067
FXUS64 KMOB 301808
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
108 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

An upper ridge off the southeast US will build westward into the
Gulf through late week and into the weekend. As it progresses
westward, winds aloft will transition from southwesterly to
westerly on Friday and will linger through Saturday. By Sunday and
into next week, weak upper troughing sets up across the southeast
US. This should allow for a weakening frontal boundary to move
into the local area from the north, likely stalling somewhere
across the area. With PWATs generally above 2 inches and forcing
induced by shortwave impulses moving within the flow aloft and the
approaching frontal boundary at the surface, scattered to
numerous showers and storms are expected to develop each day.
Activity will generally follow a typical diurnal pattern, with
showers and storms developing during the morning over our marine
zones and along the coast, pulse-type storms developing during the
afternoon hours, and activity eventually dissipating during the
evening due to the loss of daytime heating. As we typically see
with this type of pattern, cannot rule out a few stronger storms
capable of producing gusty downburst winds and small hail, as well
as very heavy rainfall.

Highs through Saturday will be in the low to mid 90s. Went ahead and
issued another Heat Advisory for most of the area for tomorrow.
Outside of convection, heat indices will likely top out in the 105-
110 degree range, especially along coastal counties and counties
west of the Tombigbee River. At this time, heat indices are expected
to remain below criteria over interior south central Alabama..
generally around 102-107. This pattern should hold through
Friday, and potentially into Saturday. As the front moves in and
stalls overhead, highs will lower slightly further into the upper
80s to low 90s by the Sunday through Wednesday timeframe. Heat
indices will likely lower to below Advisory levels area-wide by
this period. The rip current risk will generally be low through
the week, although we are expecting a brief bump to moderate on
Thursday for our western Florida Panhandle beaches due to
increased onshore flow. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

General VFR conditions with local MVFR/VFR conditions in
convection along the AL Gulf coast were noted at 17z. Am expecting
this convection to spread out and affect area TAF sites this
afternoon. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
and move inland this afternoon, bringing local drops in conditions
to low end MVFR levels. The convection will weaken and decrease
in coverage this evening as the day`s heat is lost. More showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the coast in the
morning, bringing local drops in conditions to mid MVFR levels.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow will continue
through the end of the week. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or
less. No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and
seas possible near thunderstorms. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      77  93  77  93  76  93  74  90 /  30  60  20  70  30  70  40  70
Pensacola   80  92  80  93  79  92  76  89 /  20  40  20  50  30  70  50  70
Destin      82  92  81  91  80  91  78  89 /  20  30  20  40  20  70  50  70
Evergreen   75  95  76  95  74  93  72  89 /  30  50  20  60  30  80  50  70
Waynesboro  74  94  75  95  73  92  72  91 /  40  60  20  60  30  60  30  60
Camden      75  94  76  94  74  92  72  88 /  40  50  30  60  30  60  40  60
Crestview   76  94  76  94  75  93  73  90 /  20  50  10  70  20  80  50  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ051-052-059-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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