102
FXUS64 KMOB 262313
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
613 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

The heat begins to crank as we roll deeper into the weekend and into
early next week.

But first, showers and storms continues to develop across the area
this afternoon with persistent deep onshore flow on the western
periphery of a ridge. Highest coverage this afternoon will reside
west of I-65. Not anticipating severe storms this afternoon, but we
cannot rule out minor, nuisance type flooding (given that these are
efficient rainmakers again today). These showers and storms are
tempering the temperatures somewhat this afternoon - a luxury we
won`t have in the coming days.

The high continues to build westward on Sunday and anchors across
the Southeast and Deep South through Monday. Rain chances will be
suppressed both days and the heat begins to climb. A Heat Advisory
is now in effect late Sunday morning through the afternoon hours for
heat indices up to 109F across all of southeast Mississippi, the
coastal counties in Alabama, and the coastal portions of northwest
Florida. Monday will be the hottest day with highs topping out in
the upper 90s area-wide and many spots in northwest Florida and
south-central Alabama tagging 100F. Heat indices will creep up to
112F by Monday. Monday`s heat, in particular, will be dangerous and
it needs to be stressed that there will be LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT OVERNIGHT as lows barely get out of the 80s for inland
communities and hover in the low 80s all night at the beaches. The
Heat Risk also reaches the EXTREME category in a few spots on
Monday, meaning you need to take more precautions than usual to
protect yourself from this heat (this will not be our average
summertime heat, y`all).

The high continues trekking westward on Tuesday, keeping the area
toasty, but the northeasterly upper level flow begins to get our
attention a bit more. Subtle shortwaves pivot around the high and
dive into the Southeast, especially as we head into the Tuesday
night through Wednesday timeframe. Rain chances increase Wednesday
through the rest of the week as onshore flow becomes established
again later in the week.

Beach Forecast - Lifeguards reported STRONG rip currents this
morning for some of the northwest Florida beaches with all beaches
flying red flags this morning. The rip current risk was increased to
a HIGH RISK for this morning and afternoon. Conditions should
subside as we go into the evening hours with a MODERATE risk
expected on Sunday. Rip current MOS probabilities indicate a LOW
risk for much of the upcoming week. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

VFR flight category prevails for most locations outside of
isolated showers or storms through the day Sunday. Winds will
remain light and variable through Sunday near or less than 5
knots, becoming generally southerly around 5 to 10 knots nearer
the coast by mid afternoon as the sea breeze advances inland.
MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms today. Light westerly to
southwesterly flow is expected again Sunday afternoon before
winds turn northwesterly overnight. Westerly to northwesterly flow
is expected early next week before onshore flow sets up again in
the middle to late part of next week. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  95  76  98  78  97  75  92 /   0  20   0  10  10  50  50  70
Pensacola   77  95  78  98  81  97  78  91 /   0  10   0   0  10  50  60  60
Destin      79  95  81  98  82  96  79  92 /   0  10   0   0  10  50  60  60
Evergreen   72  97  75 100  77  98  75  93 /  10  10   0   0  10  50  50  70
Waynesboro  72  96  74  98  76  96  74  92 /  10  10   0   0  10  40  40  70
Camden      73  96  75  98  76  96  75  94 /  10  10   0   0  10  40  40  70
Crestview   73  97  75 100  77  98  74  93 /   0  10   0  10  10  60  50  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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