Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
107 FXUS64 KMOB 171732 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 A general northeasterly flow pattern will remain in place through Wednesday as a large upper ridge lingers over the central US. With this flow pattern in place, a slightly drier air mass will continue filtering into the area (PWATs generally around 1.5 to 1.8 inches). This will help to keep our rain chances rather low (around 20-30%) through Wednesday. Although convective coverage is low, the drier air aloft could allow for a couple stronger storms, capable of producing gusty winds and/or small hail, to develop. The pattern begins to transition by late week as a weak upper trough digs into the local area, along with an associated frontal boundary at the surface. Deep-layer flow will shift back to a general southwesterly flow pattern in response, allowing for deep moisture to surge back into the region. This will help to bring back scattered to numerous showers and storms to the region by late week and into the weekend. With the drier air in place and lower convective coverage expected, highs through Wednesday will rise into the low 90s along the coast and the mid to upper 90s inland. The good news though is that heat indices will likely remain below Heat Advisory criteria as the drier air should allow our afternoon dew points to mix down into the upper 60s to low 70. With higher rain chances returning by Thursday, highs for the remainder of the period will lower to the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows through the entire period will generally remain in the low to mid 70s. A Low Risk of rip currents remain in place through the week. /96 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon with brief reductions in ceilings and visbys. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 A diurnal flow pattern is anticipated through the midweek, with an offshore flow developing at night, becoming onshore in the afternoon hours. Otherwise, no impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 75 95 74 95 74 95 75 93 / 10 30 10 30 10 30 10 40 Pensacola 77 93 77 92 77 93 78 91 / 10 30 10 30 10 30 10 40 Destin 78 92 78 92 78 92 79 91 / 10 30 10 30 10 30 20 40 Evergreen 73 97 72 97 73 97 73 94 / 10 20 0 20 10 20 10 30 Waynesboro 73 96 73 97 73 97 72 94 / 10 20 10 20 10 20 20 40 Camden 74 96 74 96 73 97 73 94 / 10 10 10 10 10 20 10 30 Crestview 73 95 72 95 73 95 73 93 / 10 30 10 30 10 30 10 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob