922
FXUS64 KMOB 070534
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1234 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Now through Wednesday Night...

Our confidence in a bout of heavy rainfall from late this evening
through daybreak Wednesday remains high. Based on the latest QPF
from the Weather Prediction Service, we were confident in expanding
the Flood Watch eastward to now include Baldwin, Mobile, and
Washington counties in Alabama. As clouds continue to increase and
thicken over the region, precipitable water values will ramp up to
around 2 inches by midnight. The upper closed low pressure area
responsible for the numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
tonight is currently centered over New Mexico, and will move east-
northeastward to over Missouri by late Wednesday night. Even though
the first round of heavy rain moves out over the Gulf Wednesday
morning, numerous upper shortwaves and impulses will continue to
pass over our area in southwest flow aloft through the remainder of
the near term, thus keeping scattered to numerous showers and a
chance of thunderstorms persisting.

Flash Flooding Potential...

The expanded Flood Watch remains in effect from this evening through
Thursday afternoon. We continue to have increasing confidence on the
evolution of flash flooding potential across Flood Watch area.
Widespread rainfall totals across the watch area should range from 3
to 5", with locally higher amounts. We anticipate a general 1 to 3"
of rainfall across the remainder of our forecast area.

In addition...MLCape values tonight remain in the 500 and 1000 J/KG
range across southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. However,
Bulk Shear values have increased to between 45 to 55 knots. So, the
near storm environment is now supports the development of a few
strong to marginal severe storms with localized wind gusts up to 55
mph.

Low temperatures tonight and Wednesday night are expected to be in
the lower to middle 60s interior areas, and from 65 to 70 degrees
closer to the coast. High temperatures Wednesday should range from
80 to 85 degrees most areas. A Moderate Risk of rip currents will
occur through the near term. /22

Thursday through Monday...

An upper level low across the southern plains will continue to
gradually shear out into an open trough through the end of the
week. A broad southwest flow on the south side of the positive
tilt trough will bring several shortwaves across the area through
Friday. This will keep region locked into scattered to numerous
showers and storms at times through Saturday. Global models now
agree on the base of the trough cutting off into an upper low just
west of the area on Saturday and drifting north or northeast
through Monday. The presence of the upper low and associated cold
pocket aloft will maintain and unsettled pattern into Monday.
With extensive cloud cover and coverage of showers and storms,
temperatures will remain mild with highs topping out in the upper
70s to lower 80s each day and lows in the lower 60s. Over the
weekend temperatures fall a bit more during the overnight hours
into the middle to upper 50s inland and lower 60`s near the coast.
/13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

An area of rain will overspread the forecast area in the late
night hours. Drops in conditions to low end MVFR/IFR are expected
soon after the precipitation starts. These conditions are
expected to last into Wednesday evening before this round of rain
begins to shift east of the forecast area. Ahead of the rain,
easterly winds of 5 to 10 knots are expected, shifting to
southerly around 10 knots after the rain begins.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Gusty and erratic strong surface winds could accompany the
complex of storms moving through the area late tonight through
Wednesday morning. Otherwise, expect a light to moderate easterly to
southeasterly flow to continue through midweek, becoming more
southerly on Thursday. A variable to light offshore flow is expected
late in the week as a cold front moves into the area and stalls. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ALZ052-261>266.

FL...None.
MS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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