151
FXUS64 KMOB 281150
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
650 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

  - Extreme Heat Warning in effect for coastal areas today with a
    Heat Advisory for remainder of the area. Additional Heat
    Warnings and Heat Advisories are possible Wednesday.

  - High Risk of rip currents is expected to return by next
    weekend for all area beaches.

  - Daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances increase in
    the middle to latter part of the week. A few storms may
    produce strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and dangerous cloud
    to ground lightning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Latest guidance has trended downward on convective chances late
this afternoon and early evening as the only focus to drive
convection will be the developing sea breeze. Lowered the pops to
slight chance to low end chance across the coastal counties. Any
storms that can form will be capable of localized strong wind
gusts.

The biggest hazard today will be the very dangerous heat with high
temperatures ranging from the upper 90s to lower 100s, with heat
index values exceeding 112 degrees along the coast, and 108
degrees elsewhere.

Forecast updates have been sent and additional updates will be
issued later today as needed. /JLH

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

An upper trof oriented near/along the East Coast begins to amplify
Wednesday followed by a significant expansion of the upper trof
Friday into Saturday to encompass the eastern half of the CONUS. A
large upper ridge centered over the central states which also
extends into the north central Gulf coast begins to pull back
from the region on Wednesday, followed by a retreat to the western
half of the CONUS later in the week. A surface low located well
to the north brings a weak cold front into the forecast area on
Wednesday which then meanders over the area through Thursday. The
weak boundary may persist over the area on Friday before
dissipating, with a surface low meanwhile approaching from the
Plains and is anticipated to move into the eastern states this
weekend. A series of shortwaves and the sea breeze are anticipated
to support some convective development on Tuesday and have gone
with slight chance to chance pops mainly for the coastal counties.
Slight chance to chance pops follow for the entire area on
Wednesday, then rain chances trend up to chance to likely pops
for Thursday. Mostly chance to possibly likely pops follow for
Friday, then trend to likely to categorical pops by Sunday.

The main concern for the forecast continues to be dangerously hot
conditions Tuesday and for Wednesday as well. High temperatures
on Tuesday will be mostly in the upper 90s to around 100 with
similar values for Wednesday except that highs will probably be
limited to the mid 90s well inland. Heat index values on Tuesday
mostly range from 108 to 112 except for higher values of 113 near
the coast. Heat index values on Wednesday look similar though
will probably be limited to around 105 over the inland portions of
south central Alabama. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect
from 10 am to 9 pm Tuesday for areas near the coast while a Heat
Advisory is in effect for the remainder of the area. Another
Extreme Heat Warning will likely become necessary for coastal
areas on Wednesday as well, with another Heat Advisory for much of
the remainder of the area. Highs moderate on Thursday to the
lower to mid 90s which will probably keep heat index values below
Heat Advisory criteria of 108, then highs gradually trend to the
upper 80s by Sunday as rain chances steadily increase. A low risk
of rip currents is expected for Alabama beaches on Tuesday with a
moderate risk for western Florida panhandle beaches. For Wednesday
through Friday, a high risk of rip currents is expected for the
western Florida panhandle beaches while a moderate risk is
anticipated for the Alabama beaches. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today outside of any isolated to
scattered storms. Winds will remain between 6-12 knots with
directional shifts associated with the developing bay and sea
breezes. Visibilities and ceilings will be reduced in any storms
that impact the TAF sites. /JLH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A diurnal wind pattern is expected is expected to persist through
the week with light to moderate onshore winds each day driven by
the sea breeze and light to moderate offshore winds each night
driven by the land breeze. Storm coverage will increase by mid
week with widespread coverage by next weekend. Winds and waves
will be locally higher near any storms along the increased threat
for dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop over the Gulf waters
by next weekend. /JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      99  78  98  76 /  30  10  40  50
Pensacola   97  81  97  79 /  30  10  40  60
Destin      94  82  94  80 /  20  10  40  60
Evergreen   97  77  96  73 /   0  10  40  30
Waynesboro 100  78  98  75 /   0   0  50  30
Camden      97  78  93  73 /   0   0  40  20
Crestview   99  78  98  75 /  20  10  50  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>060-261>264.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201-203-205.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$