921
FXUS64 KMOB 242326
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
526 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR conditions this evening will be followed by patchy fog
developing over much of the area overnight with IFR conditions
possible. VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail on Monday,
although MVFR conditions will be possible mainly over portions of
the coastal counties with isolated showers. Winds become calm or
light and variable this evening, then a southerly to southwesterly
flow at 5 to 10 knots develops on Monday. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday night)
Issued at 356 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Today has been a transition day to a more mild pattern in the near
term. Upper level zonal flow with low level southerly flow will
prevail through Monday. This will result in warmer temperatures and
gradually increasingly low level moisture. A weak shortwave embedded
in the zonal flow will approach from the west by Monday morning. Hi-
res guidance has been consistent in developing isolated showers
across coastal AL/NW FL Monday morning into Monday afternoon ahead
of the shortwave in a weak warm air advection regime. Given this,
introduced a slight chance of rain Monday for those areas. These
chances may need to be increased a bit more if model trends
continue. The hi-res models are also indicating the potential for
patchy fog tonight, especially over inland areas. Some of the
guidance indicates it could become locally dense, but this will
likely hinge on how extensive cloud cover becomes ahead of the
shortwave overnight. For now, will just mention patchy fog in the
forecast. Lows tonight will be 15-20 degrees warmer than last night.
Highs on Monday will top out in the mid to upper 70s.

A stronger high latitude shortwave will move across the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. This will send a
cold front south toward the area, entering the forecast area late
Monday night and pushing offshore by late Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday
evening. The front will slow down as it nears the coast due it
becoming more parallel with the upper flow. Despite the best upper
level forcing remaining well north of the area, isolated to
scattered showers are likely along and just ahead of the front, with
the best rain chances being late Monday night/early Tuesday morning
across the far northwestern portions of the forecast area. Rain
amounts will be light. With the front south of the coast by Tuesday
night, lows will cool down into 40s well inland with low to mid 50s
along the I-10 corridor. 34/JFB

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Winter is coming! The extended is looking rather cold period for
the end of November into early December. The first big push of
cold air will come on Thursday as a positively tilted trough rips
across the Great Lakes Thursday into Thursday night. This system
looks rather strung out with the best forcing likely passing off
to our north but the area does get clipped by ample height falls
and some upper diffluence. As a result some showers and maybe a
few thunderstorms will be possible along a crashing cold front
Thursday afternoon and into the evening on Thanksgiving. While
these systems do not tend to bring severe threats it was
interesting to note steepening mid level lapse rates on area model
soundings with rather strong vertical wind shear. Would not be
shocked to see maybe a marginal severe threat develop along and
north of highway 84 if some better forcing and instability can
develop but we have several days to keep an eye on this. Luckily
this system will be rather progressive and should clear out rather
quickly leading to a rather potent arctic air blast.

Temperatures will be the talk of the extended more than likely as
lows will drop back into the 20s and 30s across most of the area
Friday through Sunday. Several re-enforcing shots of cold dry air
will be possible heading into early next week and some freeze
products may be needed for areas that have not seen a freeze so
far this year. BB/03

MARINE...
Issued at 356 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

No significant impacts are expected through Wednesday. A strong cold
front will move through the region Thursday/Thursday night with
strong offshore flow developing in the wake of the front. A Small
Craft Advisory will likely be needed for late Thursday into Friday.
Seas will build to 4-6 ft in the wake of this front over the open
Gulf waters. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      57  77  62  73  52  75  65  74 /  10  10  20  20   0   0  20  30
Pensacola   62  77  66  76  56  75  67  76 /  10  20  10  20   0   0  20  30
Destin      63  77  67  77  59  76  69  76 /   0  20  10  20   0   0  20  30
Evergreen   49  77  58  70  46  75  61  72 /   0   0  20  20   0   0  20  40
Waynesboro  51  77  56  68  44  75  61  69 /   0   0  40   0   0   0  30  30
Camden      50  75  57  67  42  73  61  68 /   0   0  40  10   0   0  30  40
Crestview   50  79  58  77  50  77  63  78 /   0  20  10  20   0   0  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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