Monday morning, with the
front stalling near the coast before moving offshore later in the
afternoon. Have gone with chance to likely pops Sunday night
increasing to predominately likely pops on Monday, then dry
conditions develop Monday night in the wake of the front.
Favorable shear values appear to be in place on Monday along with
sufficient instability to continue the potential for strong to
possibly some severe storms. Dry conditions are expected to
follow for Tuesday through next Saturday. A low risk of rip
currents is expected for Alabama beaches through Saturday night
while the western Florida panhandle beaches are anticipated to
have a moderate risk. A moderate risk follows for all beach areas
from Sunday through Monday, then a low risk is expected on
Tuesday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

In general, VFR conditions are in place at issuance time. Over the
next few hours, ceilings are expected to drop to MVFR or IFR as
another round of showers and storms pushes through the area.
Expect visibility reductions in some of the heavier activity. Rain
chances start to lower by the late afternoon and we should dry out
by the evening hours. VFR conditions may briefly return for the
evening. Winds will generally be southeasterly to southerly today,
although they may briefly turn northerly in the wake of this
morning`s storms. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 556 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A light to moderate onshore will abruptly turn to an offshore flow
this afternoon as a line of showers and thunderstorms sweeps through
the area. Winds will then be erratic late this afternoon and
evening as the convection lingers before a light onshore flow
resumes going into Sunday. A light southwesterly to westerly flow on
Monday proceeding a cold front will shift to a moderate to
occasionally strong northerly Monday night behind the front. Winds
may increase to advisory levels briefly on Monday night. A light to
moderate northeasterly flow Tuesday morning will diminish going into
midweek. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      79  67  83  68 /  90  40  50  50
Pensacola   79  69  81  70 /  80  30  50  50
Destin      79  70  80  70 /  80  30  40  40
Evergreen   78  63  84  64 /  90  40  60  60
Waynesboro  78  64  83  64 /  80  40  50  60
Camden      76  62  82  63 /  90  30  60  60
Crestview   80  65  85  65 /  90  40  60  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$