400
FXUS64 KMOB 172339
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
639 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Now through Thursday...

Through Friday, flooding problems will be the first issue to cover,
with high heat indices and possible Heat Advisories from Sunday into
the middle of the coming week the next issue to address.

The first issue comes about as an westward moving upper system on
the south side of an upper ridge over the Southeast moves off over
Louisiana, with an attendant surface low moving west over Southern
Mississippi. This is a bit slower/further north than most guidance
was advertising yesterday. For the forecast area, the VWPs for the
area show deep layer south(eastern portions of the forecast area) to
southeasterly (western portions) flow continues over the forecast
area and nearby. Looking at the latest SPC mesoanalysis,
precipitable h20 values currently range from 2.2"-2.3" along the
coast to 2"-2.2" over the northern half of the forecast area, not
quite as moist as guidance was originally advertising. Bands of
showers and thunderstorms continue to move inland. This convection
has been less than strong so far, with verifiable rainfall amounts
so far totaling around a half an inch or less since sunrise. Plenty
of breaks between the clouds are in evidence on the satellite shot,
though, so am expecting the convection to increase in strength this
afternoon as MLCapes rise to around 1500J/kg, and higher rainfall
amounts into this evening before the loss of the day`s heating
begins to weaken the storms. Am expecting this weakening to be
slower than expected, especially over the southern half of the
forecast area, with flow over the northern Gulf passing over water
temperatures in the upper 80s. After sunrise Friday, with the
forecast area heating up, instability rises(guidance is advertising
MLCapes rising to around 2000-2500J/kg) and the forecast area sees
increasing coverage and strength in convection for the day. For the
possible water issues, there is still concern with training cells
bringing local flooding issues, especially to our southern-most
corridor of counties as they have the best chance. With a bit less
moisture in the upper levels, the taller storms may get rowdy,
bringing locally strong winds, especially further inland from the
coast.

Saturday into the coming week, the center of the surface ridge moves
west along the northern Gulf coast. A surface ridge stretching west
over the central/northern Gulf rebuilds, bringing a more westerly
flow. The soupy airmass eases a bit, with precipitable h20 values
dropping below 2" for the weekend. This drop is temporary, with an
upper level shortwave system moves west on the east side of the
upper high, and bringing a more easterly flow to the Southeast,
bringing moisture inland from the western Atlantic. By Tuesday,
precipitable h20 values rise back into the 2.1"-2.3" range over the
Southeast, and with the upper ridge meandering around over the
southeastern quarter of the Conus, temperatures rising back into the
mid to upper 90s for the beginning of the week will work with the
increasingly moist airmass to bring high Heat Indices rising into
Heat Advisory (>=108F) criteria as early as Sunday, definitely
Monday and Tuesday over the western half of the forecast area, with
the moisture influx from the east bringing an increase in rain
chances into mid week. Also helping is shortwave energy from the
upper trough trailing the upper ridge beginning to move west over
the Gulf, on the south side of the upper ridge. With this scenario
of the passing upper energy close to the current situation, will
need to monitor.

Taking a closer look at temperatures, high temperatures in the upper
80s to near 90 today will rise into the mid to upper 90s by Sunday,
remaining there through Tuesday before seeing a bit of a drop
Wednesday and Thursday as rain chances increase. Low temperature
remain in the mid 70s well north of I-10, upper 70s to near 80 south
of I-10 to the coast.

An increasing tidal cycle is working with an increasing onshore
swell from the moderate onshore flow to bring a High Risk of Rip
Currents through Friday night. The Rip Risk drops to a Low Risk by
Monday as the onshore swell decreases with the easing onshore flow.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Generally VFR flight category prevails outside of isolated showers
and storms through this evening and the overnight hours. VFR to
MVFR flight category prevails Friday as a more widespread coverage
of showers and storms begins in the morning hours, lingering into
the late afternoon hours. Winds remain generally out of the south
to south-southwest at around 10 knots. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

A moderate to at times strong onshore flow is expected through the
end of the week on the lee side of the exiting system. Winds shift
to westerly through the weekend into the coming week as a surface
ridge organizes over the central Gulf.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  88  75  91  75  93  76  95 /  50  80  20  80  10  50  10  50
Pensacola   79  89  79  91  78  93  79  95 /  40  70  20  70  10  40  10  50
Destin      81  91  81  92  80  93  81  95 /  40  60  10  50  10  30  10  50
Evergreen   73  92  73  94  74  96  74  97 /  20  60  10  60  10  30  10  40
Waynesboro  73  90  73  92  73  96  74  96 /  20  80  10  60  10  30   0  30
Camden      73  91  73  91  74  94  74  95 /  20  70  10  50  10  30  10  30
Crestview   74  91  74  93  74  96  75  97 /  30  70  10  70   0  50  10  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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