723
FXUS64 KMOB 091614
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1114 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

 - Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall potentially
   resulting in localized flash flooding remain possible through
   Monday.

 - A Moderate risk of rip currents will occur today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually push offshore this
morning with stratiform precipitation remaining over much of the
area through early this afternoon. Generally anticipate this to
continue shifting offshore with light to moderate precipitation
coming to an end by mid afternoon. Dry weather conditions should
prevail in the wake of this into this evening as the area remains
convectively overturned.

The anticipation is for mostly dry conditions to prevail for much
of the day Sunday, with perhaps an isolated shower or storm during
the afternoon hours associated with peak heating. Some guidance
suggests another MCS and associated shortwave potentially moving
towards the area from the northwest late Sunday afternoon into
early Sunday evening. However, shear will be generally weaker and
we will likely struggle to have appreciable moisture return ahead
of this, so current expectation is for this to decay prior to
reaching the forecast area and at best light to moderate showers
and storms moving through Sunday evening. Attention turns once
again towards the next more potent shortwave and attendant cold
front Monday morning into the afternoon hours. Forecast guidance
seems divergent on the exact evolution of things as the quality of
moisture return remains in question owing to the preceding days
of strong cold pools shifting offshore shunting the warm front
well south of the local marine waters. If this warm front can
make it back onshore, we could see some severe threat materialize
as this system rolls through. This will remain something to
monitor over the next 36 hours or so as CAM guidance has generally
struggled substantially with the evolution of each shortwave
these past couple days and their respective convective evolutions.

What we see these next 48 hours is probably going to be it for
any appreciable rainfall for the foreseeable future. Once we get
past Monday, the chances for rain drop precipitously and we return
to a dry weather forecast Tuesday through the end of the week.
Temperatures return to near or above normal for highs in the 80`s
and lows generally stay in the upper 50`s and lower 60`s. The rip
current risk remains a Moderate for today and Monday, with a Low
risk expected the rest of the period. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

IFR and MVFR ceilings mostly prevail this morning, along with
localized LIFR ceilings, ahead a large storm complex moving into
the area from the west. Reductions to visibility to IFR and MVFR
levels are expected with these showers and thunderstorms, and
could briefly drop to LIFR levels in some of the heavier
activity. Rain chances start to diminish this afternoon and should
largely dissipate by early evening. VFR conditions will likely
return for the overnight hours. Winds will generally be
southeasterly to southerly today, although they may briefly turn
northerly in the wake of this morning`s storms. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 556 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A light to moderate onshore will abruptly turn to an offshore flow
this afternoon as a line of showers and thunderstorms sweeps
through the area. Winds will then be erratic late this afternoon
and evening as the convection lingers before a light onshore flow
resumes going into Sunday. A light southwesterly to westerly flow
on Monday proceeding a cold front will shift to a moderate to
occasionally strong northerly Monday night behind the front. Winds
may increase to advisory levels briefly on Monday night. A light
to moderate northeasterly flow Tuesday morning will diminish going
into midweek. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  83  68  82 /  40  50  50  60
Pensacola   69  81  70  81 /  30  50  50  70
Destin      70  80  70  80 /  30  40  40  80
Evergreen   63  84  64  81 /  40  60  60  60
Waynesboro  64  83  64  79 /  40  50  60  50
Camden      62  82  63  78 /  30  60  60  60
Crestview   65  85  65  83 /  40  60  40  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$